Research Report Excerpt #1 Q2-Q3 are the weakest 2 quarters of the 4-year cycle (shown above), averaging losses of -1.2% for DJIA and -1.5% for the S&P 500 since 1949, and -5.0% for the NASDAQ since 1971. Again, these are the stats for the Q2-Q3 period of the 4-year presidential cycle, not the whole year.…
Research Report Excerpt #1 Taking a step back for a moment, recognizing the landscape for 2022 doesn’t inspire a great deal of positive market sentiment, we are better able to see the forest for the trees. Recall that in 2020, with a pandemic-influenced, self-induced economic shutdown, the S&P 500 rose some 18 percent. In 2021, the…
Research Report Excerpt #1 This is not a sell-everything and run for cover moment. It’s mechanical, and if history is any guide, a longer-term opportunity for the bulls that I offered this past week: At this time, I’d invite investors/traders to go back and review where the longer-term equity market trend stands. Watching the day-to-day…
Single-family house prices have been rising at record rates, raising the question of whether they have become disconnected with fundamentals. In October 2021, U.S. home price appreciation reached an annualized pace of 20% almost double the rate in 2012 when housing was rebounding off its lows of the global financial crisis (GFC). Yet, in our…
Research Report Excerpt #1 “How does Jim Cramer of CNBC do so well then?” The short answer to the question above is: He doesn’t! As the tracked data analyzes, for every $1 invested in the Jim Cramer Action Alerts Plus recommended investment, an investor would have earned half of what they would have earned if…
Research Report Excerpt #1 A perfect depiction of setup years is recognizable in the table below, which we’ve offered in past reporting: At its “closing” lows on March 14th, the S&P 500 (SPX) was down 12.4% before the renewed strength. It’s been the 4th worst start to a year since 1928. As the table above clearly outlines, the…
Research Report Excerpt #1 It may prove counterintuitive to many market participants, but the higher the VIX moves, the better the long-term returns. Having said that, we may have to withstand more volatility as we trek through weekly headlines and a CPI delivery this coming week. With an average intraday trading range of 2 percentage…
In the short-run, it’s difficult to see an easy way out of the current geopolitical nightmare. The hopelessness of the day is often a precursor to the promise and eventual brighter, and better future. Most people get up in the morning looking to better themselves, better their future (Nick Maggiulli). That’s how society propels itself…
Research Report Excerpt #1 Lastly, we hear a lot of chatter surrounding China and the potential for the CCP to model what Russia is attempting to do with its war on Ukraine. We are not of the viewpoint that China will look to reacquire the independent Taiwan as Ukraine is attempting to do with Ukraine.…
Research Report Excerpt #1 Heading into 2022, we understood that the historic potential S&P 500 returns surrounding midterm cycles and Year 2 of Presidential cycles usually deliver higher volatility and lesser returns. There were no guarantees that history would repeat, but the seasonal cycles suggested that a strongly profitable 2021 should reinforce year-end rebalancing ahead…
