Mid-Cycle Brings More Risk than Reward We’re entering mid-cycle faster than normal. Rate of change on growth & policy has peaked, and valuation is falling. Taxes, tapering & transitions temper index returns. Look for alpha in relative value, themes, and reasonably priced growth and cyclicals as mid-cycle transition runs its course. Mid-cycle is here, and…...
“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” ~George Soros “Sometimes buying early on the way down looks like being wrong, but it isn’t.” ~Seth Klarman Markets crash from oversold, not overbought!We’re certainly oversold here, so remember our 5-percent maxim/rule:…...
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The Mid-Cycle Transition Over the past month, we’ve taken a different path than most equity strategists. Rather than getting excited about the reopening, we are getting more concerned about (1) execution risk and (2) what’s already priced in.First, on the execution front, there’s growing evidence that supply remains a problem for many companies, just as…...
After 3 full trading weeks, and an additional 3 trading days this past week, the S&P 500 (SPX) managed to add more gains to the already double-digit returns in 2021. The S&P 500 has now achieved 27 new, record highs in 2021, with its sights potentially on more new highs in the coming weeks and…...
Some 90% of RIAs can’t analyze markets with any proficiency! Some 90% of analysts can’t advise clients in a manner that achieves even market performance! In other words: “Its easier to talk markets than it is to invest/trade markets. This is especially true when it’s your own capital. Remember this, next time you hear a…...
Global Macro spotlight by Gary Schlossberg, Global strate We believe investors looking beyond this year’s expected economic boom can expect a shift to more moderate, sustainable growth plus steadier inflation and interest rates during the latter part of 2022. Slowing economic growth has been typical during the second full year of an economic growth cycle…...
Nailed it! That must be what Fundstrat strategist Tom Lee is thinking at the end of the trading week and the end of April Lee had previously called for the S&P 500 (SPX) to achieve 4,200 by the end of April, and that is exactly what transpired in the benchmark index this past week. “So,…...
US Equity Strategy Market Update, Impact of Higher Corporate Tax and Infrastructure Spending Plan For the last twelve months, we have been aggressively pushing the upside case for equities (Market Update Mar’20). Going into this year, we argued for a continued melt-up with S&P 500 reaching 4,000 in 1Q and the majority of the upside…...
At the end of the previous trading week, the S&P 500 (SPX) was enjoying its fourth-straight up week (its longest run since last August), its biggest 16-day return (+7.6%) since November, and its 12th-straight day of setting either a record close or intraday high: The strength of the market was as undeniable as the overheated…...
