Still Growing, In Spite of Geopolitical Headwinds

Well, that was much to do about nothing given the anticipation that came ahead of the trading week.  When it was all said and done, the S&P 500 moved all of 5 points higher for the week and once again finished within its weekly expected move.  What is truly remarkable about the drawdown from Q4…...

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Recession Fears Overhyped: SPX 3,000 Eyed

Good morning fellow investors. This week’s Research Report will hit with greater brevity than you’ve seen with many of our Research Reports since we launched in December 2017.  Also, it will be solely delivered by Seth Golden, Finom Group’s chief market strategists and managing director of the Golden Capital Portfolio. I’m often asked the following…...

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Bill Miller: Some Reflections on the Bull at 10

1Q 2019 Market Letter The bull market that began in early March 2009 passed its 10th birthday last month, something no one expected when the S&P 500 bottomed at 666. The economic expansion that has accompanied it — as usual, the market led the beginning of the expansion by about 6 months — will become…...

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Q1 Earning Season Peaks This Week, Will S&P 500 Follow?

For the S&P 500 (SPX) it proved to be the week that investors went to sleep, as the benchmark index logged a .08% drop in the holiday shortened trading week.  S&P 500 Review While the trading proved relatively unchanged even with a significant data dump on Thursday that included monthly Retail sales, Jobless Claims, Leading…...

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Q1 2019 Earnings & Volatility Positioning

One of the issues with suggesting that the S&P 500 (SPX) over reacted to a growth slowdown in Q4 2018, is that is merely a human assessment, something that has an increasingly insignificant role in the equity markets.  The equity markets are increasingly underpinned with programmed algorithms and found with less and less active fund…...

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Q1 Earnings Season and S&P 500 – 2,900 Approach

Did anything change during the trading week to reinforce our bullish outlook on both the economy and equity market for 2019?  That’s the question we should all be considering, given the S&P 500 (SPX) is only 1.5% off its all-time trading high level.  The benchmark index has rallied roughly 23% from its December 2018 lows…...

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Will The Ides Of March Turn With A Spring Surprise For Markets?

After a lackluster week for equities in the middle of the month and heading into the end of the quarter, last week equities found their footing once again and finished higher for the week once again. The S&P 500 (SPX) finished higher by 1.2% for the week and is now up some 13% year-to-date.  Although…...

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Yield Curve Inverts, Taking Equity Markets Down: What Next?

It’s not the way bulls desired the week to end, especially after a strong Thursday performance, but when algorithms kick into high gear, they generally work toward extremes.  The S&P 500 (SPX) was up for most of the week and had broken above 2,850, but that was before the German bund fell into negative yield…...

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Risk Asset Prices Rerated for Growth: Has the Global Economy Found It’s Low Period?

There are two more trading weeks remaining in the Q1 2019 period. The S&P 500 (SPX) is up some 12.5% already this year and has managed to express this rally with net outflows and with outsized participation to the most defensive sectors. Seriously folks, the Utilities Select Sector Spiders (XLU) hit an all-time high last…...

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Market Resistance Provides Rebalancing Opportunities

Coming into the trading week, most every index and index ETF was expressing overbought conditions. With all the major indices falling greater than 2% to complete the trading week, indices and index ETFs have now worked off some of their overbought conditions. (Table from Bespoke Investment Group) You’ll notice within the table that all index…...

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