US Equity Strategy Election Implications for Equities, Democrat AgendaWinners and Losers With US election only a few months away, one scenario that has been of growing interest among investors is a potential Democratic sweep setting the stage for a shift in the legislative agenda. The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will…...
Volatility Review Monetizing the convexity risk premium, US structuredproduct dynamics, Positioning update Implied convexity continues to exhibit very high levels of stress and lags the recovery in other risk premia. We recommend monetizing this rich risk premium by selling Jun’21 variance swaps vs. buying 0.75x the vega notional in Jun’21 vol swaps on the S&P…...
2020 Mid-Year Outlook for Economies and Markets as the World Re-opens Summary and Replay of 2020 Mid-Year Outlook Virtual Meeting Global growth is set to rebound in 3Q on the easing of lockdown restrictions, emerging signs of economic recovery, and improving consumer sentiment, but investors should be more selective over the next six months as…...
Has the COVID-19 reemerging positive case ratio finally caught up to what many have described as a market that is overvalued, overheated and disconnected with “reality”? Whosever’s reality that might be? There are always doubts and conjectures when a market proves to consolidate, especially when the headlines are negative and flowing on a minute-by-minute basis.…...
After retreating some 4.7% in the previous week, the S&P 500 (SPX) took back some of the consolidation. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.86%, but the week didn’t seem as strong as it was given the latter trading days of the week and with Friday’s drop of just over a half percent. In…...
by Paul Christopher, CFA, Head of Global Market Strategy and Gary Schlossberg, Market Strategist Key takeaways We expect that the presidential and Senate races will be closely contested and decided, by voter reaction to the president’s handling of nationwide protests in May and June, and by how well the U.S. economy’s reopening is managed. Based…...
Just one week ago, the S&P 500 finished higher for the week by 4.9%, which seems a lifetime ago and after a tremendous decline on Thursday of this past trading week. On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell (SPX) almost 6% and found a 3rd straight day of selling pressure. This proved the first 3-day losing…...
Burgeoning ‘green shoots’ bring hope for an economic recovery The last time I used the term “green shoots” was the late spring and summer of 2009. Like everybody else, I was looking for signs of economic life after the global financial crisis and searching for indications that the US and other developed countries were rising…...
The J.P. Morgan View Booming markets, disturbing protests and a collapsing dollar Cross-asset strategy: Risky markets are booming and the dollar collapsing as the global economy bottoms, high-frequency data releases beat expectations and fiscal/monetary policy ease further. Some are overshooting if the medium-term recovery proves as anemic as the post-GFC years, but that malaise will…...
This weekend is an off-reporting weekend, but we encourage our members to maintain a fluid understanding of the week-to-week market actions. With that being said we offer some light readings and charts to consider as we head into the coming trading week. It’s been a remarkable year in many ways, some more somber than others…...
