Final Trading Day of 2018 Lay Ahead

Good weekend to everyone and with the final trading day of calendar year 2018, we can’t help but desire the calendar year to end with some semblance of positivity. Last week kicked-off a holiday shortened trading with much anxiety being created for investors on Christmas Eve and as the market meltdown continued. The S&P 500…...

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End-of-Year Analyst Notes: Looking Out Toward 2019

J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Weekly Recap – Fri 12.21.18 Trading Desk Commentary; For Institutional Investors Talking Points for the Week • What happened this week – stocks sank pretty much everywhere on the planet this week as equity markets limp into 2019 bruised and battered. The big events included: 1) more…...

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The Market Correction Enters Its Final Week By Breaking Down Or Breaking Out?

If you’re not hedged already, there is probably no better time than the present to start considering how to go about hedging your portfolio against risk. We’ll show you why, using simple screen shots in just a moment, but for now let’s briefly discuss the week that was and why we think reducing risk is…...

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Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019 Forecast & Outlook

BofA Merrill Lynch 2019 Market Outlook: From Peak to Trough, the Market Unfriends Stocks and Bonds, Likes Volatility, and Swipes Right on Cash CATEGORIES Global Markets Merrill Lynch Print to PDFRSS Feed Showing its age, the long bull market cycle of excess stock and bond returns is expected to finally wind down next year, but…...

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Does the Trade Truce Produce a Change in Analysts’ Earnings Estimates?

After a really poor performance in October, the S&P 500 (SPX) rebounded in November. It may not have seemed like it rebounded given the mid-November retest of the October lows, but ultimately the benchmark index finished higher than where it began on November 1st. The S&P 500 closed November up 1.79% from the previous month…...

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Fed Minutes, Key Gauges on the Economy & G-20 Set Up The Final Week of November

In the week that was, we had a rare 2018 example of market inefficiency. For much of the year and at one point for 26 consecutive weeks, the S&P 500 (SPX) managed to close within its weekly expected move. For the trading week that ended November 23rd, the SPX weekly expected move was $47. Keep…...

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Headwinds Compressing S&P 500 Multiple: Probable Outcome?

Another roller coaster week in the markets has passed and with it dragging the major averages lower for the week. For the week, the Dow (DJIA) fell 2.2%, the S&P 500 (SPX) dropped 1.6%, while the Nasdaq (NDX) declined 2.2 percent. As depicted in the chart above, the S&P 500, along with its peer indices,…...

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S&P 500 Met With Headwinds and Tailwinds This Week: Which Way?

This past week was yet another turbulent week for the major averages, but they managed there best week in over a month and since peaking in September. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow (DJIA) gained 2.8% and 2.1% for the week, respectively. The Nasdaq (NDX), meanwhile, rose 0.7 percent.  The chart below shows the daily…...

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The S&P 500 Corporate Profit Tree Continues to Grow Above Expectations

Let’s get right to the heart of the matter and as we look forward to the coming week, which should be an eventful one as it includes midterm elections. First up to bat we’re going to take a look, rather quickly, at the latest auto sales. “But you guys haven’t said much in reporting weeks…...

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Uncertainty to Give Way: Lower Valuation Levels Rarely Last

Despite what has now been a near 10% S&P 500 (SPX) correction from it’s all-time high set in September, the fear gauge isn’t representing market inefficiency or investor panic. Maybe the word “yet” should be placed at the end of the previous sentence given the expected weekly move for the week ahead, maybe? We’ll get…...

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