Research Report Excerpt #1 That’s right. This past trading week was strong, but it wasn’t “uber” strong, as the kids say! In late May, the S&P 500 had a weekly gain of greater than 6%, as outlined below: From May 20th to May 27th, the market rallied greater than 6%. One step forward, but unfortunately that…
So this just happened: The S&P 500 gained 3.9% from the day of the Fed hike through the following trading day. That is officially the best rally after a Fed hike going back to 1970 (Bloomberg data). Not only that, the S&P 500 kept going on Friday, finishing the week up 4.26 percent. The benchmark…...
“Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. If you didn’t get the deferred-gratification gene, you’ve got to work very hard to overcome that.” ~Charlie Munger Side Note on Fed: I can’t see FOMC members appreciating the market’s reaction to their message, outlook and July rate hike.…...
Key talking points Aggregate retail inventories have been steadily improving as demand for goods moderates and supply chain bottlenecks ease. The retail inventory to sales ratio has ticked up from the Oct 2021 trough, yet it is still below the 2011-2019 average. That said, the story varies across sectors. At one extreme, general merchandise stores…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Over my career, I have experienced 7 market shocks, including the bursting of the technology bubble, the global financial crisis, and now COVID-19. I mention these events only to highlight the fact that market disruptions are a fact of life. It’s just a matter of time before the train goes off…
It’s difficult to be too optimistic with another 75bps rate hike (almost certainly) coming next week, and especially given how the week ended for the markets. However, the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMPQ) both finished above their respective 50-DMAs for the first time in 3 months, to complete the week. This is a positive…...
“Bear market rallies are labeled because things get so badly discounted they foster the idea that it has to get better from here. The bear market rally is validated with lower lows when metrics don’t deliver on the optimism of “from here”. Bottom line: “from here” demands work!” ~Seth Golden If you wish to watch…...
While Defensives are the clear leader, most investors aren’t there, leaving more upside potential as earnings cuts begin. Counter-trend rally may continue, but make no mistake, we don’t believe this bear market is over, even if we avoid a recession – the odds of which are increasing. Defensive leadership reigns supreme but few want to…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Early July started well once again, but now the market has hit the typical consolidation portion of July, where price action proves less favorable or mixed. In the final 2 weeks of July trading we’ll find out just how much repeating or rhyming the market expresses. Research Report Excerpt #2 It’s…
A big WELCOME BACK to all of our Finom Group members, as we kick-off another monthly cycle of Research Reports and macro-market analysis. This past week found the major averages consolidating gains from the previous week, again. From large-caps to small-caps, and everything in between, stocks hit the skids once again, failing to find follow…...
