Why rising rates and a flatter curve signal a potential downturn: The U.S. economy has seen a prolonged period of growth without a recession. As the business cycle has matured, the U.S. yield curve has flattened substantially. We expect further flattening and an increasing likelihood of curve inversion as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a strong leading indicator of an…
Last week’s Payrolls numbers were modestly disappointing but wage growth is showing real signs of upside pressure. In short,...
We discuss: how S&P 500 valuation is very reasonable as we enter 2024 and this is particularly notable when...
It’s difficult to be too optimistic with another 75bps rate hike (almost certainly) coming next week, and especially given...
There is nothing wrong with unbridled enthusiasm when it’s correlated to the appropriate level of rationale. That’s the premise...
Cross-Asset Strategy: While growth risks are elevated, our base case looks for an acceleration in global growth in the...
Seasonal trends are mostly about knowing where to look… and when! For this weekend Research note we are going...
There was a great deal of concern for the manner in which the equity markets closed the week, 2...
The market is testing investors and traders alike. That is what the market tends to do during corrections; it...
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