“Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks.” ~Jesse Livermore If you would like to review the weekly…...
With financial conditions tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indices looks unattractive at current prices. However, strong nominal GDP growth should continue to provide plenty of good investment opportunities at the stock level for active managers. Uncertainty breeds dispersion. The economic and political environment has been permanently altered from its…...
We’re back! It has been a couple of weeks since our last weekly Research Report, but we hope some time away from study and due diligence did not find investors worse for wear, as the market has achieved new highs. Those new highs have been met with yet another modest period of consolidation, thus far.…...
Market participants can access data points; access is NOT the struggle. The struggle is in the SEQUENCING of data points Without the appropriate sequencing, the data loses its utility for an investor/trader, rendering it NOISE in a sea of data points. ~Golden Nuggets To review the weekly State of the Market video, please click the…...
The US equity market continues to ride the wave of liquidity and seasonal FOMO. As we approach our bull case of 4800, the risk/reward deteriorates, particularly with leverage high. The consumer looks ready for a strong and early holiday shopping season—supporting the near-term positive trend. Riding the wave. Equity markets continue to ride the wave…...
With just 2 months remaining in the 2021 trading year, investors are gearing up for the typical seasonal tailwinds, but also recognizing that markets are trading at all-time highs heading into a “tapering… storm?” That’s a question I’ll leave open-ended for investors and traders alike, as each will be approaching the end of the year…...
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“The speculator fights his own good sense, struggles against his own will … and is at odds with his own decisions … There are many occasions in which every speculator seems to have two bodies so that astonished observers see a human being fighting himself.” ~Joseph de la Vega Please click on the provided link…...
Growth is slowing for both the economy and earnings and is unlikely to bottom until 1H2022. Meanwhile, earnings revisions breadth has deteriorated sharply over the past month, a leading indicator for NTM EPS. Most of this deterioration has been due to costs and supply but demand looks vulnerable. Odds are increasing that growth will continue…...
Welcome back traders and investors. New highs, new highs and not quite new highs. What am I referring to? Well, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 (SPX) both made new all-time highs this week while the Nasdaq (COMPQ) failed to achieve this feat of strength. Close, but close is not going to…...
