In January, the “inventor” of the yield-curve indicator—Campbell Harvey of Duke University—suggested that the inversion of the 10Y/3M spread was “flashing a false signal,” and a U.S. recession would be avoided. But as the inversion deepened, Harvey abandoned that view, moving squarely into the recession camp. We respect his flexibility. Today, we have another economist casting doubt on her own…
The Leuthold Group: Putting The “Sahm Rule” To The Test
A financial market resource for the every-day investor and trader.
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48 Record Highs For S&P 500: What’s Your Game Plan?
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Welcome back to Finom Group’s weekly Research Report, as we kick-off our 3-week reporting cycle. Two weeks ago, during...
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Morgan Stanley: Weekly Warm-up: Earnings Revisions Stabilize As Macro Data Disappoints
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Investors’ belief in a 2H EPS recovery is growing amid a stronger than expected reporting season. Meanwhile, the recent...
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Weekly State of the Market: Oversold Conditions Developing With Sentiment Plunging
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
In 1987 shortly after Black Monday Peter Lynch was interviewed about the minimal hedging incorporated within the Magellan Fund:...
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Morgan Stanley: Great Expectations on Earnings and Inflation
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Our discussions with clients are narrowing to two primary topics: Earnings and Inflation. On the former, we hear many...
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How Strategists & Analysts Assess 2020 Probabilities
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
This article first appeared in Financial Times: Jennifer Ablan, Colby Smith, Richard Henderson in New York and Joe Rennison...
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Weighing the impacts of a potential watershed election
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
by Paul Christopher, CFA, Head of Global Market Strategy and Gary Schlossberg, Market Strategist Key takeaways We expect that...
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Weekly State of the Market: Market Malaise Manifests
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
“An investor’s job is not to avoid the pain but to endure it.” If you would like to...
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2022: Year In Review
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
by Barry Napp Our 2022 outlook note was titled Inflation Politics & Policy and began with a section titled “liquidity...
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