Why rising rates and a flatter curve signal a potential downturn: The U.S. economy has seen a prolonged period of growth without a recession. As the business cycle has matured, the U.S. yield curve has flattened substantially. We expect further flattening and an increasing likelihood of curve inversion as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a…...
Educational video on the yield curve and its many implications. Discusses the yield curve as an indicator of strength or weakness of the economy. How the Federal Reserve’s activity affects the yield curve vs. how investors affect the yield curve i.e. supply/demand....
Welcome to this weekly edition of State of the Market. The major averages succumb to modest selling pressure today, even with headlines and media coverage surrounding U.S./China that support a deal forthcoming. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video, which is roughly 1 hour in duration. Additionally, Wayne Nelson delivers our daily,…
Despite it being a QT day of significance and without the benefits of U.S. Treasury issuance offsets, the major averages still rallied and after the FOMC minutes were released. The minutes proved innocuous by and large, inline with what most economists, strategists and analysts had previously assumed. The assumption was that there would be some…
There is at least one key component of the market rally that will likely come into play today, liquidity. Today marks yet another quantitative tightening (QT) day for the FOMC as it continues to reduce the size of its balance sheet. The calendar of QT days is depicted below. It’s a common and widely accepted…
Welcome to our technical market recap with Wayne Nelson. On a day where the major averages began the trading day in the red and rallied through much of the day, only to finish slightly higher, the crosscurrent of fundamentals and technicals are converging. We’re of the opinion that the late day sell down in the…
Market and Volatility Commentary V-Shaped Recovery, Low Positioning = More Upside, Commodity Sector Trades The V-shaped recovery and Positioning Global Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy Marko Kolanovic, PhD AC In early January we explained the flows behind the Q4 market collapse, arguing that market should recover its losses (here, here). After an initial short covering rally,…...
When momentum develops, it can become a driving force greater than fundamentals and rational considerations. Such was the case for the market in Q4 2018 and with the S&P 500 (SPX) falling into a technical bear market and such has been the case in Q1 2019 with the S&P 500 rallying some 16%+ off the…...
The market’s reaction to the release of the December 2018 monthly retail sales was just a reasonable excuse to pullback modestly on Thursday. December retail sales proved disappointing and missed average analysts’ estimates for a modest rise in the MoM data. For the month of December, the Census Bureau reported a MoM decline of 1.2%,…
Welcome to Finom Group’s weekly State of the Market (SOTM) video. Within this week’s SOTM we dive into some of the more recent economic data releases with great detail and analysis. Please click to review the video. To direct the chronology of the video and streamline conversational points of analysis and interest, we offer the following…...
