RESEARCH REPORTS

The negative consequences of fiscal policy have been seeping into the macroeconomic data for several months and since Liberation Day. While tax legislation (OBBBA) is set to provide a tailwind for economic…...

Just two weeks prior, with headlines still concentrated on all-things White House Administration related and ahead of the Jackson Hole Summit, we remained confident in suggesting higher prices remained for the major…...

As the landscape of global trade and economic policy evolves, the interplay between artificial intelligence, tariff rates, and Federal Reserve decisions presents both challenges and opportunities for investors navigating this complex environment.

The long since herald and feared tariff inflation impact has arrived, and will more than likely take center stage in upcoming monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports,…...

You just can’t keep a good bull market down! Welcome back to this weekend’s macro-market Research Report and with the S&P 500 (SPX) ever so narrowly missing the achievement of its 16th…...

During our off-reporting weekend, we encourage Finom Group investors/traders to consider some of our chronicled analysis as well as 3rd-Party Research offerings outlined. Markets finally had their -1%+ down day after a…...

It’s on everyone’s mind and what everyone is seemingly anticipating at this point in the year, given the extended market rally. “When will the pullback come and how big will it be?”…...

Let’s not be in the business of looking a “gift-horse in the mouth”, so to speak. The market continues to outperform the expectations of the masses, failing to generate any meaningful or…...

During this weekend’s off-reporting cycle, please consider the disseminations from around Wall Street and certain of our updates regarding the technical picture. I (Seth Golden) am back from vacation and look forward…...

Welcome back to the Finom Group macro-market Research Report and a happy 4th of July weekend to everyone! Investors are within one of the best market return periods of the calendar year,…...

On behalf of Finom Group, we are wishing everyone a joyous and safe 4th of July extended weekend! Please take some time to consider this week’s compilation of 3rd-Party Research and be…...

Not a prediction, but rather RECOGNITION! Our framework for the future is recognizing the probabilities, predicated on history. When we consider an S&P 500 price target objective for any given year or…...

Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders. On our off-reporting weekend, please consider browsing the Wells Fargo 2025 Mid-Year Outlook amongst other analysts and strategists considerations as the first half of 2025 completes in…...

Ahead of today’s FOMC rate announcement, press conference with Fed chairman Jerome Powell, and the markets’ closure Thursday to celebrate Juneteenth, please take some time to consider our 3rd-Party Research as part…...

The year 2025 is shaping up to be an event-packed year, with the installation of a new U.S. president endogenously disrupting the global trade structure, and as of this past week, an…...

Whether or not you believed the S&P 500 (SPX) could or would get back to 6,000 this quickly and after plunging below 5,000 in April doesn’t matter. What matters is that you…...

Good weekend to all! During our off-reporting weekend, please take some time to read through the latest report from Morgan Stanley regarding drawdowns and recoveries; not all drawdowns or company stocks are…...

A couple of weeks ago, we took exception with those market participants whom downplayed the 6-week long rally from the market lows in early April. As the month of April found markets…...

For many investors/traders, 2025 will be found for a great deal of regret and “should haves.” Through the Finom Group weekly macro-market Research Reports, I have been pounding the proverbial table regarding…...

Welcome back to this weekend’s macro-market reporting. During our off-reporting week, please read through our macro-economic update and 3rd-party research and analytics. Happy Mother’s Day to all! Before jumping into these insights,…...

Lennart Heim is the Compute Team Lead at RAND’s Technology and Security Policy Center and a Professor of Policy Analysis at RAND School of Public Policy. China will likely match U.S. AI model capabilities this…...

Although the stock market has rallied remarkably since the April 8th low, there will remain a very unhealthy amount of market participants from all walks of life that will remain paralyzed by…...

The impact on real GDP from Trump’s tariffs will depend crucially on whether (and how quickly) the customs duties raised are recycled back into the economy as new tax cuts. We assume…...

Nobody said 2025 was going to be easy? Well, maybe the Wall Street strategists implied so with their median S&P 500 (SPX) forecast of 6,500. Either way, keep your seatbelt buckled, arms…...

Happy Holidays to all Finom Group members, and welcome to this weekend’s 3rd Party Research Compilation. During our off-reporting weekend, please consider the following Analytics from in and around Wall Street, inclusive…...

Only 1 quarter and 8-trading days into 2025, only about 60 days into the new Trump-led White House administration, and what a ride it has been already. If we hadn’t suggested strapping…...

A troubling macro-market landscape, gripped by an endogenous force-factor has been at play since February. The label of this endogeny is now undeniably “Trump Tariffs”, as the immediate reaction to President Trump’s…...

Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders. As this is our off-reporting weekend, please consider the abundance of thoughts, outlooks and analysis offered in our 3rd-Party Research within this weekend’s publication. In addition, we…...

The Major Trend Index held at a bearish reading of -3 for the week ended March 21st. The net scores in the four factor categories were also unchanged; revisions within the Cyclical…...

Well, we have our answer to last week’s question of the week! “So just how powerful is the current endogeny at play?…”While this quant is related to one of the most powerful…...

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The headlines have been exhausting through the Q1 2025 period, whipsawing investors and traders through wild market swings. The whipsawing has been greater to the downside, and completing an unsavory feat of…...

The 5% Canary  By Andrew Thrasher, CMT  2023 Charles H. Dow Award Winner   ...

Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders!! During our off-reporting weekend, please allow some time to read through our macro-market Research Notes and 3rd Party Research Offering from around Wall Street. We’ll…...

Whether the title is Lift Off… Not Quite: No Mojo Markets or Year 3 of the Ugly Bull Market, the price action is clearly forecasted by these titles of our previous macro-market Research…...

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Nobody likes being right about the bad things, but often there is still a good longer-term outcome to recognize from the analysis. Inside our weekly macro-market Research Report titled Year 3 of…...

Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders. During our off-reporting weekend (2 weeks on, 1-week off), please consider our Research Notes and 3rd-party Research as part of your weekly due diligence process.…...

So far – so weird, but to-be-expected. One month and 1-week into the New Year and it’s already beginning to look a lot like active portfolio management is going to win out…...

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So much of what we do at Finom Group is simply preparation, playing Chess, thinking some 10-steps ahead. Are we always successful in this task; no, but this is the task and…...

The Rise of DeepSeek: What the Headlines Miss Lennart Heim and Sihao Huang Recent coverage of DeepSeek’s AI models has focused heavily on their impressive benchmark performance and efficiency gains. While these…...

Good Sunday Finom Group members, from around the world. During our off-reporting weekend (2 weeks on, 1-week off) this weekend, we ask that you consider the following notes/updates from our chief equity…...

Good Wednesday morning investors and traders! As a reminder, this is our Finom Group off-reporting weekend (2 weekends on, 1 weekend off). With that in mind, I encourage investors/traders to consider the…...

We are going to commence this weekend's macro-market Research Report by stating something that should be obvious, but based on this past week's market rally some may be overlooking: "The markets are still within a consolidation/pullback phase."

Good Wednesday morning investors and traders! Ahead of the official release of the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index for the month of December showed a slower rate of change in…...

Only 2-trading weeks into the calendar year and things have become a whole lot tougher for investors. I will (Seth Golden) be flying solo this weekend, so kindly forgive any grammatical or…...

Good Wednesday morning Finom Group investors and traders! Please consider the following mash-up of 3rd-party Research ahead of this Sunday’s forthcoming Finom Group macro-market Research Report. As always, while we do not…...

Well, it has not been the ideal end or start to calendar years, but somewhat to-be-expected and in accordance with the Finom Group 2025 Outlook. Additionally, the potential bounce we had outlined…...

There are only 2-trading days left in calendar year 2024, and the S&P 500 finished this past week down -1% for the month of December and is now down during the ongoing…...

Merry Christmas🎄  investors/traders from around the globe 🌏 There are only 4-trading days left in 2024, 1 of which is a holiday shortened trading session. The markets had a bit of a…...

Good Sunday investors/traders from around the globe 🌏 There are only 6-trading days left in 2024, two of which are holiday shortened trading sessions. The markets had a bit of a setback…...

With today’s publication, we take a look at some market internals/breadth in order to recognize that while Tech/Growth/QQQs have seen a 2-week long rally or catch-up trade, it has come at the…...

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Good Saturday morning Finom Group members! As I (Seth Golden) remain on vacation through December, keep in mind that our 3rd-party “mash-up”, weekly Research Reports will continue until the New Year. If…...

Good Wednesday morning Finom Group investors/traders! As we welcome newer members at this time of year, please consider that our chief equity strategist Seth Golden is on vacation during the month of…...

Good Sunday morning Finom Group members! As I (Seth Golden) remain on vacation through December, keep in mind that our 3rd-party “mash-up”, weekly Research Reports will continue. If you haven’t already viewed…...

Welcome to one of 2 videos we will be offering in the month of December 2024. We encourage Finom Group members to stay appraised of the year-end trends and the Finom Group…...

Good weekend investors/traders and happy holidays. As I embark upon my December vacation, please stay connected to our weekly 3rd-Party Research publications, and Finom Group macro-market updates. As always, our last proprietary…...

The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended November 22nd, and its four factor categories held steady at their recent…...

Good morning Finom Group investors/traders. As you traverse the year-end macro-market landscape of developments into 2025, please consider our 3rd-party Research as part of your weekly regiment of due diligence. We will…...

2024 is in its home stretch, with investor and market participants from all walks of life along for the ride. With that, welcome back Finom Group investors/traders! We certainly hope your 2024…...

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Good weekend all! Please take some time to review the thoughts and ideas concerning the macro-market landscape since the 2024 Election and around Wall Street. Additionally, we have update some of our…...

Capital Economics We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These…...

Good weekend all! During our off-reporting weekend, please consider our 3rd-party Research compilation from around Wall Street. Our final macro-market Research Report of 2024 will be delivered on November 24, 2024, and…...

The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 for the week ended November 1st. The Sentiment factors moved up a notch to -3, while…...

Back in the 1980s, Dr. Ed Yardeni popularized the phrasing that concerned an investor population, which was believed to be working to “fight the Federal Reserve.” He coined the phrase bond vigilanteism.…...

Markets: Job openings fell in September according to the latest JOLTS report out today, while our “Take this job and shove it indicator” also declined. Even still, as much as the US…...

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Welcome back to the Finom Group weekend macro-market Research Report! As a heads-up, I (Seth Golden) will be flying solo this weekend as Edward Cordoba is fine tuning the official Quantitative Analysis…...

The famine in small cap performance that has seen relative returns wither and fade is now in its seventh year, and investors are wondering if the Fed’s easing cycle will finally be…...

Recall that coming into the month of September, the S&P 500 was on a 4-month positive return winning streak. Historically, this kind of bullish trend is very good both in the interim…...

Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders! This is our “off-reporting” weekend. Please take some time to read our 3rd Party research, which includes analysis from The Leuthold Group, Fundstrat, and Merrill…...

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“Good to know” does not mean what we know is altogether practical. Welcome back investors and traders, to more all-time highs and to our weekly Research Report. Furthermore, welcome to 5,800+. During…...

by Jim Paulsen,   The Tush Push has become a popular play among both NFL and college football teams.  Put a few beefy linemen right behind your quarterback and run a QB…...

  Yardeni Research US Economy I: Permabulls Versus Permabears. Some of our best friends are permabears. They are smart economists and strategists who tend to be bearish. We look to them for…...

Welcome back to our Finom Group macro-market Research Report! September and the Q3 2024 period ended on a high note 🎶 . I don’t have much to lend to this weekend’s conversation,…...

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Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders! While this is our off-reporting weekend, and we’ll be back at it again next weekend with our proprietary macro-market Research Report, please read through some of the…...

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My wife’s great grandmother died this year aged 100. Ida Beckett, this is your life (in US stock returns): Figure 1: S&P price returns over last 100 years1 Source: Bloomberg, Man Group…...

The first rate cut is out of the way, but most were denying the majority probability spelling out a 50bps cut for the first rate cut of the easing cycle. While the…...

  The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index continues to oscillate within its neutral zone. There have been no changes to our tactical portfolios since the small equity reductions of July 19th…...

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Hindsight is 20/20, as they say, but regret is front of mind and stickier than even inflation proposes. When we miss opportunities to benefit/gain from market rebounds and rallies, more often than…...

This coming week is important, given the Presidential debate on Tuesday evening (9pm ET). And as we look ahead, we think it is important to keep in mind there are many reasons…...

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: The August jobs report came in at +142k (vs Street +165k) and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3% last month (inline). To us, this is an ideal…...

If you would like to watch this week’s video blog, please feel free to click the provided link! Have a great week and we’ll be reopening the Trading Room next Monday with…...

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Sarcastically speaking, it’s a bit humorous how the recession vibes from early August have almost disappeared by the end of the month. That’s how all of this works, in case you didn’t…...

The Major Trend Index remained at a Neutral reading of zero in the week ended August 23rd. The MTI had been on the cusp of bear territory between August 2nd and August…...

Welcome Finom Group investors and traders! During our off-reporting weekend, we offer the latest insights and analysis from Wall Street alongside our latest thoughts on the macro-market landscape. As an aside, our…...

This coming week is the most important week for August 2024 because of the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Powell speaks on August 23rd (Friday). Last week on 8/13, we noted…...

Goldman Sachs Weekly Market Mashup    Goldman Sachs’ Scott Rubner Nvidia Outlook...

If there has been a lesson from the markets over the last several weeks and since the mid-July all-time highs, it’s that investors and traders never want to find themselves overreacting to……...

Well, it definitely got worse before it got better, or got flat for the week. This was largely our expectation for the week-that-was, and as the week kicked into high gear with…...

J.P. Morgan’s Mike Ferolli Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Bank Of America’s Savita Subramanian...

Some macroeconomic storm clouds are brewing. Markets are fleeing for shelter in Treasuries, leaving behind almost everything else, including their prized LargeCap tech stocks and recently acquired SMidCaps. Here’s the market action…...

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The Major Trend Index held at a Neutral reading for the week ended July 26th. A second consecutive weekly decline in the S&P 500 failed to knock down our Technical composite from…...

Another difficult week for the large-cap indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ), which both fell for a second consecutive week. The S&P 500 declined roughly -.8% while the…...

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If it’s been said once it has been said millions of times, “everyone would be a buyer if stocks were cheaper, but when stocks are cheaper they simply lose buying confidence.”  With…...

by Tom Lee The major event over the weekend is the failed assassination attempt against former President Trump. This is a huge blessing that the assassin did not succeed. Data from betting…...

Please take some time to read this weekend’s 3rd party Research from DataTrek, Merrill Lynch and Fundstrat. We will restart our usual monthly reporting regime in the coming week.  DataTrek’s Nicolaus Colas…...

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Scott Rubner, Managing Director Goldman Sachs This is the last bullish US Equity email that I will be sending out for now, as the last standing bears have capitulated and everyone is…...

Many investors have become quite frustrated by the stock markets’ performance relative to their own portfolio performance. 2024 is one of those years whereby most stocks are underperforming the indices themselves, and…...

Macro Strategy—European Equity Risks Increase, Caution Still Warranted: Last month’s European Union (EU) parliamentary elections have marked a turning point in relative performance between European and U.S. equity markets. European Equities had…...

 Macro Strategy—Soft Landing in Progress?: U.S. economic growth remains sturdy, and favorable recent inflation dynamics give the Federal Reserve (Fed) room to bring inflation closer to its 2% target without much damage…...

Although the S&P 500 (SPX) would achieve a new, intraday all-time high this past week (Friday), it would fail to sustain a new all-time high on a closing basis. With all the…...

S&P 500 and QQQ both showed minor weakness late this week, yet failed to do much technical damage.  Both SPY and QQQ finished positive on the week, and while there was brief…...

The Leuthold Group: Not Normal The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a Neutral reading of zero for the week ended June 21st, following its downgrade from High Neutral the previous week.…...

We’ve often said at Finom Group, “When the market doesn’t produce the higher probability outcome.” And that probability is in the 90 – 100%ile range… pay closer attention to what the market…...

Small Cap investing remains an exercise in futility, with the Russell 2000 already trailing the S&P 500 by more than 10% through early June. Even Technology stocks can’t escape the curse: The…...

Did The Fed Already Pull It Off To watch our State of the Market Heading Into 2H 2024 video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week team and be…...

Two-Hundred Years of Market Concentration in the United States Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data Investors have noticed the increasing concentration of companies at the top of the stock market…...

Good weekend to all Finom Group members! During our off-reporting weekend, please find the following reporting from RBC Capital and Fundstrat with outlooks for the economy and markets below. This coming week…...

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Throughout this bull market, stock investors have bemoaned an incessant lack of breadth.  Leadership has been remarkably narrow.  The S&P 500 index has persistently dominated the overall stock market and a small…...

They have been proclaiming a slowing labor and employment market for weeks, if not months. Has the Unemployment Rate (UR) risen? Yes! What they don’t emphasize, however, is the abnormally sustained low…...

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Who could have predicted 🔮 this past Friday’s intraday price action and how the day ultimately concluded? Well, calling for market volatility isn’t really a call. Nonetheless, here is a reminder of…...

Wall Street colloquialisms are rarely justified by data or proven a valid consideration. “Sell in May and Go Away” is mostly a correction/pullback warning. Since 2000, here are the corrections/pullbacks per year,…...

Merrill Lynch: IN THIS ISSUE  Macro Strategy—Is Stagflation Likely?: With inflation stubbornly high after briefly surpassing levels not seen in 40 years, the term “stagflation” has been resurrected as a risk for…...

The Major Trend Index remained at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended May 17th. While the MTI graphic shown remains imbalanced, the “net weight” of all the evidence…...

Nothing moves sentiment more than price! You’ve probably heard that phrasing before? The phrasing basically suggests that despite all the variables at play for any given time period, whatever price is doing…...

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Welcome back Finom Group investors and traders! A 3-week decline and then a 3-week rally; what does it mean? From a big picture 🏞 perspective it means a lot of chop and…...

Public Service Announcement: Watch The VIDEO HERE! Bear markets happen, on average, once every 4.1 years. There have been 3 bear markets in the last 5.5 years. Going out on a limb…...

Dr. Ed Yardeni Go figure: Stocks & bonds sold off on Tuesday following a hotter-than-expected Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI). It was up 5.4% q/q (saar) and 4.1% y/y. Today, they both…...

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Welcome back ladies and gentlemen! This weekend’s Research Report will be abbreviated, as we maintain our outlook for 2024, supported by the completion of the Q1 2024 economic data releases. The S&P…...

Try telling an investor that April is typically one of the absolute best months of the year for market returns after the first 3 trading weeks of April 2024. You might get…...

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Good weekend to all ‼️ This weekend is our off-reporting weekend but we continue to deliver market insights, analysis, and 3rd-party Research to support your investing and educational needs! So let’s get…...

After last week’s inflation and jobs reports, the debate rages on about what the Fed will do with interest rates.  By week’s end, several economic reports suggesting healthy economic growth, widespread media…...

Last week was “stress test” of sorts for equity markets. The combination of “hot” ISM, coupled with Fed members (Kashkari) speaking of no cuts (even hikes) in 2024 and the very “hot”…...

It was a strange week in the markets. Bears and Bulls made little progress, but bears are seemingly more and more anxious about the state of the market. I’ve seen a lot…...

Are private sector balance sheets, income & profits, liquidity, and pessimism simply too strong to have a recession? By Jim Paulsen Recession risk is weighed in several ways.   Are the resources available…...

As we construct this weekend’s macro-market Research Report, the February Personal Income & Expenditures (PCE) data has been released. No real surprises in the data, although the M/M headline PCE was slightly…...

As a reminder, this is Finom Group’s off-reporting weekend, however we continue to disseminate relevant and trusted 3rd-party research by the former chief equity strategist of The Leuthold Group, Jim Paulsen. We’ll…...

If there is 1-thing I’ve learned from the markets over my 24 years, it’s that down is going to happen; accept it for value opportunity. Don’t try to stop it! Down is…...

While the Nvidia hype would make you believe the company owns and drives the entire AI narrative, investors would do well to realize how early we are in the AI monetization cycle.…...

That’s a newer development for the market rally, down 2 consecutive weeks. Whether or not this detraction from the bullish trend morphs into a truer corrective wave, akin to the corrective Summer/Fall…...

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To suggest that the rally off of the October 27, 2023 low has been impressive probably does not do the rally enough justice. The S&P 500 (SPX) benchmark index is now up…...

The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended March 1st. Bullish narratives surrounding AI adoption and “stealth” liquidity injections from the U.S. Treasury…...

Good weekend Finom Group traders/investors! While this is our off-reporting weekend (no proprietary Research Report), we aim to deliver ongoing insights, analysis, charts, and data to consider as we head into March…...

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As the rally has rolled onward and upward, not everyone will achieve markedly satisfying results. Essentially, there will be investors and fund managers with all different strategies and risk allocations that will…...

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Welcome back to this weekend’s Research Report! This weekend’s Report is in PDF format due to issues the Host was having with a new, upgraded server that did not make it possible to upload…...

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If there is 1 thing I’ve learned from the markets over my 23 years, it’s that down is going to happen; accept it for value opportunity. Don’t try to stop it! Down…...

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Based solely on calendar patterns, January’s S&P 500 gain is a mild positive for stocks over the remaining months of the year. Since 1926, a positive January has been followed by S&P…...

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Good Sunday and welcome back Finom Group investors and traders. “Steady as she goes” or “So far so good?” Time will tell, right? How many old adages can you fit into an…...

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With the S&P 500 having recently ascended to a fresh record high after such a strong 2023, it’s natural for investors to worry that valuations have become over-extended. On traditional valuation measures,…...

Welcome back investors/traders! After a rocky start to January 2024, both price and equity market sentiment have renewed bullishness in the 2nd half of January. The momentum from late 2023, demanded some…...

 Plunging Core Inflation and Slower Growth will Force the Fed’s Hand  * The risk of recession persists, though our base case remains a soft landing. The surge in third quarter GDP growth…...

No matter how many different data sets, seasonal patterns, election cycle studies we look at, they all point to the same bullish long-term outcome, and many point to short-term weakness. Weakness is…...

Sentiment: Plenty of believers = tactical risk in early 2024 Sentiment indicators such as Farrell Sentiment, asset manager S&P 500 (SPX) E-mini net futures position and the 25-day put/call have risen, entering…...

Three big things you need to know:  First, across the globe most of our analysts are optimistic on performance in the year ahead, with favorable views on the impact of potentially lower…...

Some of the 21st century’s biggest breakthroughs are happening in health care, transforming the way we diagnose, treat and prevent grave diseases. From gene sequencing and proteomics to the prospect of artificial…...

Welcome back investors and traders! This past week proved a pretty strong bounce-back week for markets after the prior week’s downturn was somewhat to-be-expected. What happens in the week ahead and in…...

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As we entered 2024, investors have been told that just because the calendar changes that doesn’t mean the market trend changes. It turns out, once again, that market sentiment and even price…...

by Michael Cembalest...

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The Major Trend Index held at a neutral reading of zero in the week ended December 22nd. Bullish market action continues to be the main prop under the MTI—and the week’s improvement…...

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We discuss: how S&P 500 valuation is very reasonable as we enter 2024 and this is particularly notable when compared to the 2022 market peak. 2023 is rapidly coming to a close…...

IT’S OFFICIAL!  The S&P 500 has achieved our year-end price target of 4,750, formerly disseminated within our weekly Research Report titled “The Worst Month For Capital Returns In Focus : September 2023.” Below…...

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By Robert Sluymer CMT Equity markets are resolving 2-year trading ranges to the upside – Further upside likely in 2024.  How should investors think about an equity market that rallied 110% off…...

S&P 500’s annual return after a NEGATIVE RETURN year. Average return the next year = 18%. Remember, however, the AVERAGE was never the outcome. Up 7/9 times the next year = 80%+…...

By Ellen Zetner chief U.S. ecoomist: We expect the Fed to hold the policy rate at 5.375% and to cautiously shift communication from how high to how long. We continue to see…...

In 2023, the S&P 500 gained 20% yet most investors sat on the sidelines as many expected the U.S. economy to slip into a recession. And many remained skeptical throughout 2023 because…...

Most of the measures in the MTI’s Sentiment category—including the Bullish Sentiment of stock market newsletter writers—are interpreted in a contrary fashion. It’s far easier to find indicators that track the “emotional”…...

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Since the start of the rate hike cycle in 2022, regional business cycles have weakened, earnings growth has stagnated (S&P 500 2021-2024E EPS: $208-$225, ~2.5% CAGR), and the market has moved sideways…...

Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders. As a reminder, throughout the month of December, our chief equity market strategist Seth Golden will be on vacation, but receiving requests for calls and…...

Context and Comprehension are Key 🔑 A woman without her man is nothing!  A woman: without her, man is nothing! If you would like to watch the video hosted by Finom Group’s…...

CTAs’ net long position in USD/JPY cut by half from its recent peak Macro hedge funds may act on the expectation of a year-end rally. The pick-up in US equity markets continued…...

Seasonal trends are mostly about knowing where to look… and when! For this weekend Research note we are going to explore the big picture perspective, as the decade (2020s) roll forward. Investors…...

NVIDIA reported Oct results (revenue/GMs/EPS ) well above consensus and off of a higher Oct-Qtr revenue base, the team guided to a 10% Q/Q increase in the Jan-Qtr, well-above consensus on continued…...

The Major Trend Index moved up to the neutral zone in the week ended November 17th, winding up a six-week stint in bearish territory. The net score rose two notches to zero,…...

At a time when some are calling for a pause on the development of generative artificial intelligence, Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, has an argument for accelerating the work: AI…...

How about them Small-caps? How about that follow-through? How about the 3-week rally which has seen the S&P 500 rally some 10 percent? That’s right; the S&P 500 (SPX) is up 10%…...

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The Leuthold Group tactical accounts remain positioned defensively, although not to the extent they could be given the bearish weight of the evidence. Net equity exposure in the Core Fund, Core private…...

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The last two trading weeks have not made the bulls whole, but have certainly slashed the hopes of those who were/are positioned bearishly and with the hopes of bad outcomes for equities.…...

In January, the “inventor” of the yield-curve indicator—Campbell Harvey of Duke University—suggested that the inversion of the 10Y/3M spread was “flashing a false signal,” and a U.S. recession would be avoided. But…...

Nobody, not once, not ever, said it would be easy to make money in the financial markets as an investor or a trader. Even with such an understanding, there is a difference…...

Equity sentiment declined for the first time since May Our Sell Side Indicator (SSI) is a contrarian sentiment barometer that tracks sell side strategists’ average recommended allocation to equities in a balanced…...

Since our publication of Cost of Higher for Longer in February, we have seen interest rates across the curve move higher with expectation for rates to remain restrictive for longer. Liquidity continues…...

9 key macro events this week, but Treasury refunding most important arguably. Incoming data likely soft-ish which should help break negative doom loop on stocks.  We discuss: Tireless Ken and team analyzed…...

The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios…...

Markets are showing increasing stress, deteriorating market internals/breadth, and investors will advantage themselves with a game plan. Check out our latest video by clicking the link provided. This is our off-reporting weekend,…...

While there are plenty of events and fundamental data points worth considering, we find many remain fixated on the Fed’s next move and S&P 500 price. These factors appear to be dictating…...

There was a great deal of concern for the manner in which the equity markets closed the week, 2 weeks ago; down Thursday and Friday trading sessions. As mentioned last week: “When…...

A Note: Structurally, the market needs breadth to improve this week, which demands improved performance from Equal-Weights and Small-Caps! Without such improvements, if not leadership, the market remains vulnerable to headline, downside…...

Despite another positive weekly performance by the S&P 500 (SPX) this past trading week, it didn’t really feel that way based on the declines in the final 2 trading sessions of the…...

In lieu of our regularly scheduled State of the Market video analysis, this week we offer a general public video to review some of the market conditions and macro developments since August.…...

Fiscal constraints limit policy response at a time when cyclical risks persist. Market breadth reflects this dynamic as the S&P 500 defends key technical support. We share takeaways from our roundtable with…...

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The analysis and Research within comes via the monthly Macro-Memo from RBC Capital Wealth Advisors: We have been predicting a recession for quite some time. The possibility first came into focus in…...

The weekend is where many a discipline and devoted investor/portfolio manager spend most of their free time in the exercise of macro-market research and/or due diligence, as it is more profoundly referenced.…...

“The most important financial lessons aren’t learned slowly during bull markets. They are seared into your brain in bear markets” ~Brian Feroldi If you would like to watch this week’s State of the…...

1. The economy is holding up better than expected, but recession risk remains. In the third quarter, easing inflation and stronger economic growth helped fuel optimism for a soft landing. However, monthly…...

Thank goodness that is over with; September and the historically weaker returns associated with Q3 are complete! The period that just ended did very much live up to its historical performance, disrupting…...

 On markets, not much has changed since our August Rasputin piece. While most leading indicators point to weaker US growth by Q1, the expected decline is modest as potential recessions go. Tighter…...