Welcome back to our weekend Research Report and look inside all the macro-market driving forces for which we analyze the landscape alongside investors/traders. With only 4 trading weeks to go in 2020, it goes without saying that the macro-market outlook is likely to improve in 2021, given the unprecedented deteriorations in many macro-market factors we…...
Investors are increasingly embracing the recovery. We laid out our bullish 12 month view in our 2021 Outlook (Show Me the Money!) and spent last week talking with investors around the globe. Our call for higher earnings to drive returns seemed mostly consensus and we received little push back on our call for multiples to…...
Goldman Sachs chief political economist Alec Phillips Goldman Sachs now offers that it’s “base case” for the next fiscal relief package no longer anticipates a stimulus before 2021, resulting in a 50% cut to its Q4 GDP forecast, from 6% growth to 3%. Its chief political economist Alec Phillips writes that with Congress having recessed for Thanksgiving…...
Show Me the Money! 2020 was all about beta and understanding how equity markets trade in and around a recession that handed us the fattest pitch we’ve seen in a decade. 2021 will be much more about stock picking (alpha) and should favor those companies that can deliver earnings growth that isn’t already expected or…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) has surpassed its previous high among a global pandemic and an uncertain economy. The index is up almost 11% year-to-date, as investors anticipate more good news regarding a COVID-19 vaccine. Nonetheless, it proved a strange week in price action terms as Monday’s 4% gap up was almost erased by the end…...
The equity market is facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains in years. After a prolonged period of elevated risks (global trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, US election uncertainty, etc.), the outlook is significantly clearing up, especially with news of a highly effective COVID-19 vaccine. We expected an imminent vaccine outcome and a rotation…...
We remain committed bulls over next 6-12 months. When bull markets simultaneously begin with a new economic cycle, they typically last for years,not months or quarters. As such, we believe this bull market has a long way to run both in time and price. Our calls for a 10% correction in August and then again…...
After a significant 1-week drawdown in the major averages 2 weeks ago, the market had an even greater resurgence this past trading week. The equity markets may have caught a great many investors by surprise, but for those who “stayed the course“, remained unbiased and flexible, these are the traders/investors who proved the beneficiaries of…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we review the decline that was October and the potential market returns for November and beyond. The market has responded to the election with a robustness of breadth and has moved to focus…...
Correction right on schedule.2 weeks ago we called for a second 10% correction in as many months as we felt like investors were a bit too complacent on the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome, unlikely passage of a fiscal stimulus before the election and second wave of Covid-19. Fast forward to today and the S&P…...
