The J.P. Morgan View Growth versus virus now, vaccine versus virus later —an update on a conflict and a hope Cross-asset strategy: The dominant macro narrative of the past several weeks hasn’t changed much, and neither has the pattern of uneven advances across and within global markets. The reality of a booming economy versus the…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) flip flopped this week, but spent the last few days hovering around a 40-point range. The index closed Friday down just 0.19% YTD and is 4.77% below its record close set just 5 months ago. The benchmark index was up 1.25% for the week, while achieving a new bear-to-new bull market…...
This past trading week, the markets continued to look beyond the rising COVID-19 infection rate and toward a future economic and societal recovery. The S&P 500 (SPX) made a concerted effort to finish the trading week on a high note, which it succeeded in doing. The benchmark index rose 1.76% for the week and finished…...
Biotechnology | North America COVID-19: Increasing ConvictionMultiple Vaccine Candidates WillHave Pivotal Data Before YE20 While a pre-election result is possible, we see early-to-mid November as our base case for PhIII data. Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna appear slightly ahead of AstraZeneca for US PhIII data, though we note many details on the PhIIIs have not been disclosed…...
US Equity Strategy Election Implications for Equities, Democrat AgendaWinners and Losers With US election only a few months away, one scenario that has been of growing interest among investors is a potential Democratic sweep setting the stage for a shift in the legislative agenda. The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will…...
Volatility Review Monetizing the convexity risk premium, US structuredproduct dynamics, Positioning update Implied convexity continues to exhibit very high levels of stress and lags the recovery in other risk premia. We recommend monetizing this rich risk premium by selling Jun’21 variance swaps vs. buying 0.75x the vega notional in Jun’21 vol swaps on the S&P…...
2020 Mid-Year Outlook for Economies and Markets as the World Re-opens Summary and Replay of 2020 Mid-Year Outlook Virtual Meeting Global growth is set to rebound in 3Q on the easing of lockdown restrictions, emerging signs of economic recovery, and improving consumer sentiment, but investors should be more selective over the next six months as…...
Has the COVID-19 reemerging positive case ratio finally caught up to what many have described as a market that is overvalued, overheated and disconnected with “reality”? Whosever’s reality that might be? There are always doubts and conjectures when a market proves to consolidate, especially when the headlines are negative and flowing on a minute-by-minute basis.…...
After retreating some 4.7% in the previous week, the S&P 500 (SPX) took back some of the consolidation. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.86%, but the week didn’t seem as strong as it was given the latter trading days of the week and with Friday’s drop of just over a half percent. In…...
by Paul Christopher, CFA, Head of Global Market Strategy and Gary Schlossberg, Market Strategist Key takeaways We expect that the presidential and Senate races will be closely contested and decided, by voter reaction to the president’s handling of nationwide protests in May and June, and by how well the U.S. economy’s reopening is managed. Based…...
