Plunging Core Inflation and Slower Growth will Force the Fed’s Hand * The risk of recession persists, though our base case remains a soft landing. The surge in third quarter GDP growth was the reddest of herrings, and it will not be repeated. Activity was boosted by the lingering effects of rapid household income growth…...
No matter how many different data sets, seasonal patterns, election cycle studies we look at, they all point to the same bullish long-term outcome, and many point to short-term weakness. Weakness is a relative/subjective term folks; be aware! With little movement in the indices year-to-date, we can safely say at least two things, and please…...
Sentiment: Plenty of believers = tactical risk in early 2024 Sentiment indicators such as Farrell Sentiment, asset manager S&P 500 (SPX) E-mini net futures position and the 25-day put/call have risen, entering 2024 near complacent levels. Although not yet euphoric, individual and institutional investor sentiment suggests that many investors have embraced the 34% rally from…...
Three big things you need to know: First, across the globe most of our analysts are optimistic on performance in the year ahead, with favorable views on the impact of potentially lower interest rates and, to a lesser degree, favorable views on valuations. Second, in the US, the only region where we do formal strategy…...
Some of the 21st century’s biggest breakthroughs are happening in health care, transforming the way we diagnose, treat and prevent grave diseases. From gene sequencing and proteomics to the prospect of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled drug discoveries, what seemed like science fiction just a few years ago is increasingly an everyday reality. These advancements are prompting…...
Welcome back investors and traders! This past week proved a pretty strong bounce-back week for markets after the prior week’s downturn was somewhat to-be-expected. What happens in the week ahead and in the month of January will either find the bull parade marching higher or the bears slowly awaking from a year-long slumber. Finom Group…...
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As we entered 2024, investors have been told that just because the calendar changes that doesn’t mean the market trend changes. It turns out, once again, that market sentiment and even price action can and do change as the calendar year changes. It’s not an “all the time” expression, but it does happen quite often.…...
by Michael Cembalest...
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