It was a huge day of VIX trading on Monday with VIX options and futures volume soaring. The bottom line is that hedging programs were deployed on scale given the relative low level/inexpensive hedges that could be afforded and with the S&P 500 achieving the 2,800 level intraday. Most of the hedging activity and upside…
Welcome to Finom Group’s technical market recap! In this weekend’s release, we run through Friday’s market activity with great commentary and analysis from our very own Wayne Nelson. Please click on the link to review the video, which is 38 minutes in duration. If you are new to finomgroup.com, please feel free to subscribe…
It’s not often that such a market rally, now nearly 2 months in the making, can frighten investors, but this particular rally has served to uncover some strange happenstance when we look under the hood. With the FOMC/Fed on the sidelines and a China/U.S. trade deal seemingly on the horizon, the market fundamentals will eventually…...
Why rising rates and a flatter curve signal a potential downturn: The U.S. economy has seen a prolonged period of growth without a recession. As the business cycle has matured, the U.S. yield curve has flattened substantially. We expect further flattening and an increasing likelihood of curve inversion as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a…...
Educational video on the yield curve and its many implications. Discusses the yield curve as an indicator of strength or weakness of the economy. How the Federal Reserve’s activity affects the yield curve vs. how investors affect the yield curve i.e. supply/demand....
Welcome to this weekly edition of State of the Market. The major averages succumb to modest selling pressure today, even with headlines and media coverage surrounding U.S./China that support a deal forthcoming. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video, which is roughly 1 hour in duration. Additionally, Wayne Nelson delivers our daily,…
Despite it being a QT day of significance and without the benefits of U.S. Treasury issuance offsets, the major averages still rallied and after the FOMC minutes were released. The minutes proved innocuous by and large, inline with what most economists, strategists and analysts had previously assumed. The assumption was that there would be some…
There is at least one key component of the market rally that will likely come into play today, liquidity. Today marks yet another quantitative tightening (QT) day for the FOMC as it continues to reduce the size of its balance sheet. The calendar of QT days is depicted below. It’s a common and widely accepted…
Welcome to our technical market recap with Wayne Nelson. On a day where the major averages began the trading day in the red and rallied through much of the day, only to finish slightly higher, the crosscurrent of fundamentals and technicals are converging. We’re of the opinion that the late day sell down in the…
Market and Volatility Commentary V-Shaped Recovery, Low Positioning = More Upside, Commodity Sector Trades The V-shaped recovery and Positioning Global Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy Marko Kolanovic, PhD AC In early January we explained the flows behind the Q4 market collapse, arguing that market should recover its losses (here, here). After an initial short covering rally,…...
