2018 could easily be characterized as the year that volatility came back into the market place due to Quantitative Tightening and geopolitical/macro concerns. Asset prices reached record levels in 2017 and through much of 2018, but as the Fed ratcheted higher its rate hikes (4 rate hikes in FY18) the market became increasingly fearful that…
At its apex yesterday, the Dow (DJIA) was up some 350+ points. All major averages were up greater than 1% going into the 2:00 p.m. EST FOMC rate hike announcement. By and large, market participants were expecting/anticipating a dovish Fed rate hike. By and large, that’s what they got. The problem then, as the major…
Here we are at the end of the trading week and futures are bright red, as Chinese economic data proves less than desirable. China on Friday reported industrial output and retail sales growth for the month of November that missed expectations, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Industrial output in November grew 5.4%…
https://zoom.us/recording/play/uLKp7zYwIfSYc33D1VLDzLwakfwsdbn73SZTEz-qBjqGtSeUR4UGzADv5ZYFgDpp?continueMode=true Outline Market Headwinds: (23 minutes) Apple (AAPL) share price Crude oil price/demand/supply Trade Truce i.e. U.S./China: Corporate uncertainty and investor uncertainty (14 minutes in) FOMC rate hike path, turned dovish, data dependency brought back (16 minutes in) New Home sales, housing commentary (21 minutes in) FedWatch Tool: rate hike probability 2. Government shutdown? (24…
It’s not often that the market allows you to hedge before a significant daily move, but that’s exactly what happened on Monday with the market opening flat to higher and before reversing course. In Finom Group’s weekly research report, we mentioned our desire to hedge against a probable move lower for the current reason, mainly…
The S&P 500 (SPX) weekly expected move was $72/points last week, but it blew past that once again and for the 5th time in the last 10 weeks. The market is proving less efficient here in the 4th quarter than in any of the previous quarters of the calendar year. What does this mean? In…
Thursday’s market activity was more troubling than what the daily chart assumes and when we broaden it out for the full year. While the October daily closing low proved, once again, to provide a floor for the S&P 500, these chart patterns tend to resolve unfavorably over the long run. What we’ve seen since the…
After some alarming headlines on the political front forced U.S. equity markets sharply lower for much of the trading day on Thursday, a late afternoon rally found the major averages slightly lower on the day. Ahead of the G-20 Summit, President Trump discussed with reporters the possibility of easing trade tensions with China. Trump had…
Markets rallied hard on Wednesday and in unison with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that the FOMC was just below the “neutral rate”. In addition to this statement of great consequence, Powell also indicated that the Fed was looking more closely and willing to align with the economic data. Both of these statements and/or…
I had a conversation with a client in the late evenings recently. Yes, in the late evening and as the selling pressure in the markets persisted last week. The conversation centered on the client’s e-mini Futures positions and the general sentiment for the market going forward. He was a bit confused as to the correlations…
