J.P. Morgan Quant Team: January 2020 Is Not Like 2018

Flows & Liquidity: Are there similarities to January 2018?. Fri Jan 10 2020 A wide range of institutional investors appears to have raised their equity exposures markedly towards year end. This means 2019 is looking even stronger in terms of the equity flows that took place last year. But the comparison between 2020 and 2019…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Are Investors Living On the Edge Right Now?

Let’s get this party started folks! If last week the market proved one thing it is this: Buying begets buying in the same way that selling begets selling. With many, if not most, market traders, investors, strategists and analysts all looking for a near-term market top and subsequent pullback; defiance is all they got from…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

J.P. Morgan 2020 Outlook

Eye on the Market Outlook 2020J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT Ghosts of Christmas Past. After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear. We don’t expect a global or US recession, and anticipate a modest growth and profits rebound…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Iran/U.S. Conflict: Just What the Bull Needs For A Rest?

The first couple of trading days of the New Year proved a mixed bag as stocks roared higher on January 2nd and tumbled on January 3rd, after geopolitical tensions escalated between the U.S. and Iran. For the week, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell .16% and the Nasdaq (NDX) rose by the exact same amount. The…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

How Strategists & Analysts Assess 2020 Probabilities

This article first appeared in Financial Times: Jennifer Ablan, Colby Smith, Richard Henderson in New York and Joe Rennison in London DECEMBER 31 2019 The U.S. equity and bond rally that everyone hates will continue in 2020. That is the verdict from some of the biggest strategists and investors on Wall Street. These market-watchers also…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Onward and Upward in 2020?

Just 2 more trading days remain in 2019 and with that we are looking forward to the longest expansion cycle in U.S. history continuing… and to be accompanied by the continuation of the bull market. Before we look at what lay ahead we revisit the past, specifically December 17, 2018. In our final Research Report…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

VIX Futures as a Market Timing Indicator

Athanasios P. Fassas 1 and Nikolas Hourvouliades 2,* 1. Department of Accounting and Finance, University of Thessaly, Larissa 41110, Greece 2. Department of Business Studies, American College of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 55535, Greece Received: 10 June 2019; Accepted: 28 June 2019; Published: 1 July 2019 Introduction A fundamental principle of finance is the positive expected return-risk…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Merrill Lynch Capital Market Outlook: December 2019

IN THIS ISSUE Macro Strategy—A fundamental change in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) approach to achieving its inflation target means monetary policy is shifting from a headwind to a tailwind in 2020. The pattern of the U.S. business expansion over the past 10 years shares many similarities to the previous longest expansion in the 1990s. Like…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Geopolitical Risks Abate At Year-End: Sideways, Higher or Lower From Here?

The trading week that was ended in a manner that many may have not anticipated. As we read this week’s Research Report, we can’t help but to recall the setup for the trading week that was found with some anxiety surrounding the December 15 tariffs. Investors had a choice to make at the beginning of…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Marko Kolanovic/J.P. Morgan 2020 Outlook

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Our view is that the market turmoil and economic slowdown over the past 18 months is not marking the end of the business cycle, but rather represents a reset similar to crises that occurred every 3 years after 2008 (2011/2012, 2015/2016, and 2018/2019). In 2020, the global economy is expected to grow at…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here