Narrative vs. Flows, Liquidity-Volatility-Flows Feedback Loop, QE/QT and Liquidity Narrative vs. Flows By Marko Kolanovic, PhD and Bram Kaplan, CFA Since our last note, the market continued moving higher from heavily oversold levels and low investor positioning. Positioning has somewhat increased but still remains subdued (all HF beta: ~9th %ile, Volatility Targeting Beta: ~1st %ile,…...
We are off to a spectacular year in the markets with the S&P 500 (SPX) up roughly 3.5% since January 2nd… and that would be the bare naked truth if it weren’t for the fact that we began the year with a bear market that began late last year. The current snap back rally for…...
Posted on January 3, 2019 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT There’s a saying that market tops are a process and bottoms are an event. This is meant to imply that tops are formed over drawn out periods of time, often several months, while the market will find a final low in a quick v-shaped pattern. While…...
Languishing over the 2018 market won’t do investors any good, but it is important to reflect on what made for a rather unique investing/trading atmosphere. 2018 could easily be characterized as the year that volatility came back into the market place due to Quantitative Tightening and geopolitical/macro concerns. Prior to 2018, the “buy the dip…...
Market and Volatility Commentary December Post-Mortem, Signals from Fund Flows, Role of Systematic Flows and Reversion December Post-Mortem Over the past month, the confidence of equity investors virtually collapsed. The month of December proved us wrong in the view that the market would rise into year-end and in 2018 overall. Our call for a year-end…...
U.S. equity markets demonstrated another remarkable turnaround on Wednesday as investors returned from the New Year holiday. At its lows the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was negative by nearly 400 points, but rallied to finished in positive territory. Volatility, as gauged by the VIX, declined significantly as buyers stepped in to buy what was…...
Good weekend to everyone and with the final trading day of calendar year 2018, we can’t help but desire the calendar year to end with some semblance of positivity. Last week kicked-off a holiday shortened trading with much anxiety being created for investors on Christmas Eve and as the market meltdown continued. The S&P 500…...
J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Weekly Recap – Fri 12.21.18 Trading Desk Commentary; For Institutional Investors Talking Points for the Week • What happened this week – stocks sank pretty much everywhere on the planet this week as equity markets limp into 2019 bruised and battered. The big events included: 1) more…...
If you’re not hedged already, there is probably no better time than the present to start considering how to go about hedging your portfolio against risk. We’ll show you why, using simple screen shots in just a moment, but for now let’s briefly discuss the week that was and why we think reducing risk is…...
BofA Merrill Lynch 2019 Market Outlook: From Peak to Trough, the Market Unfriends Stocks and Bonds, Likes Volatility, and Swipes Right on Cash CATEGORIES Global Markets Merrill Lynch Print to PDFRSS Feed Showing its age, the long bull market cycle of excess stock and bond returns is expected to finally wind down next year, but…...
