For those who have never experienced a bear market before, welcome to the worst of times! Know that for every bear market there is only the probability of a positive outcome, the inevitable resumption of a bull market. This is an elaborate way of exploring the idea that “it always gets better”. From time-to-time, conditions…
Research Report Excerpt #1 Nonetheless, some variables provide greater force and as such are characterized as force factors. I’m of the opinion, the force factor of the day is monetary policy, the Fed (FOMC). The tweet stream above from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard Friday identifies his commentary shortly after the release of the November Nonfarm Payroll report. James Bullard…
Research Report Excerpt #1 Given that in the lead up to “Volmageddon” in 2018 we got up to 9 days of VIX/SPX rising together, most investors who remember this automatically assign a like-outcome, even though there were a great many more issues that combined to produce Volmageddon. Additionally, while the recent positive relationship does raise cautionary flags,…
Research Report Excerpt #1 Since 1928, a great many things have changed in our lives, in the economy, and around the world. There have been many economic shocks, World Wars, epidemics, advances in technology, and the list goes on and on. The point here is: No matter what you may think can or will trip…
The market was hunting for a reason to alleviate the overheated and overextended conditions. Recall just how overheated the market was coming into the week, as depicted by the distance the S&P 500 had traveled beyond the 50-DMA, and with a 14-day RSI of 76 and 5-day RSI above 93. If you want to believe…
Research Report Excerpt #1 Putting some more context to this past Friday’s price action, with a minor loss in the S&P 500, this was the more probable and even predicted price action based on the overbought and/or overheated conditions Seth had been analyzing during the course of the trading week. On Thursday, the S&P 500…
Research Report Excerpt #1 Over the last twenty-one years, the full month of October has been a solid month for the market. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have all recorded gains ranging from 0.6% by Russell 2000 to 1.9% by NASDAQ. But these gains have come with volatile trading, most notably…
Research Report Excerpt #1 Before we get to that though, recall what Finom Group offered in its most recent weekly State o the Market, and regarding Call and Put Open Interest strikes. First time in many, many months that we are vulnerable to a delta-hedge selloff, with: 1) heavy put open interest strikes on SPY below market 2)…
Research Report Excerpt #1 Are you trying to make quick returns and trading yourself out of the market, quickly… Or are you refining your long-term process for steady repeatable annual profits? Are you utilizing time/duration as your key asset for long-term success? All good questions, that many have not been focused on since the March 2020…
Research Report Excerpt #1 What will definitively prove consequential is how an investor reacts or doesn’t react to the seasonal weakness. Does one hunker down, reduce exposure, hedge, pray & hope… or do they continue to lean into the longer-term probabilities and execute their game plan? Historically speaking, and based on my own experience, only…
