The J.P. Morgan View Booming markets, disturbing protests and a collapsing dollar Cross-asset strategy: Risky markets are booming and the dollar collapsing as the global economy bottoms, high-frequency data releases beat expectations and fiscal/monetary policy ease further. Some are overshooting if the medium-term recovery proves as anemic as the post-GFC years, but that malaise will…...
This weekend is an off-reporting weekend, but we encourage our members to maintain a fluid understanding of the week-to-week market actions. With that being said we offer some light readings and charts to consider as we head into the coming trading week. It’s been a remarkable year in many ways, some more somber than others…...
During the holiday shortened trading week, the excitement was already anticipated and proclaimed by the bulls with strong market breadth in the prior week. As such, when the markets opened for trading on Tuesday morning they took to the upside and didn’t look back. The S&P 500 (SPX) leaped over its 200-DMA on Tuesday and…...
Another choppy, headline-driven trading week. Fortunately the choppiness resolved itself to the upside and further erased the previous week’s losses. In the prior week, the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 2.26%, threatening to end the bullish relief rally that is now one of the greatest bear market relief rallies in history. The S&P 500 finished up…...
After a 1-point move in the S&P 500 (SPX) Monday, things got a bit more interesting through the remainder of the trading week! The index is down 11.36% YTD and is 15.43% below its record close. For the week that was, the S&P 500 finished lower by 2.26%, while managing to stave off 3 consecutive…...
US Equity Strategy: Equity Risk Premium, Market Multiple, Zero Rates, Liquidity Boom, Long Duration, Sustainable Income. The sharp ~30% recovery in S&P 500 from the Mar 23 trough, even as earnings expectations and macro outlook were steadily being revised lower by the street, has come as a surprise to many. After the market crossed our…...
IN THIS ISSUE • Macro Strategy—Alongside a sharp contraction in economic activity, the equity market has already seen a rally from the March bottom, has already recovered close to half of the total peak-to-trough decline. The drivers of the current crisis have been exceptional, but similarities with previous episodes suggest that investors should continue to…...
Over the last 2-3 weeks, Finom Group has outlined our market outlook during the bear market saga, by forecasting a period of consolidation. Consolidation is a phase within a phase of the bear market known as the bottoming process. Don’t lose site of the efficiency for which bear markets unfold, simply because it seems as…...
Market and Volatility Commentary COVID-19 forecasts – providing updates and modeling details Given the unprecedented heath crisis and resulting economic shock, our research focused on understanding the timeline of the pandemic. In a series of papers (see here, here, here, here, here, and here) we provided a set of forecasts about the pandemic that were…...
The world is an imperfect place! Remember that as an investor, engaged in an imperfect marketplace with imperfect systems, theories and analysis. Given this fact, and I think we can all agree it is a fact, one shouldn’t expect perfection in their market participation. There will be both wins and losses, trials and tribulations, good…...
