@seth-golden
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kellykline started the topic Bloomberg: VIX Could Go Much Lower Just as Hedge Funds Bet on Its Futures in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 3 months, 2 weeks ago
Hi @seth-golden, I’m glad to read this article but wondering what your thoughts are. We’re almost at the end of the year, and many are saying that there should be a Santa rally. Wouldn’t that cause the vix to be pushed lower? We’ve been in backwardation for quite a…[Read more]
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Retiredmarine1214 posted an update 4 months ago
@seth-golden quick question. When rsi makes new lows n price makes new highs. That’s a bearish divergence right? If I even explained right. -
kellykline started the topic Books on Trading and Technical Analysis in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 months, 2 weeks ago
Hi @seth-golden and anyone, looking for book recommendations to become a better trader and chart reader. Any must reads and foundational reads? Also, what expectations should we have after reading those books? Thanks in advance!
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RonTurkey posted an update 8 months, 1 week ago
@seth-golden I notice you mostly trade s&p related vix products.. do you also trade any vol in nasdaq or Dow or gold or oil? Why or why not?
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No, I’ve only traded S&P related as it is the largest and based on functional market thesis without deliverable assets underlying. Oil, gold, both deliverable assets. I could never offer someone a box of volatility 😉 Makes a difference in the AUM value theory.
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RonTurkey posted an update 8 months, 1 week ago
@seth-golden a couple things. Subscription, Reuters, Barron’s, Business Insider, all of the above, or none of the above? I’ve had Motley Fool and WSJ in the past, and I thought they provided little value. On a separate topic, have you looked into Chinese tech? Seems like China in general has the most to gain in user and user growth. I see more…[Read more]
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I have a subscription to Reuters and Barron’s. Only Chinese tech/commerce I trade is BABA. Of course some of the bookkeeping is fraudulent which is why I only trade them here and there.
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Sunil Narayana posted an update 8 months, 2 weeks ago
@seth-golden, On the same subject, Do you think Short VXX is more riskier in the begining of the M1or. the tail end…the same on ZIV too…
For instance last Tuesdays market crash VXX up by 12.44% if the same event occured on a week earlier i wonder if VXX would have been up less than 12.44%..i am not sure..we cant go back in time:-(..but i felt…[Read more]
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It would depend on the current state of term structure. But in general your risk would be greater with initiating a position at the beginning of the futures contract as the ETP holds the vast majority of its AUM in the m1 during the onset of the contract month. So if a Feb 5 event occurred on day 1 of the AUM holding the m1s would be far worse…[Read more]
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Oh ok..Thank you…so the majority of ETP matters. I wondered the m1 doesnt move as close/high as Spot Vix when M1 is on its first day. With that i thought its less risky to short VXX on the start of m1. Thank you for correcting
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It’s more risky in terms of if an anomalistic event occurs, it would cause the greatest damage at the beginning of a monthly cycle, than later in the monthly futures cycle. Key term is anomalistic, as the probability is quite low.
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Oh ok.. Thank you for the wisdom….
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RonTurkey posted an update 10 months, 1 week ago
@seth-golden what tool or website do you use to track the earnings performance of companies in the S&P 500?
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Something tells me you don’t read the weekly research reports on earnings. I embed the Reuters link in each one http://lipperalpha.financial.thomsonreuters.com/2018/04/this-week-in-earnings-9/
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is there one that updates every day or does this one update once a week?
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S&P earnings are only updated weekly. I include in the weekly research report the breakdown as well as the corresponding table.
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kellykline replied to the topic Trade War in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 10 months, 2 weeks ago
@seth-golden totally agree with your points and am learning a bunch.
It’s a great day today after Pres. Xi announced plans to ‘open’ China. I frankly did not expect that, thought there would be more ‘tit’ for ‘tat’.
Could this be the start of the vix term structure going back into contango? M1 and M2 seem to be flattening. I hope earnings…[Read more]
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kellykline replied to the topic Trade War in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 10 months, 2 weeks ago
Thanks @seth-golden! Am I reading this wrong or is VXX not spiking as much as back in Feb?
<br />img url<br />Also, the VXST/VIX ratio is still above 1. Shouldn’t it fall below 1 historically?
The longer we’re in backwardation, the more VXX will continue to creep higher. Just very concerned – VXX seem to move up 50 cents every day due to…[Read more]
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kellykline replied to the topic Shiller P/E Over 30 in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 11 months ago
Thanks @seth-golden! That makes sense. Forward PE of 17 is about average and corp earnings are looking really good. Looks like there’s more left in this bull market.
Found this JP Morgan Guide to the Market Q1 2018: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/insights/guide-to-the-markets/viewer
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RonTurkey posted an update 11 months, 1 week ago
@seth-golden generally speaking, safe to short UVXY again? or are you looking for a higher level of contango or other indicators, especially with the revised changes to its guts? VVIX continues to stay elevated, relatively speaking. Seems like the “ALL CLEAR” has not been announced yet.. haha.
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Safer is a better word for shorting VOL and it will always be found defining that margin of safety through liquidity. With a full core holding I am continuing to look for scalps on VXX, but using UVXY for LOBs
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kellykline started the topic Christopher Cole of ArtemisCM – Long Vol Strategy in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 1 year ago
@seth-golden, I read the Artemiscm white paper on Reflexivity in the Shadows of Black Monday.
Seem pretty scary and prescient given the Feb 5th event. Chris suggests a vol regime change where being long volatility will significantly outperform short volatility in 2018 and beyond given its hedge against market turmoil, which apparently is only a…[Read more]
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volguru replied to the topic Discrepancies between VXX, TVIX & UVXY in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 1 year ago
@seth-golden Thats a helpful perspective. What i meant by broken is that dont expect them to trade like they should in times of distress. else, no reason why VXX was trading at a higher % gain then both TVIX/UVXY on Feb 6th if i remember correctly.
P.S. VXX shorts availability are back on Fidelity @2.5% cost to borrow
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RonTurkey posted a new activity comment 1 year ago
Were these sent today? I haven’t received any messages in the FinomGroup inbox. Just FYI. @seth-golden
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no you’re good, nothing to you just a general heads up for folks to check their messages on-site
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RonTurkey replied to the topic Fed 2:00pm in the forum Volatility Playground: Causation of the day! 1 year ago
Can you can provide a simple example? @seth-golden
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RonTurkey replied to the topic Fed 2:00pm in the forum Volatility Playground: Causation of the day! 1 year ago
@seth-golden can you explain or send link or article that explains how the LOB works?
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RonTurkey replied to the topic Short VXX and UVXY with protection against Black Swan in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 1 year ago
@seth-golden Seth, I noticed you tended to dissuade this trade with that example of capital size “at this stage of the bull cycle.” So, how are you weighting this conclusion to @ultrafeel? Imo, the time management is the issue. It’s not worth all the time spent to manage a 10k account shorting vol (unless you did a set it and forget it core…[Read more]
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kellykline replied to the topic Govt’ Shutdown in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 1 year ago
Excellent Opportunity, like how @seth-golden and @david-moadel puts it. I’m glad I have liquidity going into this, just need to be disciplined when layering my shorts. I expect it to spike, but I sometimes short it too early.
My plan:
1. watch finomgroup for advice and guidance from the pros
2. only commit 10% of funds a day to short vol
3.…[Read more] -
RonTurkey posted a new activity comment 1 year, 1 month ago
@seth-golden the alerts have been going into my junk mail… it’s changed now, but i kept trying to find the alerts on the website, but i now understand they were going via email.. Others may have the same problem.. just fyi!
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RonTurkey replied to the topic China Crackdown on Cryptos in the forum Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, & Altcoins 1 year, 1 month ago
if you want to look at bitcoin’s past, it can get crushed and hover for months. I was early enough to the game that bitcoin has to drop a hell of a lot more than this for me to start suffering losses – so I’m lucky in that aspect. Take it for what it’s worth, but my gut tells me the exchanges and ICO’s and Mining sites are trying to accomplish…[Read more]
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