IN THIS ISSUE Macro Strategy—A fundamental change in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) approach to achieving its inflation target means monetary policy is shifting from a headwind to a tailwind in 2020. The pattern of the U.S. business expansion over the past 10 years shares many similarities to the previous longest expansion in the 1990s. Like…...
Before we get started with today’s daily market dispatch, I wanted to remind our readers about something we discussed in the Finom Group Trading Room on Tuesday. The following chart from Tom McClellan identifies the S&P 500 this year against the S&P 500 in 1995. The two are taking a very similar path. Why are…
What happens when the threat from the ongoing trade war abates? Naturally, the melt-up ensues. This is not to discount the the surge in the S&P 500 since October, but rather to highlight the seasonal trends that suggest the last couple of weeks in December are usually found with the major averages advancing. The Dow…
The trading week that was ended in a manner that many may have not anticipated. As we read this week’s Research Report, we can’t help but to recall the setup for the trading week that was found with some anxiety surrounding the December 15 tariffs. Investors had a choice to make at the beginning of…
The trading week that was ended in a manner that many may have not anticipated. As we read this week’s Research Report, we can’t help but to recall the setup for the trading week that was found with some anxiety surrounding the December 15 tariffs. Investors had a choice to make at the beginning of…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. This week we discuss the culmination and conclusion of the anticipation surrounding the December 15 tariff deadline and announced U.S./China, phase-1 trade deal. The removal of this market headwind sets the stage for a potential melt-up into…...
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Our view is that the market turmoil and economic slowdown over the past 18 months is not marking the end of the business cycle, but rather represents a reset similar to crises that occurred every 3 years after 2008 (2011/2012, 2015/2016, and 2018/2019). In 2020, the global economy is expected to grow at…...
U.S. options skew on the S&P 500 has been rising recently, and a recent close of 136.6 is actually higher than at any point during last December’s stock meltdown. A refresher on what skew measures: Imagine a $100 stock that has put and call options that expire in 1 year with strike prices of $50 (for…
Markets got off to a rough start in the pre-market trading hours on Tuesday and after a down day Monday. But then headlines surfaced that pointed to delaying the December 15th tariffs. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators were said to be laying the groundwork for a delay of tariffs set to kick in on Dec.…
U.S. equity markets are in distribution and/or de-risk mode ahead of the December 15th tariff deadline. While the financial news media outlets march out various opinions and forward-looking analysis for the markets and economy given this critical trade issue, investors have taken to de-risking their respective portfolios… just in case. On Monday, investors began adding…
