Happy weekend, Finom Group investors and traders!
We invite you to review the following third party research from Rocky White at Schaeffers, Tom Lee at Fundstrat, Frank Cappelleri at CappThesis, The Team at Ned Davis Research, and Jen Nash at Advisor Perspectives.
We will be back on schedule with our full proprietary research report next Sunday. (2 weeks on, 1 week off)
Within our annual Outlook reports (2026 Outlook), we often remind investors/traders of the sins from trend-following strategies or technically-driven investing/trading strategies. The 2026 Outlook report was no different, as we prepared Finom…...
Having fun yet? 2026 has displayed the typical Midterm-election year characteristics with heightened volatility and at least a market price correction. Even so, we’d like to take the opportunity to remind…...
Happy weekend, Finom Group investors and traders!
We invite you to review the following third party research from Merrill Lynch, Leuthold Group, CappThesis, and Ned Davis Research
We will be back on schedule with our full proprietary research report next Sunday. (2 weeks on, 1 week off)
Quick note from Seth Golden, Chief Equity Market Strategist at Finom Group: Unfortunately, my X account was hacked as of this past Friday and we have notified X Support of the matter in order to remedy the situation. Until further notice, please do not engage the account and if time permits kindly contact support with a complaint under "imposter" account. Thank you for your time and indeed, we'll see you back here next week with our proprietary macro-market Research Report. With the markets rebounding strongly over the past 8 days and nearly back to breakeven year-to-date, there's no better time to catch up with our most recent data and analytics, by reviewing last weekend's proprietary report linked here.
Let us keep it short and sweet on this holiday weekend, as we wish you a joyous holiday season! 🐣 On this Good Friday and Easter Weekend, let’s see if we can…...
Welcome to a special Intra-Week 3rd-Party Research Update!
Good Thursday to our investors and traders. While our proprietary reports typically drop on Sundays, the current geopolitical friction warrants an immediate 50,000-foot overview. As markets navigate the exogenous shocks stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, we insist on providing a high-level look at external insights to help frame the ongoing, and to be expected, midterm year volatility.
Today’s update features perspectives from Ed Clissold and Thanh Nguyen at Ned Davis Research, strategic analysis from RBA (Richard Bernstein Advisors), Pantheon Macroeconomics, Luke Kawa & David Crowther at Sherwood News, and a concise look at P/E multiple contraction from Matt Cerminaro at The Compound.
We’ll be back this Sunday, per usual, with our full Macro-Market Research Report and proprietary FINOM GROUP analytics! 📊 😉
How doth thee hate Midterm-election years, let us count the ways. All kidding aside, many are finding history rhyming in the 2026 Midterm-election year. Another Midterm-election year with another exogenous event; wouldn’t…...
Current geopolitical tensions add support to our high-conviction theme of aerospace and defense. But it is time to reframe and widen the lens when it comes to investing in defense. Modern defense is no longer just missiles, tanks and large defense contractors. Rather, it is an entire industrial ecosystem—ranging from rare earth minerals to semiconductor fabs to satellites and undersea cables to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital infrastructure.
CAPPTHESIS Key Points The S&P 500 ended last week with a four-day losing streak. It is now also down three straight weeks… 5/6 and 7/9 weeks, too. This, of course, has pushed…...
It’s officially a market pullback, and the first one since last November’s -5% pullback. As we have been repeating for several weeks and with an outlook for a double-digit pullback in 1H…...
The U.S./Iran/Iraq war is the exogenous event that typically litters Midterm-election years. Something seems to always plague this part of the 4-Year Presidential cycle, but what we have long since understood should…...
Houston, We Have An…Opportunity! In the waking hours of February 28th, the world is waking to an outbreak of military conflict between the United States/Israel and Iran 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷. We pray…...
Welcome to a special Intra-Week 3rd Party Research Update! Good Thursday to our investors and traders. While our proprietary reports typically drop on Sundays, the current market “out of gear” phase warrants…...
The fast train 🚞 to nowhere continued this past trading week, although rebounding across all major averages. To reiterate the Finom Group sentiment and outlook offered within our 2026 Outlook report and…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders! During our off-reporting weekend, please take some time to consider our 3rd-Party Research Report, with ample insights from the legendary team at Ned Davis Research, as well…...
That’s twice now that the S&P 500 (SPX) would threaten undercutting the December 2025 low and close negative YTD, and below 6,800. Not optimal for the bulls, but still a rather sizable…...
The biggest winners of January 2026 proved to be the metals. And of course as it was when the Crypto-complex of assets was surging to all-time highs last year, everyone owned them,…...
Last week, we began the process of overviewing the big-picture macro drivers of the stock market as we explored the state of the economy and expectations for earnings. The…...
It’s unfortunate when never before happened, happens, but that is the thing they call LIFE. While it proved a small sample size in the first place, the following quant failed to deliver…...
Although, and per usual, there had been many calls for a bubble bursting moment and recession ahead of and through 2025, neither came to pass… again! It’s a funny thing when you…...
Good weekend all, and we hope the holiday season is finding you enjoying friends, family, health and peace! Good news also; the markets are in the midst of enjoying the first couple…...
While Finom Group’s chief equity market strategist Seth Golden remains on vacation through the month of December, Finom Group continues to deliver 3rd Party Research, relevant technicals, quant updates and more into…...
While Finom Group’s chief equity market strategist Seth Golden remains on vacation through the month of December, Finom Group continues to deliver 3rd Party Research, relevant technicals, and more into the New…...
While Finom Group’s chief equity market strategist Seth Golden remains on vacation through the month of December, Finom Group continues to deliver 3rd Party Research, relevant technicals, and quant data into the…...
2025 is in its home stretch, with investors and market participants from all walks of life along for the ride and hopefully good profits in hand ✋. Welcome to Finom Group’s Full…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders. During this off-reporting weekend and due to the publishing of our future 2026 Macro-Market Outlook Report (currently under construction), please take some time to refresh your Q4…...
Welcome back to our macro-market Research Report, which will serve as our last proprietary report before the publication of the Finom Group 2026 Outlook by month-end November 2025. This past trading week…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders! During our off-reporting weekend, please take some time to review 3rd Party Research and Analysis from around Wall Street, as well as some of our…...
We might know and realize that all good things come to an end, but the markets’ winning streak continued in the month of October. The probability that the S&P 500 (SPX) winning…...
Welcome back to this weekend’s macro-market Research Report! If you are new to Finom Group, please take the time to review previous weekend reports and last year’s published 2025 Outlook report titled…...
Good weekend all, and with markets rebounding ahead of next week’s release of the all-important Consumer Price Index (Friday October 24th). I (Seth Golden) remain on vacation through this weekend in York,…...
Get ready to start your ENGINESSSSSS!! First, a gentile reminder that while Friday’s broad and steep market pullback reminded investors that risks and volatility are intrinsic market characteristics, such a pullback was…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders. During our off-reporting weekend, please comb through our compilation of 3rd-Party Research Reports and updates on certain quants and technicals from Finom Group. We’ll be…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders, and welcome back! Well, it looks like the economy is humming along and despite all the naysayers and doomsayers. The Finom Group economic outlook for 2025 did…...
The last time the S&P 500 delivered a positive September was… last year. But before that you had to go all the way back to 2019, 2018, and 2017; three in a…...
Good Sunday to all Finom Group investors/traders! This past week proved another seasonally defying week of the September calendar month for which we often suggest, “When the market does something it historically…...
The negative consequences of fiscal policy have been seeping into the macroeconomic data for several months and since Liberation Day. While tax legislation (OBBBA) is set to provide a tailwind for economic…...
Just two weeks prior, with headlines still concentrated on all-things White House Administration related and ahead of the Jackson Hole Summit, we remained confident in suggesting higher prices remained for the major…...
As the landscape of global trade and economic policy evolves, the interplay between artificial intelligence, tariff rates, and Federal Reserve decisions presents both challenges and opportunities for investors navigating this complex environment.
The long since herald and feared tariff inflation impact has arrived, and will more than likely take center stage in upcoming monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports,…...
You just can’t keep a good bull market down! Welcome back to this weekend’s macro-market Research Report and with the S&P 500 (SPX) ever so narrowly missing the achievement of its 16th…...
During our off-reporting weekend, we encourage Finom Group investors/traders to consider some of our chronicled analysis as well as 3rd-Party Research offerings outlined. Markets finally had their -1%+ down day after a…...
It’s on everyone’s mind and what everyone is seemingly anticipating at this point in the year, given the extended market rally. “When will the pullback come and how big will it be?”…...
Let’s not be in the business of looking a “gift-horse in the mouth”, so to speak. The market continues to outperform the expectations of the masses, failing to generate any meaningful or…...
During this weekend’s off-reporting cycle, please consider the disseminations from around Wall Street and certain of our updates regarding the technical picture. I (Seth Golden) am back from vacation and look forward…...
Welcome back to the Finom Group macro-market Research Report and a happy 4th of July weekend to everyone! Investors are within one of the best market return periods of the calendar year,…...
On behalf of Finom Group, we are wishing everyone a joyous and safe 4th of July extended weekend! Please take some time to consider this week’s compilation of 3rd-Party Research and be…...
Not a prediction, but rather RECOGNITION! Our framework for the future is recognizing the probabilities, predicated on history. When we consider an S&P 500 price target objective for any given year or…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders. On our off-reporting weekend, please consider browsing the Wells Fargo 2025 Mid-Year Outlook amongst other analysts and strategists considerations as the first half of 2025 completes in…...
Ahead of today’s FOMC rate announcement, press conference with Fed chairman Jerome Powell, and the markets’ closure Thursday to celebrate Juneteenth, please take some time to consider our 3rd-Party Research as part…...
The year 2025 is shaping up to be an event-packed year, with the installation of a new U.S. president endogenously disrupting the global trade structure, and as of this past week, an…...
Whether or not you believed the S&P 500 (SPX) could or would get back to 6,000 this quickly and after plunging below 5,000 in April doesn’t matter. What matters is that you…...
Good weekend to all! During our off-reporting weekend, please take some time to read through the latest report from Morgan Stanley regarding drawdowns and recoveries; not all drawdowns or company stocks are…...
A couple of weeks ago, we took exception with those market participants whom downplayed the 6-week long rally from the market lows in early April. As the month of April found markets…...
For many investors/traders, 2025 will be found for a great deal of regret and “should haves.” Through the Finom Group weekly macro-market Research Reports, I have been pounding the proverbial table regarding…...
Welcome back to this weekend’s macro-market reporting. During our off-reporting week, please read through our macro-economic update and 3rd-party research and analytics. Happy Mother’s Day to all! Before jumping into these insights,…...
Lennart Heim is the Compute Team Lead at RAND’s Technology and Security Policy Center and a Professor of Policy Analysis at RAND School of Public Policy. China will likely match U.S. AI model capabilities this…...
Although the stock market has rallied remarkably since the April 8th low, there will remain a very unhealthy amount of market participants from all walks of life that will remain paralyzed by…...
The impact on real GDP from Trump’s tariffs will depend crucially on whether (and how quickly) the customs duties raised are recycled back into the economy as new tax cuts. We assume…...
Nobody said 2025 was going to be easy? Well, maybe the Wall Street strategists implied so with their median S&P 500 (SPX) forecast of 6,500. Either way, keep your seatbelt buckled, arms…...
Happy Holidays to all Finom Group members, and welcome to this weekend’s 3rd Party Research Compilation. During our off-reporting weekend, please consider the following Analytics from in and around Wall Street, inclusive…...
Only 1 quarter and 8-trading days into 2025, only about 60 days into the new Trump-led White House administration, and what a ride it has been already. If we hadn’t suggested strapping…...
A troubling macro-market landscape, gripped by an endogenous force-factor has been at play since February. The label of this endogeny is now undeniably “Trump Tariffs”, as the immediate reaction to President Trump’s…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders. As this is our off-reporting weekend, please consider the abundance of thoughts, outlooks and analysis offered in our 3rd-Party Research within this weekend’s publication. In addition, we…...
The Major Trend Index held at a bearish reading of -3 for the week ended March 21st. The net scores in the four factor categories were also unchanged; revisions within the Cyclical…...
Well, we have our answer to last week’s question of the week! “So just how powerful is the current endogeny at play?…”While this quant is related to one of the most powerful…...
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The headlines have been exhausting through the Q1 2025 period, whipsawing investors and traders through wild market swings. The whipsawing has been greater to the downside, and completing an unsavory feat of…...
The 5% Canary By Andrew Thrasher, CMT 2023 Charles H. Dow Award Winner ...
Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders!! During our off-reporting weekend, please allow some time to read through our macro-market Research Notes and 3rd Party Research Offering from around Wall Street. We’ll…...
Whether the title is Lift Off… Not Quite: No Mojo Markets or Year 3 of the Ugly Bull Market, the price action is clearly forecasted by these titles of our previous macro-market Research…...
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Nobody likes being right about the bad things, but often there is still a good longer-term outcome to recognize from the analysis. Inside our weekly macro-market Research Report titled Year 3 of…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders. During our off-reporting weekend (2 weeks on, 1-week off), please consider our Research Notes and 3rd-party Research as part of your weekly due diligence process.…...
So far – so weird, but to-be-expected. One month and 1-week into the New Year and it’s already beginning to look a lot like active portfolio management is going to win out…...
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So much of what we do at Finom Group is simply preparation, playing Chess, thinking some 10-steps ahead. Are we always successful in this task; no, but this is the task and…...
The Rise of DeepSeek: What the Headlines Miss Lennart Heim and Sihao Huang Recent coverage of DeepSeek’s AI models has focused heavily on their impressive benchmark performance and efficiency gains. While these…...
Good Sunday Finom Group members, from around the world. During our off-reporting weekend (2 weeks on, 1-week off) this weekend, we ask that you consider the following notes/updates from our chief equity…...
Good Wednesday morning investors and traders! As a reminder, this is our Finom Group off-reporting weekend (2 weekends on, 1 weekend off). With that in mind, I encourage investors/traders to consider the…...
We are going to commence this weekend's macro-market Research Report by stating something that should be obvious, but based on this past week's market rally some may be overlooking: "The markets are still within a consolidation/pullback phase."
Good Wednesday morning investors and traders! Ahead of the official release of the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index for the month of December showed a slower rate of change in…...
Only 2-trading weeks into the calendar year and things have become a whole lot tougher for investors. I will (Seth Golden) be flying solo this weekend, so kindly forgive any grammatical or…...
Good Wednesday morning Finom Group investors and traders! Please consider the following mash-up of 3rd-party Research ahead of this Sunday’s forthcoming Finom Group macro-market Research Report. As always, while we do not…...
Well, it has not been the ideal end or start to calendar years, but somewhat to-be-expected and in accordance with the Finom Group 2025 Outlook. Additionally, the potential bounce we had outlined…...
There are only 2-trading days left in calendar year 2024, and the S&P 500 finished this past week down -1% for the month of December and is now down during the ongoing…...
Merry Christmas🎄 investors/traders from around the globe 🌏 There are only 4-trading days left in 2024, 1 of which is a holiday shortened trading session. The markets had a bit of a…...
Good Sunday investors/traders from around the globe 🌏 There are only 6-trading days left in 2024, two of which are holiday shortened trading sessions. The markets had a bit of a setback…...
With today’s publication, we take a look at some market internals/breadth in order to recognize that while Tech/Growth/QQQs have seen a 2-week long rally or catch-up trade, it has come at the…...
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Good Saturday morning Finom Group members! As I (Seth Golden) remain on vacation through December, keep in mind that our 3rd-party “mash-up”, weekly Research Reports will continue until the New Year. If…...
Good Wednesday morning Finom Group investors/traders! As we welcome newer members at this time of year, please consider that our chief equity strategist Seth Golden is on vacation during the month of…...
Good Sunday morning Finom Group members! As I (Seth Golden) remain on vacation through December, keep in mind that our 3rd-party “mash-up”, weekly Research Reports will continue. If you haven’t already viewed…...
Welcome to one of 2 videos we will be offering in the month of December 2024. We encourage Finom Group members to stay appraised of the year-end trends and the Finom Group…...
Good weekend investors/traders and happy holidays. As I embark upon my December vacation, please stay connected to our weekly 3rd-Party Research publications, and Finom Group macro-market updates. As always, our last proprietary…...
The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended November 22nd, and its four factor categories held steady at their recent…...
Good morning Finom Group investors/traders. As you traverse the year-end macro-market landscape of developments into 2025, please consider our 3rd-party Research as part of your weekly regiment of due diligence. We will…...
2024 is in its home stretch, with investor and market participants from all walks of life along for the ride. With that, welcome back Finom Group investors/traders! We certainly hope your 2024…...
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Good weekend all! Please take some time to review the thoughts and ideas concerning the macro-market landscape since the 2024 Election and around Wall Street. Additionally, we have update some of our…...
Capital Economics We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These…...
Good weekend all! During our off-reporting weekend, please consider our 3rd-party Research compilation from around Wall Street. Our final macro-market Research Report of 2024 will be delivered on November 24, 2024, and…...
The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 for the week ended November 1st. The Sentiment factors moved up a notch to -3, while…...
Back in the 1980s, Dr. Ed Yardeni popularized the phrasing that concerned an investor population, which was believed to be working to “fight the Federal Reserve.” He coined the phrase bond vigilanteism.…...
Markets: Job openings fell in September according to the latest JOLTS report out today, while our “Take this job and shove it indicator” also declined. Even still, as much as the US…...
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Welcome back to the Finom Group weekend macro-market Research Report! As a heads-up, I (Seth Golden) will be flying solo this weekend as Edward Cordoba is fine tuning the official Quantitative Analysis…...
The famine in small cap performance that has seen relative returns wither and fade is now in its seventh year, and investors are wondering if the Fed’s easing cycle will finally be…...
Recall that coming into the month of September, the S&P 500 was on a 4-month positive return winning streak. Historically, this kind of bullish trend is very good both in the interim…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders! This is our “off-reporting” weekend. Please take some time to read our 3rd Party research, which includes analysis from The Leuthold Group, Fundstrat, and Merrill…...
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“Good to know” does not mean what we know is altogether practical. Welcome back investors and traders, to more all-time highs and to our weekly Research Report. Furthermore, welcome to 5,800+. During…...
by Jim Paulsen, The Tush Push has become a popular play among both NFL and college football teams. Put a few beefy linemen right behind your quarterback and run a QB…...
Yardeni Research US Economy I: Permabulls Versus Permabears. Some of our best friends are permabears. They are smart economists and strategists who tend to be bearish. We look to them for…...
Welcome back to our Finom Group macro-market Research Report! September and the Q3 2024 period ended on a high note 🎶 . I don’t have much to lend to this weekend’s conversation,…...
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Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders! While this is our off-reporting weekend, and we’ll be back at it again next weekend with our proprietary macro-market Research Report, please read through some of the…...
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My wife’s great grandmother died this year aged 100. Ida Beckett, this is your life (in US stock returns): Figure 1: S&P price returns over last 100 years1 Source: Bloomberg, Man Group…...
The first rate cut is out of the way, but most were denying the majority probability spelling out a 50bps cut for the first rate cut of the easing cycle. While the…...
The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index continues to oscillate within its neutral zone. There have been no changes to our tactical portfolios since the small equity reductions of July 19th…...
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Hindsight is 20/20, as they say, but regret is front of mind and stickier than even inflation proposes. When we miss opportunities to benefit/gain from market rebounds and rallies, more often than…...
This coming week is important, given the Presidential debate on Tuesday evening (9pm ET). And as we look ahead, we think it is important to keep in mind there are many reasons…...
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: The August jobs report came in at +142k (vs Street +165k) and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3% last month (inline). To us, this is an ideal…...
If you would like to watch this week’s video blog, please feel free to click the provided link! Have a great week and we’ll be reopening the Trading Room next Monday with…...
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Sarcastically speaking, it’s a bit humorous how the recession vibes from early August have almost disappeared by the end of the month. That’s how all of this works, in case you didn’t…...
The Major Trend Index remained at a Neutral reading of zero in the week ended August 23rd. The MTI had been on the cusp of bear territory between August 2nd and August…...
Welcome Finom Group investors and traders! During our off-reporting weekend, we offer the latest insights and analysis from Wall Street alongside our latest thoughts on the macro-market landscape. As an aside, our…...
This coming week is the most important week for August 2024 because of the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Powell speaks on August 23rd (Friday). Last week on 8/13, we noted…...
Goldman Sachs Weekly Market Mashup Goldman Sachs’ Scott Rubner Nvidia Outlook...
If there has been a lesson from the markets over the last several weeks and since the mid-July all-time highs, it’s that investors and traders never want to find themselves overreacting to……...
Well, it definitely got worse before it got better, or got flat for the week. This was largely our expectation for the week-that-was, and as the week kicked into high gear with…...
J.P. Morgan’s Mike Ferolli Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Bank Of America’s Savita Subramanian...
Some macroeconomic storm clouds are brewing. Markets are fleeing for shelter in Treasuries, leaving behind almost everything else, including their prized LargeCap tech stocks and recently acquired SMidCaps. Here’s the market action…...
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The Major Trend Index held at a Neutral reading for the week ended July 26th. A second consecutive weekly decline in the S&P 500 failed to knock down our Technical composite from…...
Another difficult week for the large-cap indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ), which both fell for a second consecutive week. The S&P 500 declined roughly -.8% while the…...
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If it’s been said once it has been said millions of times, “everyone would be a buyer if stocks were cheaper, but when stocks are cheaper they simply lose buying confidence.” With…...
by Tom Lee The major event over the weekend is the failed assassination attempt against former President Trump. This is a huge blessing that the assassin did not succeed. Data from betting…...
Please take some time to read this weekend’s 3rd party Research from DataTrek, Merrill Lynch and Fundstrat. We will restart our usual monthly reporting regime in the coming week. DataTrek’s Nicolaus Colas…...
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Scott Rubner, Managing Director Goldman Sachs This is the last bullish US Equity email that I will be sending out for now, as the last standing bears have capitulated and everyone is…...
Many investors have become quite frustrated by the stock markets’ performance relative to their own portfolio performance. 2024 is one of those years whereby most stocks are underperforming the indices themselves, and…...
Macro Strategy—European Equity Risks Increase, Caution Still Warranted: Last month’s European Union (EU) parliamentary elections have marked a turning point in relative performance between European and U.S. equity markets. European Equities had…...
Macro Strategy—Soft Landing in Progress?: U.S. economic growth remains sturdy, and favorable recent inflation dynamics give the Federal Reserve (Fed) room to bring inflation closer to its 2% target without much damage…...
Although the S&P 500 (SPX) would achieve a new, intraday all-time high this past week (Friday), it would fail to sustain a new all-time high on a closing basis. With all the…...
S&P 500 and QQQ both showed minor weakness late this week, yet failed to do much technical damage. Both SPY and QQQ finished positive on the week, and while there was brief…...
The Leuthold Group: Not Normal The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a Neutral reading of zero for the week ended June 21st, following its downgrade from High Neutral the previous week.…...
We’ve often said at Finom Group, “When the market doesn’t produce the higher probability outcome.” And that probability is in the 90 – 100%ile range… pay closer attention to what the market…...
Small Cap investing remains an exercise in futility, with the Russell 2000 already trailing the S&P 500 by more than 10% through early June. Even Technology stocks can’t escape the curse: The…...
Did The Fed Already Pull It Off To watch our State of the Market Heading Into 2H 2024 video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week team and be…...
Two-Hundred Years of Market Concentration in the United States Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data Investors have noticed the increasing concentration of companies at the top of the stock market…...
Good weekend to all Finom Group members! During our off-reporting weekend, please find the following reporting from RBC Capital and Fundstrat with outlooks for the economy and markets below. This coming week…...
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Throughout this bull market, stock investors have bemoaned an incessant lack of breadth. Leadership has been remarkably narrow. The S&P 500 index has persistently dominated the overall stock market and a small…...
They have been proclaiming a slowing labor and employment market for weeks, if not months. Has the Unemployment Rate (UR) risen? Yes! What they don’t emphasize, however, is the abnormally sustained low…...
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Who could have predicted 🔮 this past Friday’s intraday price action and how the day ultimately concluded? Well, calling for market volatility isn’t really a call. Nonetheless, here is a reminder of…...
Wall Street colloquialisms are rarely justified by data or proven a valid consideration. “Sell in May and Go Away” is mostly a correction/pullback warning. Since 2000, here are the corrections/pullbacks per year,…...
Merrill Lynch: IN THIS ISSUE Macro Strategy—Is Stagflation Likely?: With inflation stubbornly high after briefly surpassing levels not seen in 40 years, the term “stagflation” has been resurrected as a risk for…...
The Major Trend Index remained at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended May 17th. While the MTI graphic shown remains imbalanced, the “net weight” of all the evidence…...
Nothing moves sentiment more than price! You’ve probably heard that phrasing before? The phrasing basically suggests that despite all the variables at play for any given time period, whatever price is doing…...
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Welcome back Finom Group investors and traders! A 3-week decline and then a 3-week rally; what does it mean? From a big picture 🏞 perspective it means a lot of chop and…...
Public Service Announcement: Watch The VIDEO HERE! Bear markets happen, on average, once every 4.1 years. There have been 3 bear markets in the last 5.5 years. Going out on a limb…...
Dr. Ed Yardeni Go figure: Stocks & bonds sold off on Tuesday following a hotter-than-expected Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI). It was up 5.4% q/q (saar) and 4.1% y/y. Today, they both…...
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Welcome back ladies and gentlemen! This weekend’s Research Report will be abbreviated, as we maintain our outlook for 2024, supported by the completion of the Q1 2024 economic data releases. The S&P…...
Try telling an investor that April is typically one of the absolute best months of the year for market returns after the first 3 trading weeks of April 2024. You might get…...
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Good weekend to all ‼️ This weekend is our off-reporting weekend but we continue to deliver market insights, analysis, and 3rd-party Research to support your investing and educational needs! So let’s get…...
After last week’s inflation and jobs reports, the debate rages on about what the Fed will do with interest rates. By week’s end, several economic reports suggesting healthy economic growth, widespread media…...
Last week was “stress test” of sorts for equity markets. The combination of “hot” ISM, coupled with Fed members (Kashkari) speaking of no cuts (even hikes) in 2024 and the very “hot”…...
It was a strange week in the markets. Bears and Bulls made little progress, but bears are seemingly more and more anxious about the state of the market. I’ve seen a lot…...
Are private sector balance sheets, income & profits, liquidity, and pessimism simply too strong to have a recession? By Jim Paulsen Recession risk is weighed in several ways. Are the resources available…...
As we construct this weekend’s macro-market Research Report, the February Personal Income & Expenditures (PCE) data has been released. No real surprises in the data, although the M/M headline PCE was slightly…...
As a reminder, this is Finom Group’s off-reporting weekend, however we continue to disseminate relevant and trusted 3rd-party research by the former chief equity strategist of The Leuthold Group, Jim Paulsen. We’ll…...
If there is 1-thing I’ve learned from the markets over my 24 years, it’s that down is going to happen; accept it for value opportunity. Don’t try to stop it! Down is…...
While the Nvidia hype would make you believe the company owns and drives the entire AI narrative, investors would do well to realize how early we are in the AI monetization cycle.…...
That’s a newer development for the market rally, down 2 consecutive weeks. Whether or not this detraction from the bullish trend morphs into a truer corrective wave, akin to the corrective Summer/Fall…...
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To suggest that the rally off of the October 27, 2023 low has been impressive probably does not do the rally enough justice. The S&P 500 (SPX) benchmark index is now up…...
The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended March 1st. Bullish narratives surrounding AI adoption and “stealth” liquidity injections from the U.S. Treasury…...
Good weekend Finom Group traders/investors! While this is our off-reporting weekend (no proprietary Research Report), we aim to deliver ongoing insights, analysis, charts, and data to consider as we head into March…...
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As the rally has rolled onward and upward, not everyone will achieve markedly satisfying results. Essentially, there will be investors and fund managers with all different strategies and risk allocations that will…...
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Welcome back to this weekend’s Research Report! This weekend’s Report is in PDF format due to issues the Host was having with a new, upgraded server that did not make it possible to upload…...
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If there is 1 thing I’ve learned from the markets over my 23 years, it’s that down is going to happen; accept it for value opportunity. Don’t try to stop it! Down…...
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Based solely on calendar patterns, January’s S&P 500 gain is a mild positive for stocks over the remaining months of the year. Since 1926, a positive January has been followed by S&P…...
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Good Sunday and welcome back Finom Group investors and traders. “Steady as she goes” or “So far so good?” Time will tell, right? How many old adages can you fit into an…...
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With the S&P 500 having recently ascended to a fresh record high after such a strong 2023, it’s natural for investors to worry that valuations have become over-extended. On traditional valuation measures,…...
Welcome back investors/traders! After a rocky start to January 2024, both price and equity market sentiment have renewed bullishness in the 2nd half of January. The momentum from late 2023, demanded some…...
Plunging Core Inflation and Slower Growth will Force the Fed’s Hand * The risk of recession persists, though our base case remains a soft landing. The surge in third quarter GDP growth…...
No matter how many different data sets, seasonal patterns, election cycle studies we look at, they all point to the same bullish long-term outcome, and many point to short-term weakness. Weakness is…...
Sentiment: Plenty of believers = tactical risk in early 2024 Sentiment indicators such as Farrell Sentiment, asset manager S&P 500 (SPX) E-mini net futures position and the 25-day put/call have risen, entering…...
Three big things you need to know: First, across the globe most of our analysts are optimistic on performance in the year ahead, with favorable views on the impact of potentially lower…...
Some of the 21st century’s biggest breakthroughs are happening in health care, transforming the way we diagnose, treat and prevent grave diseases. From gene sequencing and proteomics to the prospect of artificial…...
Welcome back investors and traders! This past week proved a pretty strong bounce-back week for markets after the prior week’s downturn was somewhat to-be-expected. What happens in the week ahead and in…...
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As we entered 2024, investors have been told that just because the calendar changes that doesn’t mean the market trend changes. It turns out, once again, that market sentiment and even price…...
by Michael Cembalest...
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The Major Trend Index held at a neutral reading of zero in the week ended December 22nd. Bullish market action continues to be the main prop under the MTI—and the week’s improvement…...
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We discuss: how S&P 500 valuation is very reasonable as we enter 2024 and this is particularly notable when compared to the 2022 market peak. 2023 is rapidly coming to a close…...
IT’S OFFICIAL! The S&P 500 has achieved our year-end price target of 4,750, formerly disseminated within our weekly Research Report titled “The Worst Month For Capital Returns In Focus : September 2023.” Below…...
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By Robert Sluymer CMT Equity markets are resolving 2-year trading ranges to the upside – Further upside likely in 2024. How should investors think about an equity market that rallied 110% off…...
S&P 500’s annual return after a NEGATIVE RETURN year. Average return the next year = 18%. Remember, however, the AVERAGE was never the outcome. Up 7/9 times the next year = 80%+…...
By Ellen Zetner chief U.S. ecoomist: We expect the Fed to hold the policy rate at 5.375% and to cautiously shift communication from how high to how long. We continue to see…...
In 2023, the S&P 500 gained 20% yet most investors sat on the sidelines as many expected the U.S. economy to slip into a recession. And many remained skeptical throughout 2023 because…...
Most of the measures in the MTI’s Sentiment category—including the Bullish Sentiment of stock market newsletter writers—are interpreted in a contrary fashion. It’s far easier to find indicators that track the “emotional”…...
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Since the start of the rate hike cycle in 2022, regional business cycles have weakened, earnings growth has stagnated (S&P 500 2021-2024E EPS: $208-$225, ~2.5% CAGR), and the market has moved sideways…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders. As a reminder, throughout the month of December, our chief equity market strategist Seth Golden will be on vacation, but receiving requests for calls and…...
Context and Comprehension are Key 🔑 A woman without her man is nothing! A woman: without her, man is nothing! If you would like to watch the video hosted by Finom Group’s…...
CTAs’ net long position in USD/JPY cut by half from its recent peak Macro hedge funds may act on the expectation of a year-end rally. The pick-up in US equity markets continued…...
Seasonal trends are mostly about knowing where to look… and when! For this weekend Research note we are going to explore the big picture perspective, as the decade (2020s) roll forward. Investors…...
NVIDIA reported Oct results (revenue/GMs/EPS ) well above consensus and off of a higher Oct-Qtr revenue base, the team guided to a 10% Q/Q increase in the Jan-Qtr, well-above consensus on continued…...
The Major Trend Index moved up to the neutral zone in the week ended November 17th, winding up a six-week stint in bearish territory. The net score rose two notches to zero,…...
At a time when some are calling for a pause on the development of generative artificial intelligence, Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, has an argument for accelerating the work: AI…...
How about them Small-caps? How about that follow-through? How about the 3-week rally which has seen the S&P 500 rally some 10 percent? That’s right; the S&P 500 (SPX) is up 10%…...
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The Leuthold Group tactical accounts remain positioned defensively, although not to the extent they could be given the bearish weight of the evidence. Net equity exposure in the Core Fund, Core private…...
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The last two trading weeks have not made the bulls whole, but have certainly slashed the hopes of those who were/are positioned bearishly and with the hopes of bad outcomes for equities.…...
In January, the “inventor” of the yield-curve indicator—Campbell Harvey of Duke University—suggested that the inversion of the 10Y/3M spread was “flashing a false signal,” and a U.S. recession would be avoided. But…...
Nobody, not once, not ever, said it would be easy to make money in the financial markets as an investor or a trader. Even with such an understanding, there is a difference…...
Equity sentiment declined for the first time since May Our Sell Side Indicator (SSI) is a contrarian sentiment barometer that tracks sell side strategists’ average recommended allocation to equities in a balanced…...
Since our publication of Cost of Higher for Longer in February, we have seen interest rates across the curve move higher with expectation for rates to remain restrictive for longer. Liquidity continues…...
9 key macro events this week, but Treasury refunding most important arguably. Incoming data likely soft-ish which should help break negative doom loop on stocks. We discuss: Tireless Ken and team analyzed…...
The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios…...
Markets are showing increasing stress, deteriorating market internals/breadth, and investors will advantage themselves with a game plan. Check out our latest video by clicking the link provided. This is our off-reporting weekend,…...
While there are plenty of events and fundamental data points worth considering, we find many remain fixated on the Fed’s next move and S&P 500 price. These factors appear to be dictating…...
There was a great deal of concern for the manner in which the equity markets closed the week, 2 weeks ago; down Thursday and Friday trading sessions. As mentioned last week: “When…...
A Note: Structurally, the market needs breadth to improve this week, which demands improved performance from Equal-Weights and Small-Caps! Without such improvements, if not leadership, the market remains vulnerable to headline, downside…...
Despite another positive weekly performance by the S&P 500 (SPX) this past trading week, it didn’t really feel that way based on the declines in the final 2 trading sessions of the…...
In lieu of our regularly scheduled State of the Market video analysis, this week we offer a general public video to review some of the market conditions and macro developments since August.…...
Fiscal constraints limit policy response at a time when cyclical risks persist. Market breadth reflects this dynamic as the S&P 500 defends key technical support. We share takeaways from our roundtable with…...
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The analysis and Research within comes via the monthly Macro-Memo from RBC Capital Wealth Advisors: We have been predicting a recession for quite some time. The possibility first came into focus in…...
The weekend is where many a discipline and devoted investor/portfolio manager spend most of their free time in the exercise of macro-market research and/or due diligence, as it is more profoundly referenced.…...
“The most important financial lessons aren’t learned slowly during bull markets. They are seared into your brain in bear markets” ~Brian Feroldi If you would like to watch this week’s State of the…...
1. The economy is holding up better than expected, but recession risk remains. In the third quarter, easing inflation and stronger economic growth helped fuel optimism for a soft landing. However, monthly…...
Thank goodness that is over with; September and the historically weaker returns associated with Q3 are complete! The period that just ended did very much live up to its historical performance, disrupting…...
On markets, not much has changed since our August Rasputin piece. While most leading indicators point to weaker US growth by Q1, the expected decline is modest as potential recessions go. Tighter…...
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In my conversations over the years with retail investors — many of whom are novices (not that there’s anything wrong with that) — most don’t swap their long positions for short positions…...
Key takeaways Soft landing (47% Bearish signals vs 58% in Sep-22), but still below-trend outlook; mfg take-off unlikely before easing Slow-but-steady pick up in world EPS to mid-single digit growth in the…...
September is very much living up to its usual swooning of price action, and finding investors recoiling. The seasonality surrounding September (say that 10 times fast), regardless of its consistency and seemingly…...
Let’s begin with a mea culpa. In my note of 18 May 2023, I wrote that the risk/reward for equities versus bonds was in favor of the latter. Since then, US equities are…...
A “soft landing” for the economy in the US seems increasingly possible, so we look back at previous similar episodes to get an idea of what might be ahead for equities there. Despite…...
The explosion of interest in artificial intelligence this year has fueled a major rally in technology stocks, with a concentrated group of large US companies leading the market higher. This slate of “early winners,”…...
Let’s not blow things out of proportion, as the first full trading week of September and month-to-date returns are already off too a poor start. We have always known that this particular…...
The Paradox: The #1 concern for most investors/traders forces the diversification of a portfolio, which ultimately and perpetually underperforms a more concentrated Growth portfolio .. large drawdowns! To overcome this fear is…...
RBC Capital’s chief market strategist Lori Calvasina: Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast recording August 28th, 2023. I’m Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Please listen…...
Well, it looks like I’ll be the only one at Finom Group working this weekend. Edward and the Support team will be enjoying the extended holiday weekend, so bear with grammatical errors…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: US Q2 reporting delivered soft earnings growth and less upbeat corporate guidance, as corporates are seeing demand and prices soften with ongoing margin pressure. The consensus 2024 EPS growth rate…...
The U.S. money supply is shrinking for the first time since 1949, as savings deposits decline and the Federal Reserve shrinks its $8 trillion balance sheet. The drop stems mostly from changes in Fed…...
Capital Economics We think the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year well below its current level. The sell-off in Treasuries seems to have abated somewhat today. But they haven’t had too much…...
Keep it simple stunad! Permabears/doomsayers live in a world of predetermined, low probability, negative finality. Bulls/optimists get paid! You decide… ~Seth Golden If you would like to watch this week’s State of…...
Price momentum is a key driver of sentiment, especially in a late cycle environment when uncertainty about the outcome is high. With recent price action taking a decided turn lower, we think…...
August has proven itself to be a “Wall of Worry” and the point for which the former “good overbought” conditions have recoiled. In fact, August 2023 to-date has expressed the worst August…...
Question: “How do you perform well over time and never let the volatility deter you?” Answer: “Position long, hope for lower prices every day, accumulate when discounts arrive… and then wait.” ~Seth…...
The stock market rally off the washed-out lows of early last fall has run further and for longer than most had expected. U.S. large-cap outperformance has been largely powered by a handful…...
Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast recorded August 7th, 2023. I’m Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Please listen to the end of this podcast for…...
The consolidation phase is upon us. It is more recognizably taking place, and as usual, causing investors to doubt the bull market. It is that same doubt that surfaced in the midst…...
The month of October gets all the “love,” but since 1990, August has been the cruelest month for stocks. We point this out because calendar patterns lately seem to explain this market…...
Those who are unwilling to accept double-digit drawdowns are less likely to receive double-digit returns! Take your drawdown like big boys/girls and reap those double-digit returns over time. Volatility is simply the…...
Optimism around a US policy pivot has continued to support valuation. In today’s note, we discuss parallels to prior pivotdriven rallies as well as recent trends in earnings revisions and performance breadth.…...
“Experience is what you get when you don’t get what you want.” ~Howard Marks So if you missed the now 9-month long rally from Oct. lows, good news is you gained experience?…...
Offered below is the latest chart pack from RBC Capital’s chief technical strategist Robert Sluymer. In addition, please continue to read the latest insights from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, accompanied by data concerning…...
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The most painful thing to watch with traders is the belief that markets have to prove something to THEM, while they try to extrapolate something from IT. ~Seth Marcus If you would…...
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It was a far less interesting week in the markets than the 2%+ decline in the Nasdaq, on Thursday, would have investors assume. Additionally, with the S&P 500 (SPX) finishing monthly Op/EX…...
“While so many worry about trying to grab a few pennies in front of a steamroller… We could be picking up gold coins in front of a tricycle. Optimism wins, pessimism loses…...
As interest rates climb and inflation shows signs of cooling — where are stocks in the market cycle? Equities markets usually have four phases, and right now stocks are in the “optimism” stage,…...
The table has turned. In 2022, the S&P 500 (SPX) and peer indices finished the first half of the year at a very low point. In 2023, the S&P 500 finished at…...
Remember that valuation is only expensive relative to history, and irrespective of the future! If I might introduce you to the likes of Nvidia? ~Seth Golden If you would like to watch…...
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Leading economic indicators continue to slip lower. Yet, bulls, who rightly counseled against “fighting the Fed” during the free-money era, have ditched their own sound advice. Predictably, their focus has migrated to…...
Our weekly State of the Market video and macro-market weekend Research Report are postponed due to holiday weekend. In the meantime, below is some pertinent data and analysis to keep front of…...
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Another quick snapback for markets after breaking a 5-week win streak for the S&P 500 (SPX) and 8-week win streak for the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ). If you’ve doubted the validity of the…...
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If Risk Management is priority #1… Is that Opportunity Risk or is that Downside Risk? The threat from the former is historically greater than the latter. ~Seth Golden If you would like…...
The Fed’s June announcement of a pause with further rate hikes to come has extended the uncertainty of whether an inverted curve and persistent policy tightening will ultimately lead to a recession.…...
By J.P. Morgan Wealth Management There’s no shortage of worries batting around: the Fed is holding resolute on its call for two more rate hikes, U.S. regional banks still face challenges like…...
Macro Strategy—Equity Market Climbs A “Wall Of Worry” Yet Again: Moderating domestic demand growth, big energy price declines, loosening labor market conditions, and softening wage growth have boosted confidence in a “soft…...
Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty. ~Ed Seykota If you would…...
With the halfway point of 2023 two weeks away, the S&P 500 has broken out to a 12-month high. The index has accomplished that feat 32 times during the month of June—or…...
As investors debate the merits of generative artificial intelligence, a key question is what it could mean for the stock market. Take Nvidia for example: last month the semiconductor firm said it…...
Welcome back investors! In this weekend’s macro-market Research Report, we intend to catch-up on the markets’ year-to-date performance and advance the probabilities for markets going forward. The S&P 500 finished Thursday (6/15)…...
The Major Trend Index moved up one notch to a net reading of zero (Neutral) in the week ended June 9th. The Sentiment category dipped into negative territory for the first time…...
Check out some top-of-mind topics and subject matter surrounding the market ahead of this week’s key economic data and an FOMC on Wednesday. If you would like to watch the full video,…...
Key takeaways Bank of America internal data suggests consumer spending was broadly stable in May, with Bank of America total card spending per household up 0.1% month-over-month (MoM), seasonally adjusted. The year-over-year…...
Echoes Of 2021 Like us, we suspect most of our research clients have at least one or two non-professional acquaintances who’d be outstanding analysts at that mythical investment firm, Clairvoyant Capital. You…...
“If you are not willing to risk the unusual, you will have to settle for the ordinary! Everyone must choose from one of two pains. The pain of discipline or the pain…...
Hotter but shorter cycles persist — we continue to forecast an earnings recession this year that we don’t think is priced, followed by a sharp EPS rebound in 2024/2025. We recommend investors…...
Good Sunday Finom Group members. As previously mentioned and due to a death in the family, we are not able to deliver our usual deep-dive, macro-market Research Report this weekend. Having said…...
Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down. ~Warren Buffett If you would like to watch the weekly State of the Market video,…...
We know that historical analogs and averages can be overdone in market analysis, and our statistical approach (and maybe our longevity) makes us even more susceptible to looking for patterns that might…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: Equities rallied to YTD highs on optimism around a US debt ceiling resolution, a move that seems misplaced given they were never pricing in a material risk of failure to…...
Pundits and gurus master the art of going out on a limb without going out on a limb. ~Philip Tetlok If you would like to watch the recorded State of the Market…...
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Boom! It just got “real”, as the kids say. The boom is the equivalent of the S&P 500 (SPX) finally getting back above 4,200, intraday. Is the intraday label 🏷 noteworthy? It…...
“Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do.” ~Pele If you would like to…...
Interactions with clients suggest our 2023 earnings forecast is now very much out of consensus. This is a change from earlier in the year, and raises the likelihood of earnings disappointment that’s…...
There are a great many opinions on the market and the potential outcome/s for the debt ceiling that lay ahead. We have taken the liberty of disseminating such opinions from various Wall…...
Just 10 days ago, the Federal Reserve signaled a likely pause in the rate hiking campaign to fight inflation. Since then, while a risk event had been cleared from the markets, a…...
There isn’t much ‘feeling’ on the part of bulls or bears these days. As discussed previously, with seven months having passed since the October low, it doesn’t feel like a bear market,…...
Long-term trends and short-term emotions are both powerful. Former can build wealth, latter can sabotage that effort. ~Brian G of Alphacharts Facts: Nobody has been more wrong than the 🐻 in 2023.…...
Waking From A Slumber? We’re very skeptical that the rally from last October’s low represents the first leg of new bull market. But if it is—as many believe—then it has unquestionably inherited…...
Technically Vulnerable? For this week’s segment of “Looking at the charts/quants”, we’ll lead with the most perfect of quant data that we have highlighted many a time in the past; it is…...
Soooooo… feels like the market is running in place, right? Since hitting its initial 2023 high on February 2nd (4,195), the market had retraced all of the gains, rallied back within a…...
“It’s one thing to have forecasts, but if you can’t get what’s going on right now correct, there’s no way you’ll be right about what’s happening later” ~Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro…...
Investors’ belief in a 2H EPS recovery is growing amid a stronger than expected reporting season. Meanwhile, the recent leading macro data have slowed further. We recommend owning high operational efficiency and…...
By Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—The Calm Before the Storm? Economic indicators continue to support our view that U.S. growth is on a slowing trajectory as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive liquidity tightening…...
The big money is made in waiting and simplicity. Not in overactivity and complexity. ~Brian G of Alphacharts You can digest all the macro-fundamental data/narratives in the world; it still won’t make…...
The coming week will prove a meaningful earnings week, as the Mega-cap Growth companies will be reporting their quarterly results. Due to their contribution to the S&P 500’s total earnings, the cumulative…...
While we are forgoing our traditional State of the Market recording and process, please review our latest video (link here) and supporting content from the trading week. Additionally, we have included the…...
It really feels like the markets have not traveled too low or too high since hitting their peaks in February 2023, after what has been a protracted bear market. Whether or not…...
“It’s not that optimism solves all of life’s problems; it is just that it can sometimes make the difference between coping and collapsing.” – Lucy MacDonald If you would like to watch…...
By Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—Deep Credit Restraint Likely In The Pipeline: Rapid-fire Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes over the past year quickly brought housing activity to its knees, as it’s…...
In recent years, we’ve supplemented our longstanding normalized earnings technique with the simpler method of referencing any past peak in EPS (or, for that matter, trailing peaks in other corporate fundamentals, like…...
David Tepper was once asked about his thoughts on Gold and whether or not it has a place in the average investor’s portfolio. “The markets rarely are what we want them to…...
by Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Company Recent increase in Fed balance sheet is not QE, in our view…Many investors believe the Fed’s recent intervention to stabilize the banking system is the…...
What a quarter, right? The Q1 2023 period was a rollercoaster ride unlike any in recent history, as the markets rocketed higher in January, peaked in early February, gave up all the…...
If you came to the markets in 2008, that you likely will relate everything since and to come to that period. Rarely, however, do market events repeat so perfectly. Rather, they skip…...
By Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Team With bond markets questioning the Fed’s dot plot, bond volatility has increased markedly. We think stocks are next as investors realize earnings guidance looks unrealistic.…...
Macro Strategy—Time to End Quantitative Tightening Fast Approaching: Quantitative tightening (QT) has reached its limits in the regional banking sector where reserves are now back to the “ample reserve” minimum that forced…...
Avoid at all costs: If you’re bullish on the markets you are probably only digesting bullish data points. If you are bearish on the markets you are probably only digesting bearish data…...
With the back-stopping of bank deposits by the Fed/FDIC, many equity investors are asking if this is another form of QE and therefore “risk on.” We argue it’s not, and instead represents…...
There is never a time to not be honest with oneself as an investor/trader. We should always remain objective and flexible with respect to incoming data, be it fundamental, technical or quantitative…...
The non-seasonally adjusted headline CPI eased for an eighth consecutive month to 6.0% in February (Chart 1). The seasonally adjusted month-over-month headline figure came in at 0.4%, down a tick from January’s…...
By Ian Shephardson of Pantheon Macro Economic Slowing Wage Gains will Give the Fed Room to Pause, but not Yet The 265K increase in February private payrolls supports our view that January’s…...
I don’t know that there were many investors/traders who anticipated the route in markets this past week, but there are some seasonal factors at play suggesting that March’s price action is on-trend,…...
Critical Technical Support Holds This week’s note will be shorter than normal given the Tech playbook note we also published today ahead of our conference this week in San Francisco. Given our…...
Slower spending growth in February The growth in Bank of America credit and debit card spending per household decelerated in February to 2.7% YoY, from 5.1% YoY in January. On the month…...
To achieve long-term success over many financial market and economic cycles, observing a few rules is not enough. Too many things change too quickly in the investment world for that to succeed.…...
by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomic ADP and JOLTS are Unreliable Guides to Labor Market Trends The record of the all-new ADP methodology in predicting the first estimate of the monthly official…...
For those disappointed that February’s employment report won’t be released until March 10th, we have something to consider in the meantime. There are two series from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey…...
Can’t say it hasn’t been an interesting Q1 2023, right? With the New Year getting off to a sizzling start, and yet investor sentiment remaining rather suspect, some “payback” was likely in…...
All intelligent investing is value investing, acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock ~ Charlie Munger If you would like to…...
by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomics The first indication that January’s warmer-than usual weather would boost economic activity was the spike in auto sales, reported on February 1. New unit car and…...
Humans are addicted to doomsday narratives. I’ve noticed that sometimes people WANT things to be worse than they are, so their neuroticism and paranoia will be vindicated. But this perspective is not…...
Stepping back from the January noise, the trends in core economic activity data are discouraging. It’s unrealistic to think that the full hit from the Fed’s actions have already worked through the…...
We only know what we know! In the future, we’ll know more through experiences or dedicated educational exercises, or a combination of the two. As it pertains to investing: It’s hard to…...
Good day Finom Group members. As I continue to recover from my illness early this year (cough/cold), we will be foregoing this week’s State of the Market video. But please continue to…...
Core Services Inflation is Sticky, but the Fed is Exerting a Lot of Pressure Core CPI services inflation is still sticky; the Fed’s favored measure of services ex-energy and rents rose 0.36%…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: With equities trading near last summer’s highs and at above-average multiples, despite weakening earnings and the recent sharp move higher in interest rates, we maintain that markets are overpricing recent…...
Larger narrative is Fed “disinflation” is a massive course correction. Strong Jan equity returns borrowing from Feb, but dip buying still makes sense. (by Fundstrat) The January jobs report was strong =…...
To take a page out of last weekend’s Research Report, let’s highlight the theme centered on the probability of an interim consolidation/pullback, as follows: “It’s rare to know precisely when a pullback…...
“During his tenure Lynch trounced the market overall and beat it in most years, racking up a 29 percent annualized return. But Lynch himself pointed out a fly in the ointment. He…...
Macro Strategy—Fixed Income Positioning: Be Circumspect and Mind the Disconnect: For the past several months, risk assets including credit have had a remarkable rally against a significantly weakening economic environment. More recently,…...
If you would like to watch our weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link . Have a great trading week and be on the lookout for this…...
The ECI is the best measure of wage growth, but you still need to look under the hood, not at the headline… …Private sector wages, ex-incentive pay, is the key metric, and…...
Doug Ramsey Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager: Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global Fund.…...
Chief Investment Office Macro Strategy Team at Merrill Lynch: Macro Strategy—Treasury Offsetting QT Until Mid-Year: The looming debt ceiling crisis is pressuring the U.S. Treasury to drain hundreds of billions of dollars…...
Yield curve is the most inverted in decades, yet many parts of the market are making new 52-week highs. ISM below 50 yet industrials, materials are some of the strongest sectors. Mortgage…...
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The bull vs. bear battle wagered on this past trading week, as the bears attempted to wrestle back into focus the downside risks to equities that defined the 2022 bear market. They…...
Bear markets are like a Hall of Mirrors, designed to confuse investors and take their money. Trust YOUR fundamental process. For us, margins/earnings are likely to significantly disappoint whether there is a…...
January 13, 2023 by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Group This year is off to a much stronger start than suggested by the 3-4% gains in the blue-chip averages: Through January 12th, the…...
While we can’t be sure that the bear market ended on October 13, 2022, with the S&P 500 falling to 3,491, the New Year has started far better than 2022. Eyebrows are…...
“Keep It Simple Stunad for 2023: Market will be well beyond your comfort-BUY level by the time your defined signals are confirmed. It is why you are constantly re-defining your confirming signals.…...
Market veterans know there’s just one thing more probable than a recession after the yield curve inverts: Yield curve denial among a large group of sell-side economists and market strategists! Indeed, the…...
Last year proved a painful time to be an investor, and for the most part, it didn’t matter what asset class you favored. 2022 will go down as the 7th worst year…...
Introduction The U.S. economy will struggle in 2023 with halting growth and higher unemployment. Recession is a serious threat. But the Moody’s Analytics baseline forecast—the most-likely outlook—holds that the economy will avoid…...
When you believe in a future that is so alive in your mind that you keep living it over and over, your mind “front runs” your current environment and pulls you in…...
Despite all the uncertainty across today’s global capital markets, we are poised to enter 2023 with a more constructive tilt, especially on many parts of Credit. Our basic premise is that it…...
by Barry Napp Our 2022 outlook note was titled Inflation Politics & Policy and began with a section titled “liquidity trickle”. In retrospect we got the effect of the reversal of excessive liquidity…...
The 2022 bear market will be remembered as a year when collapsing growth stock valuations and rising interest rates doomed almost every asset class to return purgatory. Hopes for avoiding a second…...
What does “back to the new future” mean? The era of quantitative easing and a quick trigger Fed easing policy stance are effectively over. Inflation comes back down to earth exhibiting characteristics…...
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Approaching the end of the year, it is natural to wonder: What lies ahead? Where does this road lead? Often, navigating markets is a test for how much ambiguity we can handle.…...
This week’s focus is likely to be centered on CPI and the Fed. To us, that is yesterday’s news; while it’s important for the next week / year-end trading ranges, the final…...
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The Federal Reserve has not yet begun easing, but “Easing” is a multi-dimensional event, and increasingly, the outlines of a new cycle (often associated with the beginning of a bull market) are…...
In The Illusion of Knowledge (September 2022), I railed against macro forecasting, which in our profession mostly concerns the next year or two. And in I Beg to Differ (July 2022), I discussed the questions I…...
I’ve gathered a few ideas from several of my memos this year – plus some recent musings and conversations – to form the subject of this memo: what really matters or should…...
By: Doug Ramsey Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global…...
Absolute best investors I’ve encountered aren’t successful because they predicted the trend or the macro-outlook, but because they have a time-tested process that doesn’t rely on such predictions! ~Seth Marcus If you…...
2023 Global Economic Outlook • With financial conditions tightening and the winter aggravating China’s COVID and Europe’s natural gas problems, the global expansion is projected to proceed at a sub-par 1.5%ar pace…...
There is still considerable debate about whether the bear market has yet set its low. Certainly, if the U.S. economy is headed for a deep recession, stock investors will face additional, significant…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: The October US CPI release delivered the largest downward inflation surprise since the start of the pandemic, raising the likelihood of a soft landing scenario. However, with a Fed Funds…...
By Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group Inflation has been slowing for the last several months and finally appeared in the “headline” numbers last week. Although a single comforting CPI report will…...
If you are not willing to risk the unusual, you will have to settle for the ordinary! Everyone must choose from one of two pains. The pain of discipline or the pain…...
Ahead of the holiday and turn of year period, Morgan Stanley publishes their outlook for 2023. The outlook is no different with regards to future revisions that are always a possibility as…...
Investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game! ~Ben Graham If you would like to watch our weekly State of the Market, please click…...
With each passing week in 2022, we analyze, scrutinize, and rationalize a litany of macro-fundamental, technical, and quantitative data. This week, however, we won’t be doing the same ole’ same ole’, as…...
“Time in the market” is only a benefit if the market is heading in a positive direction. Otherwise, idleness is a curse not a blessing. ~Willie Delwiche If you would like to…...
Since at least Jackson Hole, the narrative has been that inflation is a big problem, and the Federal Reserve was up for the fight—certifying it would raise interest rates quickly, substantially, and…...
What a week, month I mean. The first three quarters of 2022 have been disasterous for investors of all types. Recall that year-to-date through Q3 had been the worst start for a…...
“Do you know what investing for the long run, but listening to market news everyday is like? It’s like a man walking up a big hill with a yo-yo and keeping his…...
Last week’s tactical bullish call was met with doubt from clients, which means there is still upside as we transition from Fire to Ice—falling inflation expectations can lead to lower rates and…...
“The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan. Stick to the good plan.” ~ Jack Bogle If you would like to watch this week’s State of…...
Unfortunately our monthly-cycle, weekend macro-market Research Report will be postponed until Sunday October 30, 2022, due to an unexpected family visit. As we often offer, today’s 3rd party Research is disseminated by…...
I’ll be flying solo for this weekend’s Research Report, as Edward is off this weekend. So forgive any shortcomings in spelling and grammar, kindly. With that being said, welcome back, even if…...
Everything you need to know about what separates the big winners from everyone else. “Signals” are sexy, exciting and mysterious. “Learning” is hard work. Same as it ever was. ~Jay Kapeal If…...
Welcome back Finom Group members! As we kick-off the monthly reporting cycle, we are recognizing gains for the first week of the 4th quarter of 2022. We are also recognizing that it…...
Hardest thing for most traders/investors to do is to pull the trigger and execute the trade. They put risk management ahead of risk taking, even though logic dictates there is no risk…...
Cross-asset Strategy: Stocks and bonds continued to sell off last week on central bank hawkishness. The hawkish Fed outcome with significant upward revision to the dots leads us to now expect a…...
In roughly the last 10 trading sessions, the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMPQ) have lost 10% of their value. That is how quickly the market is derating. The decline has happened…...
The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the greater the upside. ~George Soros You don’t have to know the future. What you want to know…...
As the evidence builds around our more bearish earnings outlook, the stock market has traded lower again. While we think there is still a long way to go before reality is fairly…...
Markets are firmly in the thrawls of another September swoon, which is all-too familiar and painful for many investors. The strength and above average returns in the prior week were supplanted by…...
Bear markets are about buying value! Bull markets are about realized profits for value seekers! In other words: “INVESTORS MAKE ALL THEIR MONEY IN BEAR MARKETS , THEY JUST DON’T KNOW IT…...
Welcome back Finom Group traders and investors. As most are aware, the rollercoaster ride that is the 2022 investing landscape is a difficult one to traverse. We believe that the best approach…...
From inside Oaktree Financial Services monthly newsletter, written by famed investor Howard Marks. Here’s an excerpt from an excellent article that appeared at Bloomberg.com, written by Charles Lieberman about the media’s nearly…...
1H22 was challenging for most risk assets as the Fed pivoted more sharply than most expected. The de-rating for US stocks was punctuated by a brief growth scare in June, although valuations…...
Macro Strategy—QT Kicks into Second Gear: Financial conditions are likely to remain under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) quantitative tightening (QT) program kicks into a higher gear in September. A doubling…...
In 1987 shortly after Black Monday Peter Lynch was interviewed about the minimal hedging incorporated within the Magellan Fund: “Perpetually planning for downside in constructs that perpetually move higher is a puzzle…...
Chair Powell and the Fed make it crystal clear that their job fighting inflation remains unfinished. Ironically, while bonds took the message in stride, stocks seemed to be shocked by the messaging.…...
With consecutive down weeks for the markets and the manner in which this past Friday played out for investors, dismay, pessimism, and doubt are likely to plague investor sentiment once again. On…...
In bull markets, investors are blind to the risks. In bear markets, investors are blind to the opportunities ~ Brian Feroldi If you would like to watch the State of the Market…...
A 4-week winning streak has come to an end for markets. As reported in last week’s Research Report, this held a reasonable probability after a nearly 18% rally in the S&P 500…...
If this were a Bear Market Rally then the S&P 500 gain of +17.19% off the decline of -23.55% would be the GREATEST bear market rally ever after an interim bear market…...
Welcome back to our weekly Research Report cycle (3-weeks on, 1 week off). The markets are expressing a very consistent pattern that we’ve analyzed and outlined for several months, as the bear…...
If we know that bad times are temporary and progress is undefeated, why is it so hard to stay invested when stocks fall? I buy the argument that there are some evolutionary…...
The rise in inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it has been a real headwind for valuations this year. However, it’s also been a tailwind for earnings. Now, we are on the…...
Macro Strategy—Powell On A Mission: U.S. policymakers responded to the pandemic shutdowns with the most aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus in over 75 years (Exhibit 1). As a result, monetary policy since…...
So this just happened: The S&P 500 gained 3.9% from the day of the Fed hike through the following trading day. That is officially the best rally after a Fed hike going…...
“Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. If you didn’t get the deferred-gratification gene, you’ve got to work very hard to overcome that.”…...
Key talking points Aggregate retail inventories have been steadily improving as demand for goods moderates and supply chain bottlenecks ease. The retail inventory to sales ratio has ticked up from the Oct…...
It’s difficult to be too optimistic with another 75bps rate hike (almost certainly) coming next week, and especially given how the week ended for the markets. However, the S&P 500 (SPX) and…...
“Bear market rallies are labeled because things get so badly discounted they foster the idea that it has to get better from here. The bear market rally is validated with lower lows…...
While Defensives are the clear leader, most investors aren’t there, leaving more upside potential as earnings cuts begin. Counter-trend rally may continue, but make no mistake, we don’t believe this bear market…...
A big WELCOME BACK to all of our Finom Group members, as we kick-off another monthly cycle of Research Reports and macro-market analysis. This past week found the major averages consolidating gains…...
A very strong US dollar provides yet another headwind for earnings. Meanwhile, from a historical perspective, this bear market may only be about half way done in terms of time and perhaps…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: While growth risks are elevated, our base case looks for an acceleration in global growth in the second half of the year, led by China, and a moderation in inflationary…...
Macro Strategy—Volatile Times Ahead: Untethered money-supply fluctuations have created a new, more volatile environment for asset allocation. Until the Federal Reserve (Fed) reins in the sharp swings in liquidity, uncertainty and inflation…...
Key talking points Bank of America aggregated credit and debit card spending was up 11% year-over-year (YoY) in June. Meanwhile aggregated card spending per household was up 3.3% YoY in the 28-days…...
Fear dominates in times that are especially uncomfortable. Bear market, recession, yield curve inversion, whatever….Negative focus/thinking is a self-perpetuating prison of the mind. The trader has control over their situation. The successful…...
The S&P 500 finished the month of June down -15%+ over the last 3 months and -20%+ over the last 6 months. It was a dreadful first half of the year, the…...
Behavioral Finance tells us that you can broadly think of your happiness as just “Reality minus Expectations”. H = R-E; or said another way, are things going better for me than I…...
Key talking points We take a look at how consumers have historically adjust their spending during recessions and compare these findings to what Bank of America high frequency aggregated credit and debit…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) rallied sharply this past week, gaining 6.45 percent. This is the second 6%+ weekly gain in just the last 4 week period. It’s rather remarkable, as we revisited…...
When you feel like giving up, realize that at that very moment, you are at the same fork in the road that everyone eventually faces. If you quit, you are being just…...
With our view for lower multiples and earnings now more consensus, the markets are more fairly priced. However, it does not price the risk of a recession, in our view, which is…...
The great Q1 2022 earnings have proven the forward-looking nature of markets. I’m kicking-off this weekend’s Research Report with this assertion, because Seth and I are of the opinion it proves an…...
Equity Risk Premium holds key inputs/ingredients After major market sell-offs, it becomes increasingly difficult to achieve lower-lows. They are not impossible, obviously, just increasingly difficult. At some point, valuations and the hunt…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: Friday’s strong CPI print that led to a surge in yields, along with the sell-off in crypto over the weekend, are weighing on investor sentiment and driving the market lower.…...
Macro Strategy—Inflation Dimming Economic Outlook: On multiple levels, including strong labor demand, decades-low household leverage, lack of excesses on the housing construction/business investment fronts, massive household savings accumulated during the pandemic, and…...
“People who succeed in the stock market also accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences. Calamitous drops do not scare them out of the game.” – Peter Lynch. The “Market Trap” is…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: The growth-policy tradeoff appears set to improve in 2H, and earnings revisions turned broadly positive in key regions. Chinese equities may have reached their turning point as lockdowns begin to…...
The headlines were daunting and played out in price action this past week much as the first 100+ days of the trading year have already demonstrated, TREACHEROUSLY! Here are some of the…...
Due to a scheduling conflict, there will not be a weekly SOTM this week. We anticipate being back on schedule next week. Stay tuned for this weekend’s weekly Research Report! Have…...
Many investors and traders were left feeling quite dejected the previous week, as a 6-week losing streak for the major averages turned into a 7-week losing streak. The streak of unprecedented and…...
Trading this market can be quite frustrating, with historically high likelihood setups repeatedly failing. I keep myself sane by always remembering, great trading/PM skills are not built on the things that go…...
Welcome back traders and investors! I thought it a better way to kick-off this weekend’s Research Report, given the unwelcoming price action by equity markets through 2022. Unwelcoming price action today, but…...
EVERY BEAR MARKET EVER FOMO turns into, GIDOT (glad I don’t own that), everyone claims they were raising cash ahead of time, everyone references 1987, 2000, 2008 or 1929, everyone quotes MikeTyson’s,…...
‘Fire’ AND ‘ice’ persist in the US…Monetary policy continues to tighten as confirmation emerges that growth is slowing (PMIs decelerating, earnings revisions deteriorating, and GDP growth contracted last quarter). The S&P 500…...
By the team at Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—Global Growth Weakening Fast, Fed On Track To Make Matters Worse: The escalation of the Ukraine/Russia conflict has caused growing worries about the prospects for…...
Bears from 2009-2021: “A crash is coming!” Bears in 2022: “I told you so!” ~Douglas Boneparth NOBODY knows precisely WHERE markets will land. NOBODY knows WHY it will precisely land…...
Paul F. Desmond Lowry’s Reports Inc. 26 February 2002 Ask one hundred investors whether this is a bull market or a bear market, and you are likely to find their opinions…...
Within last weekend’s Research Report, the following was offered: “We are in unprecedented market waters and as such our flexibility as investors should remain elevated. Cash and Time; these are going to…...
I bought Alibaba when everyone was selling it. I knew about the headlines, the China-tech crackdowns, and the inherent risks of owning a Chinese ADR. I read all the warning signs, bought…...
Cross-asset Strategy: Investor sentiment is reaching extreme weakness, with the AAII bull-bear survey metric recording its lowest reading since early March 2009, just before the GFC trough. This, in combination with light…...
After a first quarter decline for the major averages, and during a midterm election year, it became clear that 2022 was going to be a struggle for investors. There was no guarantee…...
Bear markets start one of two ways, and we don’t think either cause is present currently. We call them the “wall” and the “wallop.” The wall refers to the proverbial wall of…...
With defensive stocks now expensive and offering little absolute upside, the S&P500 appears ready to join the ongoing bear market. Defensives can still outperform but it’s just a relative trade at this…...
A midterm election cycle and year 2 of a Presidential cycle with rising rates and potentially peak inflation have hijacked the bull market. This is not surprising and as such many an…...
The best hedges are cash and time, which work in tandem! The answer to fear of downside risk is not opening a NEW POSITION (hedge); there is simply no logic in such…...
A lot has been going on in markets – aggressive Fed talk scaring investors, runaway commodity prices, war in Europe, COVID reopening in some parts and closing in other parts of the…...
No Clear Path to Easier Financial Conditions Financial conditions are a key transmission mechanism for monetary policy and geopolitical shocks to effect the real economy and profits. Monetary policy tightening, for example,…...
Our goal as a trader is to push aside FOMO. Create a bubble for yourself, shut out the noise! Don’t look at other traders! Focus on what is important to your portfolio.…...
When stocks and bonds send mixed signals, we listen to stocks more attentively. The underlying message is clear: Stay Defensively oriented because growth is going to disappoint. 1Q was tough but even…...
A 3-week winning streak for equities came to an end for the S&P 500 (SPX) this past week. April is generally one of the best performing months of the year, but it’s…...
“I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have for a long, long time to people,” billionaire investor Warren Buffett said at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders meeting last May. If you would like to…...
Cross-asset Strategy: While the geopolitical crisis and policy tightening are overhangs, risk assets have a number of supports that include strong activity momentum pre-shock, supportive labor markets, an ending COVID headwind in…...
The equity markets are on a 3-week winning streak, which is hard to accept given the quarter still ended in the red. As we enter the last month of the “Best Six…...
WAR is stressing global supply chains, inflation rises yet the S&P 500 went RISK-ON over the last two weeks! Some are saying this is madness, a fake pump; stocks are divorced from…...
With the Fed’s hawkish pivot, the first part half of our long standing narrative of Fire and Ice has played out. However, the headwinds to growth from this policy shift, still historically…...
Midterm election years are difficult trading years, but reliably strong investing years, as they setup the compounding effect. More on this later in our weekly Research Report, but it’s a critical concept…...
“The market indexes may have bottomed, but keep in mind, making a low, forming a bottom and reaching the point when stocks are moving up in earnest are three different things. I’m…...
Macro Strategy—No Respite For The Weary: After two years of a pandemic, the world now has to deal with an escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Even assuming cooler heads prevail, and…...
Every time the market falls a little, we worry it’s going to fall a lot. ~Michael Batnick When it is time to buy, you won’t want to! ~Walter Deemer Seth remains on…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: As geopolitical risks intensified over the past month, our OWs in Commodities and Energy stocks outperformed, while other exposures, such as European stocks and Banks, underperformed. Looking ahead, we think…...
“Bear markets do not end until: 1) sellers have panicked; and 2) buyers are panicked to buy again.” ~The late, great Paul Desmond “There is a time to go long, time to…...
Powell made it clear the Fed will do whatever is necessary to maintain price stability which means tighter financial conditions even as risks to growth increase from oil price spike and pre-existing…...
This trading week was probably highly frustrating for a great many traders and investors alike. For anyone trying to trade this market actively, they better know what they are doing, and even…...
“When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping” is true for investors. Income-oriented investors have always been advised to think like a landlord, not a trader, reminding themselves that they shouldn’t…...
Under a framework of knowns and unknowns, the world is a confusing place right now with the Russian invasion taking center stage. Our attention remains focused on what we can analyze, especially…...
The market is testing investors and traders alike. That is what the market tends to do during corrections; it is normal to be concerned. The fact that corrections are normal, drawdowns are…...
The world is now forced into the calculating of a new reality, one that may not be easily compared in modern history and since World War II. That is the guiding premise…...
Fear and uncertainty building short-term but so many resolved near term In the first two months of 2022, a number of developments understandably rattled investor convictions and confidence around financial assets. One…...
This past trading week was met with more disappointment for the bulls, as a usually strong February monthly Options Expiration (OP/EX) week failed to achieve its trend since 1990 by delivering a…...
Part of successful investing is the ability to be able to forsake instant gratification and embrace delayed gratification! Not every trade will deliver an immediate profit, but every trade should be taken…...
With the focus on inflation and the Fed now an obsession, it’s time to pivot to growth and how much it will decelerate. We remain more concerned about growth than most and…...
Merrill Lynch: Macro Risk Macro Strategy—Risky Business (Cycle): We believe the probability of a recession this year is low and remain overweight Equities for now, but business cycle risk is rising for…...
“The S&P 500 has not bottomed in the months of January – May when it has finished the year in the RED on a total return basis since 1958. The S&P 500…...
We continue to be more focused on what growth is going to do rather than rates and believe investors are still too optimistic, particularly as it relates to consumption. Exacerbating that risk…...
While certain individual stocks demonstrated massive downside moves this past week, the indices managed a consecutive weekly gain. In 2021, investors are witnessing the turbulence of markets that hasn’t really been a…...
“At the bottom, stocks will be cheap and no one will care.” ~Bob Farrell “When it’s time to buy, you won’t want to!” ~Walter Deemer If you would like to watch the…...
Cross-asset Strategy: The equity market sell-off is overdone in our view, and we reiterate our call to buy the dip, particularly in cyclicals and small caps. Stocks are in bear market territory…...
“If falling 10% in stocks over a couple weeks is too much volatility for you, then being up 25% in 2021 is also too much. You can’t have one without the other.…...
“An investor’s job is not to avoid the pain but to endure it.” If you would like to watch the weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link.…...
With the Fed’s pivot now well understood and appreciated, investor attention now turns to growth which is slowing faster and more than expected. Defensives have been leading since mid-November, and that’s likely…...
It is not often that Finom Group is tasked with delivering a pessimistic interim outlook, but technicals are delivering signals that traders and investors shouldn’t ignore. Seth will walk us through some…...
“Buying on red days is where longterm profits begin! 90%+ of investors/traders are dedicated to finding problems in a market that goes higher ~75% of the time! Don’t get caught in the…...
Our new Fed forecast simply brings forward our call for lower equity valuations and raises the risk in the first half of the year. The median stock remains expensive even though the…...
Macro Strategy—Expansion and Profits Growth to Continue in 2022: Current Federal Reserve (Fed) projections and the leads and lags involved between changes in monetary policy and changes in economic conditions suggest policy…...
“Anyone can get lucky for a short period of time. But consistent outperformance over long periods is probably evidence of skill.” ~Bill Miller **Unfortunately, due to scheduling issues, we will not be…...
With all the attention on rate moves so far this year, investors may soon shift that focus to growth. Our focus will be on PMIs and earnings revisions to determine the eventual…...
After 3 consecutive years of double-digit returns for investors who stayed the course, through the ups and downs, downs and ups; 2022 is not starting off on the proverbial “good foot”. Then…...
“If you can’t pull the trigger on stocks here it may be because you’re focused on the next 3% when the better approach is to focus on the next 30%.” To watch…...
A new year brings new investment opportunities even if the narrative isn’t changing. We still recommend a large cap defensive bias given tightening financial conditions and decelerating growth. Round it out with…...
The way Technicians feel about Fundamentals is the way Quants feel about Technicians!! Know which discipline aligns mostly with your aptitude, but grow your knowledge for all investing disciplines!! The best investors…...
7 GENERAL PRINCIPLES: What is evidence-based research 1. Nothing new under the sun: Importance of looking at cycles 2. Equities junior in capital structure: Bonds lead stocks 3. Don’t shout at the…...
Macro Strategy—The U.S. trade-weighted dollar remains overvalued, much as we anticipated one year ago, and may well be able to maintain its balancing act over the next year. Consensus expectations remain timid,…...
Ease is a greater threat to progress than hardship ~ Denzel Washington If you want to view our weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Have a great…...
While expected, we think the Fed’s pivot to a more aggressive tapering schedule poses a larger risk for asset prices than most investors believe. Good news, supply is improving but will it…...
Key Metrics Earnings Growth: For Q4 2021, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 21.2%. If 21.2% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the…...
Look for further upside in 2022, the cycle is far from finished… the dip driven by new variant scare is unlikely to last… We believe there is further upside for stocks next…...
A new COVID variant started the ruckus for markets, but we view that as secondary to the real culprit—the Fed’s more aggressive response to the “on Fire” data. Lower valuations is our…...
Who needs a reset? Is it the S&P 500 (SPX), the forward price/earnings (P/E) multiple, the Nasdaq (COMPQ), the Russell 2000 (RUT), maybe all of the above. Since Black Friday, the markets…...
Spend 2 seconds on FinTwit and you’ll see why equities fell 5% in Sept, rose 10% in Oct and then fell 4% again. Overreacting in both directions is what equities do. Set…...
Macro Strategy—Businesses have responded to unprecedented U.S. consumer-demand strength and rising capacity utilization rates by bringing real equipment investment slightly above pre-pandemic levels as 2021 progressed, with strong investment plans for 2022,…...
This week, we provide feedback to our 2022 Outlook—spoiler alert—there wasn’t as much as usual. Meanwhile, consumers are opening up wallets for the holidays as our survey suggested a few weeks ago.…...
Since the S&P 500’s 8-day win streak ended on November 8th, I think we can say that the market has done two things: 1) Committed to the seasonal pattern 2) Gone nowhere…...
“Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you…...
With financial conditions tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indices looks unattractive at current prices. However, strong nominal GDP growth should continue to provide plenty of good…...
We’re back! It has been a couple of weeks since our last weekly Research Report, but we hope some time away from study and due diligence did not find investors worse for…...
Market participants can access data points; access is NOT the struggle. The struggle is in the SEQUENCING of data points Without the appropriate sequencing, the data loses its utility for an investor/trader,…...
The US equity market continues to ride the wave of liquidity and seasonal FOMO. As we approach our bull case of 4800, the risk/reward deteriorates, particularly with leverage high. The consumer looks…...
With just 2 months remaining in the 2021 trading year, investors are gearing up for the typical seasonal tailwinds, but also recognizing that markets are trading at all-time highs heading into a…...
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“The speculator fights his own good sense, struggles against his own will … and is at odds with his own decisions … There are many occasions in which every speculator seems to…...
Growth is slowing for both the economy and earnings and is unlikely to bottom until 1H2022. Meanwhile, earnings revisions breadth has deteriorated sharply over the past month, a leading indicator for NTM…...
Welcome back traders and investors. New highs, new highs and not quite new highs. What am I referring to? Well, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 (SPX) both made…...
“One-half of life is luck; the other half is discipline — and that’s the important half, for without discipline you wouldn’t know what to do with luck.” — Carl Zuckmayer If…...
Markets rallied again this past week, but finished on a high note unlike the previous week’s rally. The S&P 500 (SPX) was up 3 days in a row to end the week,…...
Patient, tactical, resourced, and disciplined investors are always rewarded! Manage those characteristics and you will “massage” your returns higher! ~Seth Golden If you wish to review the State of the Market video,…...
With the Fire portion of our Fire and Ice thesis playing out, we await the timing and magnitude of Ice as the determinant of when the mid-cycle transition will be over. We…...
Welcome back traders and investors! It is still a tricky, and muddled trading landscape. We have entered the 4th quarter of 2021 and the most volatile month of the calendar year for…...
Maintaining good disciplines during price consolidation periods: 1. Are the “yea buts” greater than a self-induced economic shutdown and bear market? 2. Are the “yea buts” likely to be remedied with time…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: As we indicated in a previous report, a combination of a strong recovery in demand, easy policy, financial flows, and a chronic underinvestment in supply (due to the prior low…...
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“In this business, if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.” -Peter Lynch If you would like to review…...
Markets to continue following the path of COVID recovery Cross-asset Strategy: Risk markets recovered from the technical sell-off, as we called for last week. COVID cases continue to decline (falling by ~28%…...
Scary prescient, scary! I’m referring to what our chief market strategist Seth Golden wrote in last week’s Research Report. While he often has a lot to say and writes with a great…...
“We have to acknowledge that overall breadth is weaker than it was during the biggest market drawdown during Q1 and to-date. Thus, the market has less overall support to resist downside should…...
The significant breadth strength of the 2020-2021 bull market has provided investors with a tremendous advance since the March 2020 lows. Breadth has proven so strong since the turn of the year…...
“I don’t think you can get to be a really good investor over a broad range without doing a massive amount of reading. I don’t think any one book will do it…...
Welcome back Finom Group traders and investors! Two weeks ago the markets struggled, but still managed to eek out some gains. The S&P 500 managed to produce a new all-time high for…...
Keep it simple and know your ABC’s of investing: Always, Buy, Corrections!! If you would like to watch the live State of the Market video, click the provided link! The S&P…...
Macro Strategy—Trends from around the world show supply chain bottlenecks have been holding back global growth to a degree not seen since at least the 1970s. Low inventories and high inflation pressures…...
The S&P 500 Index is up to a record 53 new all-time highs by the end August, topping the previous record from 1964. **To review the State of the Market video,…...
With the S&P 500 up more than 20% YTD, alpha has been harder to generate this year. Having the right narrative has helped. We see the mid cycle transition ending with a…...
“It’s easier to know what’s going to happen than when it’s going to happen” ~ Dan Rasmussen “Stop focusing on the when, focus on what you know, and plan for the inevitable”…...
Disappointing retail sales and consumer sentiment suggest the US consumer is fading. Most blame Delta but we think this is more about a payback in demand. We reiterate our defensive tilt and…...
That was some wild monthly Options Expiration week; was it not? While the S&P 500 (SPX) fell .60% on the week, it threatened a great deal more than that by mid-week. The…...
They say the trading hierarchy is 10% Technical analysis, 30% Risk Management and 60% Patience & Emotion management. If you lack patience, and can’t control and recognize your emotions, then you’ll likely…...
Following very strong 1H earnings, we raise our forecasts that leave us above consensus on 2021 but below on 2022 due to lower margins and higher taxes. With our view for further…...
Welcome back to Finom Group’s weekly Research Report, as we kick-off our 3-week reporting cycle. Two weeks ago, during our week off, markets continued to climb higher. The biggest achievement during the…...
“A strategy is NOT bound by or tethered to luck! Find a strategy that works for you, incorporates your risk tolerance and breeds repeatable profits. Until you do, luck may be playing…...
By Russell Rhoads As we approached August, market observers and commentators pointed to the danger that the months of August and September may hold for stocks. This line of thinking comes from…...
STRATEGY: July/August “chop” morphing into full Missouri (aka “show me state”) –> tilting us further into “risk-on” view –> multiple risk-on signs Wednesday sell-off was capitulation… The sell-off seen in markets Wednesday,…...
“Everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.” ~Peter Lynch To review the State of the Market weekly video, please click the following link. In…...
The mid-cycle transition de-rating is advanced but unfinished. Falling earnings revision breadth this fall will likely complete that process. We like a barbell of defensives (h/c and staples) and rate plays (financials)…...
Forty one! As of this past trading week, the S&P 500 has “clocked” 41 all-time highs (4,429) in 2021. The record for all time highs in a calendar year is 77, “clocked”…...
As a youth minister, I often find that much of what I’ve learned and preached can help us as investors/traders. What is the purpose of investing/trading, and do our plans meet the…...
Another week has passed and another week has proven the longstanding trend of dip buying activity. This has been the message from the market, during both broad advances in the S&P 500…...
The average length of the bear markets since WW II has been 16 months; the average length of the bull markets has been 5 years. This is the most compelling reason to…...
We remain constructive on equities and see the latest round of growth and slowdown fears premature and overblown. Even though equity leadership and bonds are trading as if the global economy is…...
The market appears ready to take on a more defensive character as we experience a meaningful deceleration in earnings and economic growth. Inventory builds are unlikely to offset if order books prove…...
Good weekend Finom Group members. In this week’s Research Report, I am going to be flying solo as our Vice President and chief market technician Edward Cordoba is recovering from his bout…...
“The difference between underperforming and outperforming often comes down to 2 simple variables: To review the weekly State of the Market video, please click the following link. In this week’s episode we…...
2021 has produced another year of above average returns for the major US indices. However, under the surface it has been far from easy to navigate. This is classic mid cycle transition…...
Good weekend Finom Group members! This weekend is our “off reporting” weekend, but as always, we desire to offer our members 3rd party macro-market analysis to consider going into each and every…...
“If you don’t profit from your investment mistakes, someone else will.” -Yale Hirsch Every trade demands a thesis, be it elementary or collegiate, rudimentary or sophisticated. A plan for a trade should…...
The following Alibaba fundamental research reporting is delivered via the team at Fundstrat: Summary While political risk has significantly eroded BABA’s share price, the recent actions by the CCP against the company,…...
From the pandemic lows on March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 is now up more than 96% and nearly doubled in just over 15 months. There are many who wish they could…...
In this week’s State of the Market we take a look at what the market may produce for the back half of 2021. The quantitative data expresses a good deal of positive…...
STRATEGY: Stick with Epicenter in 2H2021. Strong markets stay strong. US COVID-19 deaths are “unvaccinated” Americans COVID-19 cases could be rising, in part due to the spread of the more transmissible variants…...
This past trading week went exactly as investors/traders expected, after a ~2% pullback for the S&P 500 (SPX) the previous week. Sarcasm? Precisely! While many investors/traders and strategists anticipated a greater pullback…...
Investing takes time! When Jeff Bezos asked the 2nd richest man in the world… “Your investment thesis is so simple. You’re the second richest guy in the world, it’s so simple. Why…...
The Fed’s “surprise” move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for a tightening trend that began months ago. When combined with the peak rate…...
Welcome back Finom Group traders and investors. Although last weekend was our monthly off-reporting week, the market did not disappoint our expectations for potential drawdowns in the major indices. Quad or Triple…...
“Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little.”…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: Clients have asked about our conviction in the pro-cyclical trade given the recent decline in bond yields. In other words: “do bonds know something about macro fundamentals that equities and…...
The Fed is likely to start discussing the tapering path, and over the next few meetings potentially indicate the timing of its implementation. JPM’s view is that tapering will commence from…...
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You can know everything there is to know about markets, technicals, fundamentals and still be a poor investor/trader… why? Most, not some but most, market participants have a below average EQ (Emotional…...
Last week’s Payrolls numbers were modestly disappointing but wage growth is showing real signs of upside pressure. In short, inflation debate remains undecided and will likely stay that way for awhile longer.…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) deviated from a decade-long streak of underperformance during the Memorial Day trading week this past week. In previous reports, we had outlined the quantitative data surrounding the forward…...
Thank you for joining us on this journey through the markets in 2021. To review the latest State of the Market video, click the following link! The worst 6 months of the…...
Our discussions with clients are narrowing to two primary topics: Earnings and Inflation. On the former, we hear many saying earnings estimates are still too low. On the latter, the focus has…...
Welcome back! Every week, Seth and I discuss all the facets of the market and what are the factors impacting the market for our members’ benefit… long-term. From one week in the…...
Top 5 Reasons We Hear From Investors for Being/Becoming Bearish on Equities “Wake me up when these are bigger than $6.5trn fiscal stimulus, $120bn monthly Fed purchases and a YoY baseline economic…...
While there is some sympathy for our mid-cycle transition, most think it’s too early, or not worth acting on. There is also push back on our call for lower valuations and some…...
The past trading week almost mirrored what we saw 2 weeks ago when the S&P 500 (SPX) fell in the first 3 trading days of the week, but then rallied on Thursday…...
Mid-Cycle Brings More Risk than Reward We’re entering mid-cycle faster than normal. Rate of change on growth & policy has peaked, and valuation is falling. Taxes, tapering & transitions temper index returns.…...
“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” ~George Soros “Sometimes buying early on the way down…...
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The Mid-Cycle Transition Over the past month, we’ve taken a different path than most equity strategists. Rather than getting excited about the reopening, we are getting more concerned about (1) execution risk…...
After 3 full trading weeks, and an additional 3 trading days this past week, the S&P 500 (SPX) managed to add more gains to the already double-digit returns in 2021. The S&P…...
Some 90% of RIAs can’t analyze markets with any proficiency! Some 90% of analysts can’t advise clients in a manner that achieves even market performance! In other words: “Its easier to talk…...
Global Macro spotlight by Gary Schlossberg, Global strate We believe investors looking beyond this year’s expected economic boom can expect a shift to more moderate, sustainable growth plus steadier inflation and interest…...
Nailed it! That must be what Fundstrat strategist Tom Lee is thinking at the end of the trading week and the end of April Lee had previously called for the S&P 500…...
US Equity Strategy Market Update, Impact of Higher Corporate Tax and Infrastructure Spending Plan For the last twelve months, we have been aggressively pushing the upside case for equities (Market Update Mar’20).…...
At the end of the previous trading week, the S&P 500 (SPX) was enjoying its fourth-straight up week (its longest run since last August), its biggest 16-day return (+7.6%) since November, and…...
In this week’s State of the Market we review a couple of key breadth indicators that may help to differentiate the potential magnitude of future corrections/consolidations. Today’s headlines disrupted markets looking to…...
By David Kastner: Sector rotation is perhaps one of the best known and widely implemented investment strategies within equity portfolios. What is it and how does it work? Sector rotation is an active…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Market. In this week’s episode we take a look at robust and overheated breadth readings. Additionally, such conditions inform investors of the long-term trend and…...
Strategy Equity and credit markets continue to grind higher, undisturbed by the recent rise in bond yields or negative news about corporate taxation. The majority of investors appear to be focusing…...
Another week, another record high for the S&P 500 (SPX). This makes 20 record highs already in 2021. While it may seem as if the benchmark index has gone up in a…...
Thank you for joining us for this week’s State of the Market. My voice is back, to a greater degree at least! In this week’s SOTM we take a look at how…...
Weekly Warm-up: More on The Mid Cycle Transition to Quality; Staples over Discretionary Last week we argued for a faster transition to mid cycle dynamics which means it’s time to upgrade the…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) bottomed in March of 2009 at 666, the Devil’s Bottom as it has become known. As of this past week’s record closing high, the S&P 500 stands close…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. This week’s episode will hope to find a video recording, but presently I am without my voice. That may please some of you ;-). …...
A hotter but shorter economic cycle has implications for asset allocation as well as equity portfolio construction. In the near term, it means we are likely to move out of the early…...
Everyday I read The Chart Report. It’s a mixture of charts and thoughtful quotes for what I find to be “useful information”. And believe it or not, sometimes it’s not just relatable…...
No month-end equity selling but likely buying, what if ship breaks, Oil and CTAs Over the past few days, the equity market was fairly weak despite no real change in the macro…...
Cross-asset strategy: This week’s Fed reiteration that it won’t hike for about three years despite extraordinary fiscal stimulus is extending the repricing of risk premia across financial markets. For us, the…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode. In this week’s Episode we introduce Chris Dover and experience his systems-based…...
The derating of stocks is not over but may take a pause as stimulus boosts liquidity. Our cycle analysis strongly suggest PEs will fall this year as rates rise and earnings revisions…...
Stocks danced higher this past week to produce their best week since February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed above 32,000 for the first time while the S&P 500 (SPX) and…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we record live on Thursday and discussing the recent correction in the Nasdaq, what might bring about…...
Equity Strategy Market Update, Style Positioning − Where does the Momentum Unwind stand? The recent market volatility has been largely a function of a painful underlying market rotation out of high Momentum…...
Much of the trading week was once again driven by fear of inflation, rising bond yields and a continuation of the Technology sector/Nasdaq (COMPQ) underperformance. Wall Street was whipsawed in volatile trading…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we record live on Friday and during a wicked market correction in the Nasdaq. We update some…...
Cross-asset strategy: Higher rates was one of late 2020’s most-consensus views, but higher rate volatility was not. Hence, this week’s broad deleveraging across Equities, the EM complex and parts of Commodities…...
Welcome back to Finom Group’s weekly Research Report cycle (3 weeks on, 1 week off). Investors have muddled through the back half of February with markets trending lower and volatility trending higher…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we catch up on some of our market quantitative studies, rationalize the bond market sell-off that is…...
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Cross-asset strategy: Almost irrespective of macro tremors like the Texas energy shock, Bonds continue to telegraph confidence in the economy and skepticism of Fed guidance. That’s unsurprising given a Fed/fiscal experiment with…...
A strong US consumer setup at a time of economic reopening to unleash pent-up demand and drive growth. Our positive 2021 outlook was anchored on stronger and earlier-than-expected consumer recovery and pickup…...
Many believe that bond yields will not be able to move up much, partly as there is no sustained inflation, and partly as the economy is holding a lot of leverage. Further,…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we take a look at the best time to own stocks, fund flow strength, breadth strength and…...
When can the US achieve broad vaccination of its population: Using the current rate of daily vaccinations (red line, Exhibit 1), we simulated different scenarios that forecast potential vaccine uptake by YE21…...
The strong start to the year for risk assets was upended in the final week of January, as the rise of Reddit retail traders managed to produce outsized fear amongst the hedge…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we take a look at some breadth studies with respect to 3 of the major indices…...
Alpha over Beta. The wild price swings of the past month are a function of two things in our view: 1)excess leverage in the financial system and 2) the market contemplating the…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we deconstruct the January Barometer, look into just how expensive…...
Correction has arrived, positioning and leverage should do the rest. A combination of peaking rate of change in M1/M2and aggressive short squeezes has led to a significant degrossing by hedge funds. Markets…...
The ~3% drawdown in the S&P 500 this week took many by surprise. A key feature of this likely short-lived technical tumble was the accompanying small cap short squeeze, most likely initiated…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) did exact what everyone expected it to do this past trading week. If you believe that everyone had the same expectations and the expectations were exactly executed in…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we review the decline that was October and the potential…...
A question facing most investors today is the outlook for equities, and more broadly market risk. This ties into the outlook for the COVID-19 recovery, inflation and various technical parameters (such as…...
Does the Rotation Need a Vacation? The new leadership in small caps, cyclical stocks and commodities is well established at this point and definitive in its messaging, in our view – i.e.,economic…...
Finom Group’s official weekly Research Report will begin a new cycle (3 weeks on, 1 week off) on January 31, 2021. In the mean time, here are varied thoughts and analysis on…...
With ten trading sessions of the New Year complete, January and 2021 are off to a modest start. The Covid19 vaccine rollout has proven more difficult than previously forecast by governments, economists…...
Last Monday, in our January Chartbook, we suggested that the Georgia runoff could be a wildcard for the potential resumption of Value rotation. This would largely end the digestion of the big…...
The first week of a new year, and the markets continue to trend higher. We don’t know how long overbought conditions can last, but we know that should not be a priority…...
Wayne and Seth tackle the macro-market issues of the day as the New Year takes shape. Take some time to read the text from the weekly SOTM as our video did not…...
Markets Are Discounting Machines.Financial markets look ahead and discount what humans often can’t see or even imagine. 2020 may go down as one of the best examples on record of such vision.…...
We’re back, and we hope that everyone is prepared for another adventurous year in the markets. As we enter 2021, we shouldn’t forget the lessons of the past. With this in mind,…...
Please click the following link to be directed to our latest YouTube video where we discuss our concluding thoughts on the 2020 bull market. In order for drawdowns to not become realized…...
Don’t be late. Life often throws us curve balls and when it does,all we can do is adjust our swing. In this regard,2020 may go down as the year of the curve…...
OVERVIEW Following on our series that was produced this year called “The Book of Great,” which discussed 10 separate dynamics that developed in 2020, we believe 2021 represents a year of multiple…...
In this week’s video special report we discuss the environment surrounding the February-March 2020 bear market; the fastest bear market in history (17 days). Please click the following video link which discusses…...
12 month price momentum is a powerful driver of flows and performance. Over time, price momentum strategies aren’t mean reverting, one reason they are so popular. Over the past decade more strategies…...
As we wrap-up our third year of operations at Finom Group, we extend our gratitude to each and every member/participant. 2020 has been one of the more difficult years for our country,…...
Equities are facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains next year. After a prolonged period of elevated risks (global trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, US election uncertainty, etc.), the outlook is…...
Market and VolatilityCommentary Equity Macro and Quantitative Outlook for 2021 Our outlook for 2021 is positive for equities and more broadly for risky assets (see Global Asset Allocation). We expect markets to…...
Please click the following link to review our commentary on Sentiment, Leverage, Is it Early 2018 Again or…? What would you say is the most interesting finding in the historical data noted…...
There has been a punditry that has remained sidelined or angered by the markets’ surmising of the future, and with record-level stock prices over the last several months. Those who chose to…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s edition we take a look back at a strong November to gauge the probabilities for S&P 500 returns in…...
The equity market, for which we’ll use the S&P 500 (SPX) as our guide, will always maintain varying degrees of volatility. Volatility can be managed and absorbed by investors in a variety…...
Welcome back to our weekend Research Report and look inside all the macro-market driving forces for which we analyze the landscape alongside investors/traders. With only 4 trading weeks to go in 2020,…...
Investors are increasingly embracing the recovery. We laid out our bullish 12 month view in our 2021 Outlook (Show Me the Money!) and spent last week talking with investors around the globe.…...
Goldman Sachs chief political economist Alec Phillips Goldman Sachs now offers that it’s “base case” for the next fiscal relief package no longer anticipates a stimulus before 2021, resulting in a 50% cut…...
Show Me the Money! 2020 was all about beta and understanding how equity markets trade in and around a recession that handed us the fattest pitch we’ve seen in a decade. 2021…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) has surpassed its previous high among a global pandemic and an uncertain economy. The index is up almost 11% year-to-date, as investors anticipate more good news regarding a…...
The equity market is facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains in years. After a prolonged period of elevated risks (global trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, US election uncertainty, etc.), the…...
We remain committed bulls over next 6-12 months. When bull markets simultaneously begin with a new economic cycle, they typically last for years,not months or quarters. As such, we believe this bull…...
After a significant 1-week drawdown in the major averages 2 weeks ago, the market had an even greater resurgence this past trading week. The equity markets may have caught a great many…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we review the decline that was October and the potential…...
Correction right on schedule.2 weeks ago we called for a second 10% correction in as many months as we felt like investors were a bit too complacent on the uncertainty surrounding the…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s edition we dedicate time to the election cycle, historic data related to market…...
Pfizer has not yet accrued the32 COVID infections for its 1st interim analysis: The fact that Pfizer’s first interim has not been triggered suggests the participants enrolled in the trial may have…...
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Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we discuss the upcoming election and how markets might perform…...
Weekly Warm-up: ResistanceHolds; Earnings Upside vsMultiple for Stock Selection Last week’s failure to break through technical resistance for second time suggests the correction isn’t over. We expect softness into and past the…...
Stocks inched higher this past trading week, digesting a slew of updates that suggest the global and domestic economic recoveries may prove a long journey for those who choose to sail the…...
Cyclicals and small caps have gained more attention even as fiscal deal looks less likely because economic recovery has enough momentum to get past the election. Earnings and economic revisions support our…...
As one can see in the weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart below, the week started with significant upside stemming from the reality that headlines of POTUS and FLOTUS positive COVID-19 tests the…...
Equity markets are in the midst of a growth scare for reasons we think will ultimately be resolved by year end, an outcome that may lead to further adjustments in equity prices…...
Cross-asset strategy: President Trump’s COVID-19 test revelation has accelerated his deterioration in the polls and betting odds that began after the Sept 29th Presidential debate. The short-term impact on markets is negative…...
Equity markets started the trading week with a strong Monday performance, but from there it became a roller coaster ride for investors. Headlines gripped markets through the week, as debates and negotiations…...
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Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s episode, we look at the battle taking place within the major averages and…...
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Somewhere’s in the recess of my childhood memories I can now hear Count Dracula from Sesame Street saying, “1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks of declines ha ha ha!” And that’s what…...
To kick off the MS Global Healthcare Conference, onSeptember 14, Risinger and Harrison hosted former FDACommissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb to discuss COVID vaccines, antibodies, and FDA considerations. Dr. Gottlieb is reasonably confident…...
Corporate outlook continues to improve on stronger than expected economic and earnings recovery, constructive guidance, as well as positive balance sheet liquidity trends. Earnings recovery is ahead of expectation due to unprecedented…...
One could make the argument that this is one of the more predictable market pullbacks in recent memory. The major averages had all been expressing overbought and overheated conditions for over a…...
Weekly Warm Up: Big Drop Signals Changing Dynamics Last week’s decline was technical in nature but fundamentally triggered. We think there is more downside over next month but eventually leads to further…...
“The strong rise in equities from the March trough, coupled with bullish options positioning, makes a near-term setback likely. Goldman Sachs: 10 Reasons Why This Bull Market Has Further To Run...
After a 5-month long downtrend in market volatility and an exceptional rally off of the March lows, it has finally come to pass; the market has taken a breather… and it’s about…...
What is next for markets? Investors should position forrising odds of Trump re-election In March, we were the first to argue that the market will reach all-time highs (ATH) in 2021, and…...
Good Sunday to all Finom Group subscribers! This weekend is our 1 weekend of the month where we do not distribute our official weekly Research Report (3 weeks on, 1 week off).…...
Fed minutes disappoint with lack of inflation-targeting details or willingness to employ yield curve control. Meanwhile, the recovery is being challenged by a potential fiscal cliff, several universities deciding to move online…...
While markets continued to make new all-time highs this week, underlying breadth and momentum suggest caution in the near-term. There has never been, nor ever will be, anything wrong with taking a…...
We’ve made it through another topsy-turvy week in the equity markets relatively unscathed. There was a good deal of sideways action this past week, but all major averages still managed to add…...
IN THIS ISSUE • Macro Strategy—Housing activity and prices are currently picking up, supported by a convergence of cyclical, structural and behavioral forces. This is a positive backdrop for housing-related stocks and…...
If the S&P 500 (SPX) chose to chide the permabears and even poke those in hibernation, it might do so by taking a line from the Spaceballs movie when Lord Helmet offers,…...
In some regards, an incumbent seeking reelection fits well into NDR’s historical analysis wheelhouse. The last presidentto not run for reelection when he could have was Lyndon Johnson in 1968. The last…...
Big week for the S&P 500 (SPX), depending on which side of the fence you’re leaning of course! The path of least resistance, advancing higher, proved the path taken through mid-week and…...
The J.P. Morgan View Growth versus virus now, vaccine versus virus later —an update on a conflict and a hope Cross-asset strategy: The dominant macro narrative of the past several weeks hasn’t…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) flip flopped this week, but spent the last few days hovering around a 40-point range. The index closed Friday down just 0.19% YTD and is 4.77% below its…...
This past trading week, the markets continued to look beyond the rising COVID-19 infection rate and toward a future economic and societal recovery. The S&P 500 (SPX) made a concerted effort to…...
Biotechnology | North America COVID-19: Increasing ConvictionMultiple Vaccine Candidates WillHave Pivotal Data Before YE20 While a pre-election result is possible, we see early-to-mid November as our base case for PhIII data. Pfizer/BioNTech…...
US Equity Strategy Election Implications for Equities, Democrat AgendaWinners and Losers With US election only a few months away, one scenario that has been of growing interest among investors is a potential…...
Volatility Review Monetizing the convexity risk premium, US structuredproduct dynamics, Positioning update Implied convexity continues to exhibit very high levels of stress and lags the recovery in other risk premia. We recommend…...
2020 Mid-Year Outlook for Economies and Markets as the World Re-opens Summary and Replay of 2020 Mid-Year Outlook Virtual Meeting Global growth is set to rebound in 3Q on the easing of…...
Has the COVID-19 reemerging positive case ratio finally caught up to what many have described as a market that is overvalued, overheated and disconnected with “reality”? Whosever’s reality that might be? There…...
After retreating some 4.7% in the previous week, the S&P 500 (SPX) took back some of the consolidation. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.86%, but the week didn’t seem as…...
by Paul Christopher, CFA, Head of Global Market Strategy and Gary Schlossberg, Market Strategist Key takeaways We expect that the presidential and Senate races will be closely contested and decided, by voter…...
Just one week ago, the S&P 500 finished higher for the week by 4.9%, which seems a lifetime ago and after a tremendous decline on Thursday of this past trading week. On…...
Burgeoning ‘green shoots’ bring hope for an economic recovery The last time I used the term “green shoots” was the late spring and summer of 2009. Like everybody else, I was looking…...
The J.P. Morgan View Booming markets, disturbing protests and a collapsing dollar Cross-asset strategy: Risky markets are booming and the dollar collapsing as the global economy bottoms, high-frequency data releases beat expectations…...
This weekend is an off-reporting weekend, but we encourage our members to maintain a fluid understanding of the week-to-week market actions. With that being said we offer some light readings and charts…...
During the holiday shortened trading week, the excitement was already anticipated and proclaimed by the bulls with strong market breadth in the prior week. As such, when the markets opened for trading…...
Another choppy, headline-driven trading week. Fortunately the choppiness resolved itself to the upside and further erased the previous week’s losses. In the prior week, the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 2.26%, threatening to…...
After a 1-point move in the S&P 500 (SPX) Monday, things got a bit more interesting through the remainder of the trading week! The index is down 11.36% YTD and is 15.43%…...
US Equity Strategy: Equity Risk Premium, Market Multiple, Zero Rates, Liquidity Boom, Long Duration, Sustainable Income. The sharp ~30% recovery in S&P 500 from the Mar 23 trough, even as earnings expectations…...
IN THIS ISSUE • Macro Strategy—Alongside a sharp contraction in economic activity, the equity market has already seen a rally from the March bottom, has already recovered close to half of the…...
Over the last 2-3 weeks, Finom Group has outlined our market outlook during the bear market saga, by forecasting a period of consolidation. Consolidation is a phase within a phase of the…...
Market and Volatility Commentary COVID-19 forecasts – providing updates and modeling details Given the unprecedented heath crisis and resulting economic shock, our research focused on understanding the timeline of the pandemic. In…...
The world is an imperfect place! Remember that as an investor, engaged in an imperfect marketplace with imperfect systems, theories and analysis. Given this fact, and I think we can all agree…...
Market and Volatility Commentary S&P 500 back to highs? Quantifying Fed impact on the multiple; Sunshine – a factor in reducing COVID- 19 spread The COVID-19 pandemic trajectory and recovery is currently…...
Through the first 4 days of the trading week, the S&P 500 (SPX) managed to gain 10 points; that’s right, just 10 points in 4 trading sessions and with the VIX still…...
Market and Volatility Commentary: COVID-19 herd immunity and importance of regional datasets – Gangelt, Faroe, Iceland and UAE; Fed’s historic pivot. Mon Apr 13 2020 Understanding the extent of COVID-19 herd immunity,…...
On behalf of Finom Group, we want to wish everyone a happy and healthy holiday weekend. As mentioned in last weekend’s Research Report, this weekend would be an “off week” for our…...
Two factors may help mitigate further volatility. BY JURRIEN TIMMER, DIRECTOR OF GLOBAL MACRO FOR FIDELITY MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH COMPANY (FMRCO), FIDELITY Key takeaways The S&P 500 Index entered the week of April…...
US Equity Strategy Style Positioning, Value Squeeze, Winner Takes All Rising odds of a sharp Value squeeze in the near-term; however, medium- to long- term setup remains highly favorable for Large Cap,…...
After a strong relief rally, the S&P 500 (SPX) once again suffered from selling pressure and ended in the red for the week. The benchmark index fell 2.08% on the week and…...
On Tuesday the situation in Italy consolidated with growth in net active cases for Italy as a whole staying low at 3% (Monday 2%). Despite this we expect the recovery to strengthen…...
Over the weekend the COVID-19 situation improved all the EU5 countries. Not only did the growth in net active infection rate fall in all countries, but new cases at least stabilized across…...
The trading week in review kicked-off with more whimpering and selling pressure before rallying some 17% over the next 3 trading sessions. Unfortunately, the first trading day of the week was mirrored…...
Over the past few days, economists and strategists are coming out with forecasts for economic growth, earnings, and asset prices. These forecasts range wildly from 20, or 50% or 70% declines on…...
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For most investors and traders, last week was one of the worst weeks in market history that they experienced or at least the worst since 2008. When it was all said and…...
The equity market has been coping with the COVID-19 outbreak across developed markets for the last two weeks, forcing investors to guesstimate the impact to demand, supply chain disruptions and credit. The…...
The bounce back in markets this past week was quite telegraphed in the historical data we presented in the previous weekly Research Report. When it was all said and down, the S&P…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed a volatile, ugly week with a major correction and it’s largest since Q4 2018. The index is down 11.5% from last Friday, and down 8.56% year-to-date. It…...
If you were asked to do nothing as an investor for the week to come, could you do it? Sometimes the simplest and most appropriate measure to take is the most difficult…...
Since displacing the gains from January, which we believe is the best term to use, the S&P 500 (SPX) has more than recaptured those gains by closing out the 2nd trading week…...
Good Sunday to all of our Finom Group members. Due to this week’s engagement at The Money Show in Orlando, Florida, we are delivering the latest J.P. Morgan Research Report in leu…...
It’s a new year, and come Monday, a new month as a typical February month is found for little movement in the way of market returns on average. What may also come…...
The J.P. Morgan View Pandemics, climate change catastrophes and markets The J.P. Morgan View: Pandemics, climate change catastrophes and markets. Fri Jan 24 2020 Cross asset strategy: Markets had been vulnerable to…...
You see? It’s not all rainbows and unicorns in the markets as they say and last week wasn’t even a perfect example of the treachery that can beseech investors and traders. I’m…...
Flows & Liquidity: Are there similarities to January 2018?. Fri Jan 10 2020 A wide range of institutional investors appears to have raised their equity exposures markedly towards year end. This means…...
Let’s get this party started folks! If last week the market proved one thing it is this: Buying begets buying in the same way that selling begets selling. With many, if not…...
Eye on the Market Outlook 2020J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT Ghosts of Christmas Past. After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020…...
The first couple of trading days of the New Year proved a mixed bag as stocks roared higher on January 2nd and tumbled on January 3rd, after geopolitical tensions escalated between the…...
This article first appeared in Financial Times: Jennifer Ablan, Colby Smith, Richard Henderson in New York and Joe Rennison in London DECEMBER 31 2019 The U.S. equity and bond rally that everyone…...
Just 2 more trading days remain in 2019 and with that we are looking forward to the longest expansion cycle in U.S. history continuing… and to be accompanied by the continuation of…...
Athanasios P. Fassas 1 and Nikolas Hourvouliades 2,* 1. Department of Accounting and Finance, University of Thessaly, Larissa 41110, Greece 2. Department of Business Studies, American College of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 55535, Greece…...
IN THIS ISSUE Macro Strategy—A fundamental change in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) approach to achieving its inflation target means monetary policy is shifting from a headwind to a tailwind in 2020. The…...
The trading week that was ended in a manner that many may have not anticipated. As we read this week’s Research Report, we can’t help but to recall the setup for the…...
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Our view is that the market turmoil and economic slowdown over the past 18 months is not marking the end of the business cycle, but rather represents a reset similar…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) has been on a wild ride this past trading week and it remains a guesstimate as to how investors will anticipate a trading week that ends ahead of…...
ByMichael WursthornDec. 1, 2019 5:30 am ET The bears are circling retailers ahead of the holiday season. Short sellers have revived their bets against bricks-and-mortar retailers in recent weeks, taking their most…...
Good Sunday and as a reminder, our weekly Research Report issuance will begin again on December 9, 2019. This week’s State of the Markets video is being postponed until further notice, as…...
MARKETS AND INVESTING: November 22, 2019 Read the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam. Key Takeaways Plentiful Jobs Harvest Should Help Economy Trot On Low Turkey Prices Means More to Gobble…...
Good Sunday morning to all! I, Seth Golden, will be flying solo on this Research Reporting mission as our chief technical analyst Edward Cordoba and our chief operating officer Wayne Nelson are…...
Authored by Thompson Capital Management Recently Forgotten Recency bias. Source: NY Times In psychology, “recency bias” is the term that describes our tendency to use the recent past as the baseline for…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) has run fast, furious and unabated in it’s journey toward the 3,100 level. The benchmark index narrowly missed achieving this goal on Thursday of this past trading week.…...
And oh what a week it was… if you went into the week under the impression that new S&P 500 (SPX) record highs were within reach, you had the right expectation! At…...
Coming into the trading week that was, the S&P 500 (SPX) completed two up weeks in a row, and began the trading week with a surge above 3,000. This was an ideal…...
Entering the trading week, we were of the opinion that the rally in the major averages from the previous week would find a continuation of that rally. In looking at market breadth/internals…...
It looked as though markets were on the precipice of breaking down earlier in the trading week, and as headlines suggested that Chinese officials/delegates were inclined to cut their trip short in…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s episode we discuss October markets alongside the geopolitical heavyweight optionality that is whipsawing markets. A trade…...
If you enjoy roller coasters then you probably enjoyed the market action this past trading week. From peak to trough the S&P 500 (SPX) fell nearly 3% intra-week, before rebounding Thursday-Friday. The…...
Good Sunday morning to all! As mentioned throughout the week, due to the birth of my nephew, we will have to forgo our weekly Research Report. However, we are able to offer…...
At first glance, U.S. equities seem to be riding a bullish wave. The S&P 500 is up more than 20% in 2019, and the steady stream of IPOs for high-profile “unicorns” throughout…...
The market fell last week and snapped a 3-week win streak after the major indices danced around record highs. For much of the trading week, the market managed to go nowhere, until…...
This week, I had the pleasure of presenting our market outlook to clients at an event held at the Brookfield Zoo in Chicago, IL. As I journeyed through the park, I realized…...
That makes a 3-week winning streak for the major averages. The S&P 500 rose roughly 1% in the past trading week as investors eyed and achieved the all-important 3,000 level. As shown…...
Capital Market Outlook September 6, 2019 IN THIS ISSUE: • Macro Strategy—Central-bank easing and fiscal stimulus in a growing number of countries, together with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) pivot from a hawkish…...
That was the longest, short trading week I’ve ever experienced (Seth Golden taking the helm of this week’s reporting, so we may have a little fun along the way)! Maybe it was…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. Our emphasis in this week’s SOTM video concerns the S&P 500 breakout above 50-DMA, market drivers of the week,…...
Now that’s how you bounce back from a sharp decline in the previous week. And why did markets bounce back this past trading week; markets made it so. When it was all…...
Given the state of macro-affairs that are bleeding into the market outlook, this week’s Research Report will discuss the implications for investors going forward, and largely forgo subject matters related to fund…...
The trading week that was proved confounding for many with twists and turns throughout the trading week. When it was all said and done, however, the S&P 500 (SPX) finished lower by…...
If you had anticipated a wild week via the FOMC rate announcement and press conference, you would have been half right. The FOMC did cut rates by 25 bps, as many anticipated.…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) spent the week rising, shy of a hick-up during the ECB rate announcement, and ended Friday with another record high. The index closed up 1.65% from last Friday,…...
Even with better than expected earnings results from the big money center banks and early technology sector reporting, the major indices failed to make headway in the week that was. The S&P…...
Another record closing week for the major indices, with all 3 achieving new all-time highs. Additionally, the S&P 500 (SPX) closed above 3,000 for the week and with a .78% move higher…...
In the week that was, the S&P 500 (SPX) found itself another leg higher, capturing new record-level highs and nearly hitting the 3,000 level. This was something we had foreseen as being…...
A quick review from some of our notes in the prior weekly Research Report before we get started, if you please… “The most near-term risk to the market rally is the G-20…...
Coming into the trading week, binary risks were looming amidst a rather strong June rally. With the FOMC standing ready to deliver its message and rate path to the market, investors braced…...
I think the best way to describe the past trading week would be by using the word “funky”. NO, not like the Funky Cold Medina made so popular by Tone Loc way…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. In this week’s SOTM we discuss a vast variety of variables affecting the equity markets as they climb…...
Ahead of the opening bell on Friday, June 14, 2019, retail sales and industrial production data will be released. Analysts at Wells Fargo expect a 0.7% increase in retail sales headline. “Retail…...
Despite the constant news flow and tweets discussing tariffs on Mexican imports, the S&P 500 (SPX) and peer indices all rallied sharply this past week. The Dow (DJIA) jumped 4.7%, its biggest…...
There are now at least 4 key ingredients drawing upon investor fears and which have resulted in a May, month-long market downturn. The S&P 500 (SPX) finished down 2.6% from last week…...
In the past trading week, investors/traders were once again at the mercy of trade headlines. It was only 2 weeks ago that “the tweets seen round the world” sent global equities tumbling. …...
The fears of profound losses to the equity markets in the event that tariffs have been increased were overblown… or were they? We wouldn’t let the sharp intraday reversal off the lows…...
Well, that was much to do about nothing given the anticipation that came ahead of the trading week. When it was all said and done, the S&P 500 moved all of 5…...
Good morning fellow investors. This week’s Research Report will hit with greater brevity than you’ve seen with many of our Research Reports since we launched in December 2017. Also, it will be…...
1Q 2019 Market Letter The bull market that began in early March 2009 passed its 10th birthday last month, something no one expected when the S&P 500 bottomed at 666. The economic…...
For the S&P 500 (SPX) it proved to be the week that investors went to sleep, as the benchmark index logged a .08% drop in the holiday shortened trading week. S&P 500…...
One of the issues with suggesting that the S&P 500 (SPX) over reacted to a growth slowdown in Q4 2018, is that is merely a human assessment, something that has an increasingly…...
Did anything change during the trading week to reinforce our bullish outlook on both the economy and equity market for 2019? That’s the question we should all be considering, given the S&P…...
After a lackluster week for equities in the middle of the month and heading into the end of the quarter, last week equities found their footing once again and finished higher for…...
It’s not the way bulls desired the week to end, especially after a strong Thursday performance, but when algorithms kick into high gear, they generally work toward extremes. The S&P 500 (SPX)…...
There are two more trading weeks remaining in the Q1 2019 period. The S&P 500 (SPX) is up some 12.5% already this year and has managed to express this rally with net…...
Coming into the trading week, most every index and index ETF was expressing overbought conditions. With all the major indices falling greater than 2% to complete the trading week, indices and index…...
Leading up to the Friday trading session, the markets appeared to be expressing exhaustion and have been with overbought conditions for the better part of the last 10 trading sessions. Nonetheless, the…...
Volatility Review 19 February 2019 Equity Derivatives Strategy Bram Kaplan, CFA AC, Marko Kolanovic, PhD Positioning update, RTY and NDX structured product issuance & dynamics, trading commodity sectors Despite the remarkable…...
It’s not often that such a market rally, now nearly 2 months in the making, can frighten investors, but this particular rally has served to uncover some strange happenstance when we look…...
Why rising rates and a flatter curve signal a potential downturn: The U.S. economy has seen a prolonged period of growth without a recession. As the business cycle has matured, the U.S. yield curve has flattened substantially. We expect further flattening and…...
Market and Volatility Commentary V-Shaped Recovery, Low Positioning = More Upside, Commodity Sector Trades The V-shaped recovery and Positioning Global Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy Marko Kolanovic, PhD AC In early January we…...
When momentum develops, it can become a driving force greater than fundamentals and rational considerations. Such was the case for the market in Q4 2018 and with the S&P 500 (SPX) falling…...
It was a headline heavy week that drove the S&P 500 (SPX) absolutely… nowhere. In fact, after a strong start to the trading week, an a subsequent pullback in the middle of…...
This has been one heck of a market rally, but it comes on the heels of one heck of a market drop late in 2018. And that’s the context we have to…...
U.S. Equity Strategy: Buybacks to Remain Strong Amidst Uncertainty Buybacks have been a key theme through this cycle with S&P 500 companies returning ~$5 trillion to shareholders since 2009 and contributing ~2%…...
In the following video, Wayne Nelson discusses the Technology Select Spider ETF (XLK). He offers some technical analysis that may be bombarded with some near-term fundamental earnings headlines from the tech sector. …...
The trading week commenced with a degree of frenzied selling pressure on Tuesday and within the context of slowing global growth and geopolitical uncertainty. Highlighting fears of a slowing global economy was…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) and its peer indices have had quite the bullish move off of the Christmas Eve 2018 lows and finished the week with it’s strongest daily move of the…...
Narrative vs. Flows, Liquidity-Volatility-Flows Feedback Loop, QE/QT and Liquidity Narrative vs. Flows By Marko Kolanovic, PhD and Bram Kaplan, CFA Since our last note, the market continued moving higher from heavily oversold…...
We are off to a spectacular year in the markets with the S&P 500 (SPX) up roughly 3.5% since January 2nd… and that would be the bare naked truth if it weren’t…...
Posted on January 3, 2019 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT There’s a saying that market tops are a process and bottoms are an event. This is meant to imply that tops are formed…...
Languishing over the 2018 market won’t do investors any good, but it is important to reflect on what made for a rather unique investing/trading atmosphere. 2018 could easily be characterized as the…...
Market and Volatility Commentary December Post-Mortem, Signals from Fund Flows, Role of Systematic Flows and Reversion December Post-Mortem Over the past month, the confidence of equity investors virtually collapsed. The month of…...
U.S. equity markets demonstrated another remarkable turnaround on Wednesday as investors returned from the New Year holiday. At its lows the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was negative by nearly 400 points,…...
Good weekend to everyone and with the final trading day of calendar year 2018, we can’t help but desire the calendar year to end with some semblance of positivity. Last week kicked-off…...
J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Weekly Recap – Fri 12.21.18 Trading Desk Commentary; For Institutional Investors Talking Points for the Week • What happened this week – stocks sank…...
If you’re not hedged already, there is probably no better time than the present to start considering how to go about hedging your portfolio against risk. We’ll show you why, using simple…...
BofA Merrill Lynch 2019 Market Outlook: From Peak to Trough, the Market Unfriends Stocks and Bonds, Likes Volatility, and Swipes Right on Cash CATEGORIES Global Markets Merrill Lynch Print to PDFRSS Feed…...
After a really poor performance in October, the S&P 500 (SPX) rebounded in November. It may not have seemed like it rebounded given the mid-November retest of the October lows, but ultimately…...
In the week that was, we had a rare 2018 example of market inefficiency. For much of the year and at one point for 26 consecutive weeks, the S&P 500 (SPX) managed…...
Another roller coaster week in the markets has passed and with it dragging the major averages lower for the week. For the week, the Dow (DJIA) fell 2.2%, the S&P 500 (SPX)…...
This past week was yet another turbulent week for the major averages, but they managed there best week in over a month and since peaking in September. The S&P 500 (SPX) and…...
Let’s get right to the heart of the matter and as we look forward to the coming week, which should be an eventful one as it includes midterm elections. First up to…...
Despite what has now been a near 10% S&P 500 (SPX) correction from it’s all-time high set in September, the fear gauge isn’t representing market inefficiency or investor panic. Maybe the word…...
We were expecting a rather large move for the S&P 500 (SPX) last week and we sort of got it, but not to the degree or how it was expected to occur.…...
Midweek, the markets took a turn for the worse in what is rapidly correlating to the spookiest month of the year, October. Despite the strong gains on Friday, the Dow (DJIA) and…...
There is a great deal to discuss in this week’s research report, but we would be remised if we didn’t apologize for the mere fact that we won’t be able to cover…...
Although we haven’t quite hit the earnings season stride, usually marked by the financials reporting results, investors will roll into the start of the 4th Quarter this coming week with a focus…...
Welcome to our latest weekly research report where we’ll be discussing our usual topics surrounding the economy and financial markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 86.52 points to 26,743.50 on…...
Good Sunday morning to all Finom Group subscribers! This week’s research reporting is delivered to subscribers with an emphasis on monthly retail sales and the general dynamics surrounding our neutral risk rating…...
We’re going to take the lengthy edge of verbiage off of this week’s research report by focusing more narrowly on the S&P 500 (SPX) and volatility. The reason for this is mainly…...
Despite the noise surrounding global trade and correlated tariffs last week, the S&P 500 finished higher by nearly 1 percent. Additionally, the S&P 500 YTD gain stands at roughly 7.6 percent after…...
August is typically a lesser performing month for the S&P 500, only to be outdone by September. September is historically the worst performing month of the year for the stock market. August…...
The chart below identifies the S&P 500 (SPX) movement through the trading week that was. And it was quite the roller coaster trading week with wild swings up and down. The major…...
The S&P 500 (SPX) came within 9 points of reaching it’s all-time record high earlier in the trading week and before declining in the latter part of the week. As shown in…...
Posted on August 6, 2018 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT I’ve spent a great of time looking at and studying the volatility market. By no means am I the most knowledgeable on…...
Week in Review In the face of drum beating bears and prior tech sector meltdown quarterly reporting from FANG stocks, the 3 major averages have held together quite well in recent weeks.…...
Market and Volatility Commentary Upside for EM Equities and Value; Evolution of the Trade War; End of Cycle and Fiscal Measures Value Rally and EM Equities: 30 July 2018 Marko Kolanovic, PhD: Global…...
That was something for all the market pundits and critics to behold last week was it not? The mantra surrounding the disbelief in the market rally that started in late April has…...
It was a big “nothing burger” for investors in the equity markets last week, as by and large the major averages finished nearly flat on the week. For the week, the Dow…...
Barron’s: What’s the good word, if any, on the economy and the markets? Jeffrey Gundlach: We are more cautious about 2019 than about this year. We always start by asking whether a…...
Last week, the Q2 2018 reporting cycle kicked-off with some of the big banks reporting quarterly results. JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and PNC Financial reported results. JP Morgan’s report was quite strong,…...
What Makes A Great Investor? Posted on July 12, 2018 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT There are many ideas to what makes a “great” investor. Different qualities exemplify themselves in different market climates…...
Investor Sentiment This year has been a year unlike more recent and years whereby the markets trended steadily higher and were somewhat predictable. No, 2018 has been found with lesser investor confidence…...
In this week’s research report we are going to cover a few topics. The first topic centers on the all-too important economic data. The next topic will focus on the coming week’s…...
In the latest week, the Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P lost 0.7% and the Nasdaq fell 2 percent. For the month of June, the Dow rose 0.1% while the S&P added 1.1%…...
By Stuart Barton, CFA Following the events of Feb. 5th, several volatility-linked products have been delisted or deleveraged. We thought now was a good time to take a step back and survey…...
Divergence! A one-word sentence used appropriately to describe last week’s trading action where the Dow was significantly lower than its peer indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 119.19 points to 24,580.89 on Friday.…...
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun, 11, 2018 Crashes Matter A Lot In Part I – Buy and Hold can be Hazardous to your Wealth, we showed how the stock markets tend to cycle…...
In an investing world that is filled with various investment vehicles, strategies and practices, risk vs. reward usually plays a very critical role in how individual investors participate in the market. An…...
Are you a short-VOL/VIX trader? If so you probably know what it feels like to have your trading style/strategy heavily scrutinized and even demonized in the media and seemingly endlessly. It’s with…...
By Lance Roberts Part I: Buy and Hold Can Be Hazardous To Your Wealth One would think that following two major market corrections of over 50% within the last two decades, investors…...
Admittedly, that was a trading week not worth forgetting. More importantly, it was a trading week that was very concerning even as the S&P 500 finished higher by .49% for the week.…...
If you’re an investor or trader, you’ve probably heard the following words dozens of times: This time is different. While you may have heard these famous words, you may not know the…...
The major indexes posted slight weekly losses last week. The Dow and S&P 500 both fell 0.5% for the week, while the Nasdaq pulled back 0.7 percent. The move lower this week…...
It’s funny what a difference a week can make in the markets. Up until last week, the equity market picture looked rather bleak, with investor sentiment waning and record setting volatility. But…...
In the U.S. retail landscape, the strength seen this past holiday season continued into the first quarter of 2018. In fact, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are becoming more bullish on consumer…...
We want to begin this week’s research report with a quick look back at what some might argue was the most important economic data from last week, the Nonfarm Payroll report. The…...
Last week’s jam-packed earnings releases failed to excite investors even as most reporting companies beat analysts’ estimates. About half the S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter results during the busiest week of…...
The prior week for equity investors and the major averages was shaping up to be a strong week that is until the markets hit a wall. The latter trading days, Thursday and…...
For this week’s tech report, we focus on that shiny precious metal: gold. Ever since the post-recession high in October of 2011, prices have been on a steady decline stopping just above…...
Closing out the 1st week of earnings season found the major averages higher last week. In the wake of earnings results from Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Blackrock and JP Morgan Chase, however, investors…...
Words carry meaning! As an investor, when contemplating those words in the geopolitical and macro realm, deciphering words and verbiage can be critical to a portfolio’s performance. That statement will likely carry…...
Investors are hopeful that April proves a better month for equities than did March and after closing out a bearish quarter for the benchmark S&P 500. Through March, the Dow fell 3.7%,…...
Earlier this month, Target released its Q4 2017 results alongside 2018 guidance. The release brought with it selling pressure on the stock, which has yet to recover and as the broader market…...
Long-term investing is largely about corporate earnings, sales and the ability of a corporation to deliver a reasonable return on invested capital to its respective shareholder base. Sometimes, however, investors do need…...
As the recovery from the 2018 correction continues, we evaluate price action through visual charts to determine what moves are likely in the coming days. As it stands, we remain in a…...
That was a pretty bullish end to an otherwise fear littered week that centered on two major points of interest, trade tariffs that could possibly lead to a trade war and the…...
After a rather rocky road traveled in the first half of 2017, J.C. Penney sales results improved dramatically in the latter parts of the calendar year. J.C. Penny, a retailer gone awry…...
This week is likely to prove a considerably important week as equity markets have gyrated back and forth throughout February and through the first couple of trading days in March. Stability in…...
On February 27, 2018, Macy’s reported its Q4 2017 and FY17 results. With some retailers and especially Macy’s, following the numbers for the 4th quarter can be cumbersome, as they had offered…...
Despite the recent level setting of market expectations and more recent equilibrium found in the major indices, I wouldn’t sound the “all clear” bells just yet. After bouncing off of key levels…...
As we come into the final trading days of February, we’ve had some pretty technically responsive price action as stocks continue to recover from the correction that took place earlier this month.…...
In light of declining volatility – the VIX index and its term structure started to normalize Wednesday – where could this market head and what type of hedges are of the best…...
After an outside reversal trading day last Friday that found the Nasdaq going from up 1% to negative .23% and the Dow and S&P 500 basically flat for the day, index futures…...
Last week we took a look at the price action of the S&P 500 after a very volatile week. We suggested that given particular technical indicators, price would at least come to…...
Last week was a measured action against extremes. The downturn in U.S. equities last week ended a streak of 404 trading days without a 5% pullback in stock prices from the previous…...
SPX 500, CFD (Daily Candles) As we enter the corrective phase of the market moves, we seek the guidance of technical analysis to provide us with some insight on possible market moves…...
The Grand Market Sell-Off: Is that what we’ll be calling the pullback in the indexes in the coming weeks? Most obviously it remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure…this…...
Starbucks is set to report its Q1 2018 results after the closing bell on January 25, 2018 and to much consternation that finds shareholders hoping for a positive outcome. The share price…...
While the U.S. Government is shutdown, corporate earnings will still continue to roll in as the tech sector begins reporting this week. Later in this report, we will discuss one of the…...
What a week it was for the major averages. The meteoric rise would almost have to find perma-bears and “top callers” in dismay had they not left long positions in play until…...
Models are useful. They help us understand the world around us and aid us in predicting what will happen next. But it’s important to remember that models don’t necessarily reflect the underlying…...
Today, as part of the Golden Capital Portfolio holdings update, I will be adjusting capital exposure minimally with iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) and/or ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY). Given…...
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions by David Aurelio Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.9% from Q3 2016. Excluding the Energy sector, the earnings growth estimate declines to 9.4%. Of the 500 companies…...
There is nothing wrong with unbridled enthusiasm when it’s correlated to the appropriate level of rationale. That’s the premise of the equity markets it would seem over the last several months and…...
For volatility ETP (exchange-traded product) traders, there are a range of products from which to choose. Some are relatively illiquid (an example would be VMAX), while others have sufficient daily volume to…...
