This week’s focus is likely to be centered on CPI and the Fed. To us, that is yesterday’s news; while it’s important for the next week / year-end trading ranges, the final chapter to this bear market is all about the path of earnings estimates, which are far too high, in our view. Inflation data…...
Key takeaways • Consumers have proven resilient in 2022. While they are likely to have a tougher time next year, especially if the labor market deteriorates, they are starting 2023 in decent financial shape. Deposit balances are coming down, but slowly, and credit card usage does not currently look out of line with pre-pandemic levels. …
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The Federal Reserve has not yet begun easing, but “Easing” is a multi-dimensional event, and increasingly, the outlines of a new cycle (often associated with the beginning of a bull market) are coming into focus. It’s only in its infancy, still far from firing on all cylinders, and it could yet be aborted. Nonetheless, while…...
In The Illusion of Knowledge (September 2022), I railed against macro forecasting, which in our profession mostly concerns the next year or two. And in I Beg to Differ (July 2022), I discussed the questions I was asked most frequently at Oaktree’s June 21 conference in London: How bad will inflation get? How much will the Fed raise interest…...
I’ve gathered a few ideas from several of my memos this year – plus some recent musings and conversations – to form the subject of this memo: what really matters or should matter for investors. I’ll start by examining a number of things that I think don’t matter. What Doesn’t Matter: Short-Term Events In The Illusion…...
By Michael Cembalest: December 1, 2022 Non-Fungible Trainwreck. First, I’m pleased to offer readers of the Eye on the Market a holiday gift that I commissioned for you: a one-of-a-kind “APE Innovation ETF” non-fungible token. Just copy and paste the image below and your digital journey will begin. Maybe hang it in the digital living…
By: Doug Ramsey Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global Fund. When Jerome Powell took the reins of the Federal Reserve in early 2018, many commentators cheered the fact that he does…...
Absolute best investors I’ve encountered aren’t successful because they predicted the trend or the macro-outlook, but because they have a time-tested process that doesn’t rely on such predictions! ~Seth Marcus If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week and be…...
2023 Global Economic Outlook • With financial conditions tightening and the winter aggravating China’s COVID and Europe’s natural gas problems, the global expansion is projected to proceed at a sub-par 1.5%ar pace into 2023. • The global economy is not at imminent risk of sliding into recession, in our view, as 2022 adverse supply-side shocks…...
