While there are plenty of events and fundamental data points worth considering, we find many remain fixated on the Fed’s next move and S&P 500 price. These factors appear to be dictating narratives and positioning. On that score, last week brought further risks to the consensus 4Q rally view. Fed is unlikely to come to the rescue proactively…With the Fed…
If we know that bad times are temporary and progress is undefeated, why is it so hard to stay...
It’s difficult to be too optimistic with another 75bps rate hike (almost certainly) coming next week, and especially given...
Mid-Cycle Brings More Risk than Reward We’re entering mid-cycle faster than normal. Rate of change on growth & policy...
Midterm election years are difficult trading years, but reliably strong investing years, as they setup the compounding effect. More...
Bears from 2009-2021: “A crash is coming!” Bears in 2022: “I told you so!” ~Douglas Boneparth NOBODY...
In The Illusion of Knowledge (September 2022), I railed against macro forecasting, which in our profession mostly concerns the next year...
What is next for markets? Investors should position forrising odds of Trump re-election In March, we were the first...
Macro Strategy—Inflation Dimming Economic Outlook: On multiple levels, including strong labor demand, decades-low household leverage, lack of excesses on...
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